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March 9-10 Observations


NavarreDon

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The line has finally got here and I have to say it's more impressive than I thought it would be. What stands out is how huge the rain drops are...really really big drops. Combine that with the intense rates and the ground went from wet to water covered in literally a minute. It's a shame it won't last long but at least the good rain is finally here.

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Been raining here lightly for the last 2 hours. I don't like how the nw part of GA cleared so quickly, makes me wonder how much I'll get. I still think 1.5" or so here is a good bet if we dont' get robbed some good rates, but now I'm beginning to think the re-development overnight that occurs from the incoming sharp trough will benefit areas to my east much more than here and the Upstate. Looks like central and eastern NC will probably get just as much or more than the area between CLT and GSP region, but still is a good looking event and has been fun to forecast. There will probably be an intersting look to the radars late tonight and tomorrow in the Carolinas.

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Light rain falling here as well. Temp at 54°/48° DP. I posted on the March thread regarding that one area of precipitation back SW that appears to be making a trip across Upstate SC and southern NC. I believe that will be the point where areas like Charlotte, Rock Hill, and especially in places such as Gaffney will receive some really heavy rainfall although I've been told there has not been much, if not at all, in the way of any thunder associated.

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Gig time shafting up this way as have only received .68 storm total. Just missed some heavy action just to my east in the Bristol / Kingsport area of which is producing flash flooding.

Although I like the excitement of major weather occurences, i'm glad we missed out on this one as we're well above average on precip for not only the month but the year now, which stands @ 10.84". So, no complaints with this one here.

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Big time shafting up this way as have only received .68 storm total. Just missed some heavy action just to my east in the Bristol / Kingsport area of which is producing flash flooding.

Although I like the excitement of major weather occurences, i'm glad we missed out on this one as we're well above average on precip for not only the month but the year now, which stands @ 10.84". So, no complaints with this one here.

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Per Matt East FB page.

Not liking how the radar is looking right now for a big rain event I-85 corridor. Most spots might top out at an inch or so, give or take,

Yeah it's not as impressive as it looked like it was going to be. Looks too progressive and it seems convection from ga to the gulf coast is going to rob areas further to the north. Disappointing as earlier models runs totally blew the heavy convection/rain along the gulf coast and weakened it too fast...which of course hurts areas to the north. Still looks like a good rain, 1 to 2 inches along the 85 corridor but the excessive 3 or 4 inches seems out of reach.

That line of rain helped me out a lot. It dumped 0.65 in 15 minutes. Total now is around 0.85.

Ground is saturated here though..here is a couple of pics taken about 15 minutes after the line moved through. It takes either a lot of rain or saturated conditions to create this much water in the fields here..especially this quick.

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post-12-0-60506800-1299696532.jpg

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No doubt the ground is saturated. It had only been raining 30 mins this morning and the roads were covered with water as it washed up from the ditches.

Yeah it's not as impressive as it looked like it was going to be. Looks too progressive and it seems convection from ga to the gulf coast is going to rob areas further to the north. Dissappointing as earlier models runs totally blew the heavy convection/rain along the gulf coast and weakening it too fast. Still looks like a good rain, 1 to 2 inches along the 85 corridor but the excessive 3 or 4 inches seems out of reach.

That line of rain helped me out a lot. It dumped 0.65 in 15 minutes. Total now is around 0.85.

Ground is saturated here though..here is a couple of pics taken about 15 minutes after the line moved through. It takes either a lot of rain or saturated conditions to create this much water in the fields here..especially this quick.

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Yeah it's not as impressive as it looked like it was going to be. Looks too progressive and it seems convection from ga to the gulf coast is going to rob areas further to the north. Disappointing as earlier models runs totally blew the heavy convection/rain along the gulf coast and weakened it too fast...which of course hurts areas to the north. Still looks like a good rain, 1 to 2 inches along the 85 corridor but the excessive 3 or 4 inches seems out of reach.

I had a pit-like feeling in my stomach that something like this would occur with all the storminess in areas along and north of the Gulf Coast. Right now anyone can tell that convection's playing around with our precipitation on radar which is showing the heaviest portion staying just to our south and progress more eastward instead of northeastward. At least some folks got in on an inch or more from what I've heard but as you stated, it's not looking to be what the models (like the NAM or Canadian) was spitting out earlier. Can't complain though. Us here in the Carolinas will take what we can get if it is going to help alleviate the drought some.

Still sitting at 54°/49° DP. Currently showering outside.

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RUC looks good for western North Carolina. I am expected around 2 inches of rain here with some areas picking up as much as 4 inches in the foothills and western Piedmont here in North Carolina. Heavy rain is continuing with .32 in the bucket so far. Looking good so far, hoping to get around 2 inches of rain. Any more would result in major flooding, and I do not want any of that.

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Yeah it's not as impressive as it looked like it was going to be. Looks too progressive and it seems convection from ga to the gulf coast is going to rob areas further to the north. Disappointing as earlier models runs totally blew the heavy convection/rain along the gulf coast and weakened it too fast...which of course hurts areas to the north. Still looks like a good rain, 1 to 2 inches along the 85 corridor but the excessive 3 or 4 inches seems out of reach.

That line of rain helped me out a lot. It dumped 0.65 in 15 minutes. Total now is around 0.85.

Ground is saturated here though..here is a couple of pics taken about 15 minutes after the line moved through. It takes either a lot of rain or saturated conditions to create this much water in the fields here..especially this quick.

nice pics - i was trying to figure out how to describe the standing water and the pics say it all! most fields and yards have standing water in them and some of the ditches on the sides of the roads are spilling over. its still pouring down rain but i think my gauge is broken since it only has 2.54" lol sure seems like a lot more. of course having to be out walking and driving in the deluge may make it seem worse than it is :scooter:

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Definitely lowering my expectations now...it does look like a shafting might occur around my area. The initial band is weakening up here esp. once its east of the mountains, and the culprit is probably the huge snake of convection. Plus there's no signs or redevelopment to the west in GA, and the latest RUC only re-develops the moisture early AM east of I-77, which leaves this area just on the western edge. But who knows, any slight error on the upper feature tonight and early tomorrow could still pull the heavy rain back west some but I'm not banking on that here anymore, however for CLT to Boone and east into the central part of NC it could happen. A 2" rain storm here is just so rare, you can't ever bank on it for sure. However not so in the mtns and in GA...pretty amazing to watch a system with so much potential on many levels just go belly up at the last minute, but I think I'm used to it by now.

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Definitely lowering my expectations now...it does look like a shafting might occur around my area. The initial band is weakening up here esp. once its east of the mountains, and the culprit is probably the huge snake of convection. Plus there's no signs or redevelopment to the west in GA, and the latest RUC only re-develops the moisture early AM east of I-77, which leaves this area just on the western edge. But who knows, any slight error on the upper feature tonight and early tomorrow could still pull the heavy rain back west some but I'm not banking on that here anymore, however for CLT to Boone and east into the central part of NC it could happen. A 2" rain storm here is just so rare, you can't ever bank on it for sure. However not so in the mtns and in GA...pretty amazing to watch a system with so much potential on many levels just go belly up at the last minute, but I think I'm used to it by now.

sadly that looks to be true :( i am so tired of storms looking so good until they are in progress and then have them fizzle out. although i cant complain since i broke the 2" mark i suppose. the radar looks horrid with the back edge moving through ga and no redevelopment (at least i sure dont see any). :angry:

looks like dacula might be the big ga winner (at least so far) with almost 3.5"

Lightning Strikes...

:lol: well that would explain why i havent heard any thunder....nice noticeable hole once you get ne of atl. i was thinking as heavy as the echos were (and as dark as it was outside) that we'd get some thunder and lightning. (thats what i get for thinking i guess :guitar: )

so we can get enough of a cad to stop storms from firing when we dont want the wedge, but when we really want a nice winter cad with precip moving in they are no where to be seen

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sadly that looks to be true :( i am so tired of storms looking so good until they are in progress and then have them fizzle out. although i cant complain since i broke the 2" mark i suppose. the radar looks horrid with the back edge moving through ga and no redevelopment (at least i sure dont see any). :angry:

looks like dacula might be the big ga winner (at least so far) with almost 3.5"

:lol: well that would explain why i havent heard any thunder....nice noticeable hole once you get ne of atl. i was thinking as heavy as the echos were (and as dark as it was outside) that we'd get some thunder and lightning. (thats what i get for thinking i guess :guitar: )

Hmm, radar estimates show around 1" for Dacula and over 4" for Rome.

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Hmm, radar estimates show around 1" for Dacula and over 4" for Rome.

i was talking about the report from daculawx (the poster) where i thought i saw he had about 3.45 in one of his posts. radar estimates for mby are still showing up less than 2" but i have about 2.5 so far

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Bingo.

Just checked his website and it shows 1.35" today.:thumbsdown:

Looks like my rain is done. 2.48" just NE of downtown Dahlonega. NGTim just SW of Dahlonega got a decent amount more than I did.

lol, although it looks like i misread his post....it was his hourly rate not total amount. i was just zipping through the thread while trying to work :rolleyes:

3.45"/hour here now.

looks like its winding down here too - didnt get much more from my last post (total is 2.57). i was hoping we'd get the 3-4" so while its sort of a downer we didnt, i am still very happy with what we got since its still a really good rainfall. it has been dry and we really needed it

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It won't stop raining. I thought we were supposed to be in a drought. :gun_bandana::axe: Bloo Q Kazoo is not happy.

LOL, you are. Out of the last 12 years, only 3 have been above normal. 9 were below, usually massively below. This graphic doesn't include 2010 data, another below normal year (and GSP proper was much higher than most of the upstate that year)

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for folks who know Cullowhee...

Parts of the Tuck have begun to flood (minor).

Some pics will follow. Im headin out right now to see whats up (no pun intended).

The little Tennessee is up too. Are you ever over this way any? My wife had to go to Asheville today, said the rain over there was not too bad.

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so far around .40" here and only a few more hours to go before the backend arrives...so the multi inch amounts the models had east of the mountains are probably going to bust esp near GSP CLT HKY area, but enough building could occur overnight and early am to help out further east with more increase in totals. The new line is showing signs of forming in eastern MS and central TN right now so that has to be watched.

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