Ian Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The NAM looks pretty sick later for torn potential still. Will be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Main bulk of rain should hold off until the late afternoon and evening... more vigorous precip. possible as convection fires to the south and pushes NE/NNE. If the low goes to our west I doubt we get as much as the weekend near dc unless we get trained later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Rain 50/48 0.41" It is going to do have do some raining if 2-3" is really in the cards today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 .62 so far at BWI - any chance for thunder today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The front stalled out over night almost on top of me. The rain plume moving north along frontal arrea is about to move in. A switch to snow in the forecast tonight with some light accumualtions. Event total is at 0.97". My backyard is saturated to the point that water squeezes out when you walk on it. The big rivers, Ohio and Kanawha, are at bank full and above flood stage in some areas. The little stream in my neighborhood was only about half full most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Gotta say, this doesn't look like I thought it would... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Gotta say, this doesn't look like I thought it would... What was it supposed to look like? Looks pretty close to what I had pictured... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 What was it supposed to look like? Looks pretty close to what I had pictured... You didn't expect a precip shield stretching much further south? This doesn't look like 2" for DC, even if the mass over the Ohio valley does drift in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The NAM looks pretty sick later for torn potential still. Will be interesting... South and east tho, correct? I haven't been following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 You didn't expect a precip shield stretching much further south? This doesn't look like 2" for DC, even if the mass over the Ohio valley does drift in this direction. Nope... lots of convective storms in the Southeast that are cutting off the moisture flow. Storms will redevelop this afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and the secondary low as the low tries to pull in moisture off the Gulf. Depending on when the storms get organized, DC and points east should see a good round of rain this evening and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 South and east tho, correct? I haven't been following. Main threat is to the south where the surface temps are expected to cooperate the best. However, with clearing to the north often getting underdone on the models in these kinds of situations, the DC area could have a decent play at storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The SPC 13z update: ...NC/VA... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST VA INTO CENTRAL GA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/VA BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA SOUTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THE RISK OF AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE COAST WHERE A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT. ------ This morning's vis. sat: Nice little clear slot in VA/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Some of the locally run models actually look pretty robust for a line of something later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Had 0.90" at 7:00 this morning. Over an inch now. Crossed the Potomac at Williamsport. River is really high already, and looks like it will be flirting with the Canal towpath later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 LWX ARW model for 00z tonight (this is the 09z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 South and east tho, correct? I haven't been following. could be up toward here. lacking instability is probably an issue. but the 500/850 placements are pretty classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 could be up toward here. lacking instability is probably an issue. but the 500/850 placements are pretty classic. Similar thoughts after looking at a couple things. I know that SPC had been saying that lower dewpoints/temps might actually enhance a tornado threat but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 NAM suggests maybe another .5-.75 IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 NAM suggests maybe another .5-.75 IMBY. Sitting at 0.87" at my house, so another .5 to .75 would be around 1.5" total. That would be a NAM win over the GFS if it happens that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Sitting at 0.87" at my house, so another .5 to .75 would be around 1.5" total. That would be a NAM win over the GFS if it happens that way. i think the general idea of some high totals was OK but it looks to me like places northwest of I-95 before getting into oro effects will end up less than modeled over the past few days. just east of 95 seems to be the "sweet spot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The SPC 13z update: ...NC/VA... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST VA INTO CENTRAL GA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/VA BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA SOUTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THE RISK OF AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE COAST WHERE A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT. ------ This morning's vis. sat: Nice little clear slot in VA/NC. congrats Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Updated HWO from LWX still mentions potential of a tornado and wind damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 As of 11am - 1.16 inches as fallen so far at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I thought I saw someone leading animals into a boat in pairs this morning coming to work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Just had a pretty strong wind gust and quick heavy burst of rain in Bowie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Forecasted - 2+ inches Measured - .3 inches Unless something big happens this afternoon - and it won't because convection rarely occurs here - another epic fail IMBY. The streak (since Feb 6, 2010) continues...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 1630 SPC OTLK http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I thought I saw someone leading animals into a boat in pairs this morning coming to work... I hope he/she wasn't on a cell phone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Forecasted - 2+ inches Measured - .3 inches Unless something big happens this afternoon - and it won't because convection rarely occurs here - another epic fail IMBY. The streak (since Feb 6, 2010) continues...... lol Of course stuff is supposed to happen this afternoon/evening... that's what I've been trying to tell everyone We're not done yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 lol Of course stuff is supposed to happen this afternoon/evening... that's what I've been trying to tell everyone We're not done yet! The stuff out west will move and fill in right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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