12z EURO LOVES THE MID ATLANTIC

[Ger]

It sort'a looks like the s/w actually comes in to the US along the OR coastline then heads across ID/WY. Thereafter, it heads east to IA and then SE to right over top RIC. If I'm reading the crappy maps right then this isn't a clipper. The EC "makes sense" as far as its precip field in relation to the vort track and all that. My only reservation is that this is only slightly better than the scenario that typically busts around here. The complete lack of southern stream participation (contrary to last year's 12/5 event) doesn't help to mitigate those concerns.

Thanks. Any Miller B around here though is disquieting I can agree with that.

[+SN]

Gassing up the bus.

[MidlothianWX]

Gassing up the bus.

You must first construct the bus.

[Master of Disaster]

State College mentioning this now in the Disco. Not sure they can state that this looks to be all snow for PA in there much more.

[clskinsfan]

18Z GFS has nothing. Usually its the one dropping bombs on us. interesting.

[+SN]

18Z GFS has nothing. Usually its the one dropping bombs on us. interesting.

As long as the EURO has the threat I'm fine.

If it was every model saying a blizzard except the euro i'd be worried.

[Dr No]

GFS is putrid. It has the "Clipper", but takes it into the upper lakes and shears it out as opposed to dropping it under the blocking and 50/50. It appears the GFS is an outlier in taking the west coast closed 500mb LP and retograding it further west off of the CA coast. This does not allow the ridging to develop over the Rockies to push the LP ESE, hence it takes it right into the lakes and shears it out. The other models do not retrograde it.

Even though I think the GFS is bogus, it cant be discounted as a possible solution 6 days out... It worries me a bit that the GFS scored a big coup in the early November "1950-like" storm that the Euro and GGEM were advertizing.

[Dr No]

Tonights DGEX has a storm for the MA Sun/Mon .... at least 2-4. Now you know how much of an outlier the GFS is today.

[usedtobe]

It sort'a looks like the s/w actually comes in to the US along the OR coastline then heads across ID/WY. Thereafter, it heads east to IA and then SE to right over top RIC. If I'm reading the crappy maps right then this isn't a clipper. The EC "makes sense" as far as its precip field in relation to the vort track and all that. My only reservation is that this is only slightly better than the scenario that typically busts around here. The complete lack of southern stream participation (contrary to last year's 12/5 event) doesn't help to mitigate those concerns.

I agree but did post this elsewhere

The European model ensemble mean supports the operational European model which is very bullish on the storm. The GFS and its ensembles tend to shear the system out and keep it too weak to produce any snow. Both camps are equally likely. That said, in the past the GFS has sometimes tended to shear systems too much keeping the any low too weak to produce any snow. The threat certainly is worth watching. Like you, I'm not a fan of Miller B type systems, there are too many things that can go wrong. When it get into the 72 range, I'll be more excited. Also if the GFS starts evolving towards it's solution. If the ultimate solution is somewhere between the euro and GFS, I don't like out chances.