12z EURO LOVES THE MID ATLANTIC

[yoda]

Link??

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!0!North%20America!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2010112912!!/

That is for the free precip maps

[yoda]

TBH, will be interesting to see if LWX puts something in its AFD mentioning this... is Listemaa doing the LR nowadays for the afternoon shift?

[Midlo Snow Maker]

500mb looks somewhat close to nov 11 1987 ric got 4.5" not sure what dc got

12z euro

Nov 11 1987

[Kmlwx]

i've really not paid that much attention.. partly because it's december (or will be)...

im not sold this will be a snowstorm for us, there is plenty of time for it to get screwed up... last yr was the exception. i expect it to get worse but with the look it might happen.

Seems like a good posture at this point. I'm prepared for no snow to fall this year as much as it'll hurt we've got to get back to normal DCdissapointment eventually.

[yoda]

500mb looks somewhat close to nov 11 1987 ric got 4.5" not sure what dc got

November 11, 1987: The Veteran's Day Storm will not be forgotten by many Washington travelers. Almost a foot (11.5 inches) fell at National Airport. Prince Georges County, MD was hard hit with up to 13 inches of snow falling in a short amount of time. It caught motorists off guard and stranded cars on the Capitol Beltway. There were so many cars that snow plows could not get through to open the clogged arteries. Cars littered the roadway for more than 24 hours. The event precipitated the development of the Washington Metropolitan Area Snow Plan to facilitate preparedness and response to future storms.

This storm struck before the days of lightning detection networks and Doppler weather radar. When thunderstorms began dumping heavy snow over the Fredericksburg VA, forecasters had no idea. The storm moved northeast across the southern Metropolitan area (Prince Georges County). It was not until the fast accumulating snow hit Camp Springs, where at the time the Weather Forecast Office was located, did forecasters realize what was happening.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/DC-Winters.htm

[Ian]

500mb looks somewhat close to nov 11 1987 ric got 4.5" not sure what dc got

12z euro

Nov 11 1987

i'd take it..

[yoda]

i'd take it..

Leesburg would be screwed again

[Ian]

Seems like a good posture at this point. I'm prepared for no snow to fall this year as much as it'll hurt we've got to get back to normal DCdissapointment eventually.

i've been a believer in the blocking over the rest all along, and in my mind have seen dc getting like 20-25" this winter so i wouldnt be shocked. but we sorta need to go back to the pre 09-10 way of thinking as well just to be safe...

[Kmlwx]

i've been a believer in the blocking over the rest all along, and in my mind have seen dc getting like 20-25" this winter so i wouldnt be shocked. but we sorta need to go back to the pre 09-10 way of thinking as well just to be safe...

Perhaps we have a little bit of gas left in the tank to get us through December before we fall apart. One can only hope I guess. I am excited but nail biting as well.

[Ian]

Perhaps we have a little bit of gas left in the tank to get us through December before we fall apart. One can only hope I guess. I am excited but nail biting as well.

well most yrs we're digging out in this range only to be disappointed later... let's see what happens the next few runs, i'd be more excited in elevation of n md etc.

[Kmlwx]

well most yrs we're digging out in this range only to be disappointed later... let's see what happens the next few runs, i'd be more excited in elevation of n md etc.

What are you thinking for the second one that is more suppressed at this point?

[Ji]

beautiful run .71

[The Dude]

im getting that tingle again

Sounds like a personal problem...

500mb looks somewhat close to nov 11 1987 ric got 4.5" not sure what dc got

That was a great storm. I had 10 inches just north of the city.

[yoda]

I can't seem to get the blown up images to post from what I saved into paint

[clskinsfan]

The 87 storm only gave us a couple of inches out here. But i would take it.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I can't seem to get the blown up images to post from what I saved into paint

[Ian]

i want to see the 500mb feature further south in this range based on the free site imagery. if we can get that in the next few runs this might be more legit. otherwise it's good to have a threat but im not counting my inches (or those in the suburbs) just yet.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

12z JMA

[Ji]

12z JMA

What the fook is going on in novia scotia?

[WxUSAF]

What the fook is going on in novia scotia?

That map is a whole big bag of WTF.

[Ger]

Glad to see the EURO suppress next week's system: perfect! I was getting concerned about being so close to the bullseye this far out

[Dr No]

What the fook is going on in novia scotia?

Severe T-Storms. Thats some weather you never see in the Leesburg Desert.

[J.Mike]

Randy, is there gas in the bus?

[Ender]

While I'm as excited as everyone else is, and I'm reassured by the historical precedence that says the DC metro area typically does quite well when a northern stream shortwave dives SE and redevelops just off the mid-Atlantic coast...it'd be foolish to get our hopes up at this point. There's probably some chance that this won't work out to our favor.

[Ger]

Randy, is there gas in the bus?

[Midlo Snow Maker]

While I'm as excited as everyone else is, and I'm reassured by the historical precedence that says the DC metro area typically does quite well when a northern stream shortwave dives SE and redevelops just off the mid-Atlantic coast...it'd be foolish to get our hopes up at this point. There's probably some chance that this won't work out to our favor.

yea this thing looks like a typical miller b it will trend north and hit the north east, and probably won't loop back in but just be a slow mover. go with climo just like last winter

[Ger]

yea this thing looks like a typical miller b it will trend north and hit the north east, and probably won't loop back in but just be a slow mover. go with climo just like last winter

This clipper is diving in from Saskatchewan, right? More longitude for it to dive far enough south to keep us in the snow. A lot of those Miller B's that screwed DC were Alberta clippers working with less longitude to move far enough south before beginning W-E movement. Well, that's what I think anyhow.

[Dr No]

Dec 6-8 2003 was probably one of the best "true" Miller Bs that worked out in our favor.

[Ger]

Dec 6-8 2003 was probably one of the best "true" Miller Bs that worked out in our favor.

Not sure but I think that one gave me rain in Prince Georges County. Ugh.Too far south and east. IAD-Baltimore and N+W did better.

[Ender]

This clipper is diving in from Saskatchewan, right? More longitude for it to dive far enough south to keep us in the snow. A lot of those Miller B's that screwed DC were Alberta clippers working with less longitude to move far enough south before beginning W-E movement. Well, that's what I think anyhow.

It sort'a looks like the s/w actually comes in to the US along the OR coastline then heads across ID/WY. Thereafter, it heads east to IA and then SE to right over top RIC. If I'm reading the crappy maps right then this isn't a clipper. The EC "makes sense" as far as its precip field in relation to the vort track and all that. My only reservation is that this is only slightly better than the scenario that typically busts around here. The complete lack of southern stream participation (contrary to last year's 12/5 event) doesn't help to mitigate those concerns.