MW/GL/OV Winter 2010-11 Talk

[Chicago WX]

Well met winter is getting closer, so this thread may have a short life...but still enough time to discuss the possibilities/outlooks/thoughts/etc. Maybe we can move our outlooks over here, posted at Eastern, that some have provided.

[Chicago WX]

My guess for this winter.

My predictions for LAF

Snowfall: 25.5" (right around normal)

Biggest single storm total: 6.0" (I like sometime in January)

Number of Ice Storm Warnings: 1

Number of Freezing Rain Advisories: 2

Warmest temp: 65º (for D-J-F)

Coldest temp: -10º (5 total low temps below zero)

[Harry]

Well met winter is getting closer, so this thread may have a short life...but still enough time to discuss the possibilities/outlooks/thoughts/etc. Maybe we can move our outlooks over here, posted at Eastern, that some have provided.

I am gonna fix that snowfall one first.. The one i forgot to put numbers on.

[cromartie]

My thoughts for the upcoming winter....

Nov 15-30: Winterlike pattern, chance of snowfalls

Dec 1-20: Warm and dry

Dec 21-Jan 10: Winterlike pattern, best chance of significant snow

Jan 11-Feb 25: Warm and dry

Feb 26-Mar 10: Winterlike pattern returns, more snow chances

Mar 10-onward: CIAO winter

[LizardMafia]

Looks like a good forecast.. Just not sure about the whole above normal precipitation..

It's just that we have been waiting for a change to wetter conditions, which still hasn't arrived.

[Powerball]

Looks like a good forecast.. Just not sure about the whole above normal precipitation..

It's just that we have been waiting for a change to wetter conditions, which still hasn't arrived.

The transition normally doesn't take place until early-mid December.

[snowstormcanuck]

The transition normally doesn't take place until early-mid December.

Powerball,

What was your handle over at eastern?

[Allsnow]

This is chi wx stats that i had saved on my computer....dont know if he still has it.

nina winters and snow amounts

Season....Chicago......Minneapolis......Madison.....Grand Rapids......Detroit.........Toronto........St. Louis........Kansas City

1890-91.......21.6"............33.1".............44.3"............NA..................27.0"............61 .0"............32.5"...............26.3"

1897-98.......36.8"............31.3".............70.7"............54.4"...............43.8"............55 .4"............9.8".................36.3"

1903-04.......59.5"............46.1".............41.0"............77.8"...............57.0"............61 .7"............26.6"...............11.0"

1912-13.......19.1"............47.4".............34.9"............42.0"...............33.3"............39 .7"............15.7"...............17.6"

1915-16.......26.1"............50.7".............30.6"............55.8"...............46.0"............68 .7"............31.3"...............27.8"

1926-27.......23.8"............30.1".............43.8"............37.4"...............47.5"............45 .5"............19.2"...............12.9"

1942-43.......45.2"............34.4".............53.5"............64.1"...............44.4"............72 .6"............16.2"...............19.5"

1964-65.......59.5"............73.7".............50.9"............101.4".............49.2"............71. 6".............25.1"..............29.8"

1970-71.......37.9"............54.7".............67.4"............101.0".............35.4"............73. 9".............9.4"................20.5"

1973-74.......58.3"............51.2".............42.9"............64.4"...............49.2"............53 .1".............42.4"..............13.9"

1988-89.......24.5"............70.1".............36.2"............62.4"...............25.1"............34 .3".............23.8"...............6.9"

1995-96.......23.9"............55.5".............60.5"............79.7"...............27.6"............56 .2".............26.0"..............19.1"

1998-99.......50.9"............56.5".............38.1"............76.7"...............49.5"............63 .9".............15.8"..............12.9"

2007-08.......60.3"............44.6".............101.4"..........107.0"..............71.7"............82. 6"............30.2"...............24.1"

[BowMeHunter]

Gotta say I'm shaking like the last leave on a tree about this winter.. I have no clue what to expect with regards to storm track. Right now my guess is clippers jipping me until they get east... Cutters to my west when the southern stream can hook up with the northern stream.. And late bloomers hammering the eastern lakes/OV.. Temps I think are a lock to come in above average for the winter.. Just gonna need good timing and track when the cold air is around.. Basically another share the wealth winter like last yr with some area's doing quite better than others just depending who gets the better of the storm tracks.

[Chicago WX]

This is chi wx stats that i had saved on my computer....dont know if he still has it.

nina winters and snow amounts

Season....Chicago......Minneapolis......Madison.....Grand Rapids......Detroit.........Toronto........St. Louis........Kansas City

1890-91.......21.6"............33.1".............44.3"............NA..................27.0"............61 .0"............32.5"...............26.3"

1897-98.......36.8"............31.3".............70.7"............54.4"...............43.8"............55 .4"............9.8".................36.3"

1903-04.......59.5"............46.1".............41.0"............77.8"...............57.0"............61 .7"............26.6"...............11.0"

1912-13.......19.1"............47.4".............34.9"............42.0"...............33.3"............39 .7"............15.7"...............17.6"

1915-16.......26.1"............50.7".............30.6"............55.8"...............46.0"............68 .7"............31.3"...............27.8"

1926-27.......23.8"............30.1".............43.8"............37.4"...............47.5"............45 .5"............19.2"...............12.9"

1942-43.......45.2"............34.4".............53.5"............64.1"...............44.4"............72 .6"............16.2"...............19.5"

1964-65.......59.5"............73.7".............50.9"............101.4".............49.2"............71. 6".............25.1"..............29.8"

1970-71.......37.9"............54.7".............67.4"............101.0".............35.4"............73. 9".............9.4"................20.5"

1973-74.......58.3"............51.2".............42.9"............64.4"...............49.2"............53 .1".............42.4"..............13.9"

1988-89.......24.5"............70.1".............36.2"............62.4"...............25.1"............34 .3".............23.8"...............6.9"

1995-96.......23.9"............55.5".............60.5"............79.7"...............27.6"............56 .2".............26.0"..............19.1"

1998-99.......50.9"............56.5".............38.1"............76.7"...............49.5"............63 .9".............15.8"..............12.9"

2007-08.......60.3"............44.6".............101.4"..........107.0"..............71.7"............82. 6"............30.2"...............24.1"

Unfortunately I didn't have it saved, but a big thank you for saving, and posting it here. The above Nina winters are ones that follow an El Nino FYI.

[Allsnow]

Unfortunately I didn't have it saved, but a big thank you for saving, and posting it here. The above Nina winters are ones that follow an El Nino FYI.

Np, you put alot of work into that. Im sure people are thankful you took the time to look that information up

[Jim Martin]

I get the notion also we will have a busy winter here in northern Ohio.

[Chicago Storm]

As posted on Eastern...

First T, 0.1" and 1.0" of snowfall the past few years here and at ORD.

First Trace+

................SNW................ORD.......

AVG..............................Oct 30th

'09-'10....Nov 25th(0.2")....Oct 16th(T)

'08-'09.....Oct 26th(T)......Oct 26th(T)

'07-'08.....Nov 5th(T)........Nov 7th(T)

'06-'07..........................Oct 12th(0.3")

'05-'06...........................Oct 23rd(T)

First 0.1"+

................SNW.................ORD.......

AVG...............................Nov 16th

'09-'10....Nov 25th(0.2")....Dec 4th(0.2")

'08-'09....Nov 16th(0.5")....Nov 16th(0.1")

'07-'08....Nov 21st(0.1")....Nov 21st(0.2")

'06-'07...........................Oct 12th(0.3")

'05-'06...........................Nov 16th(0.1")

First 1.0"+

................SNW.................ORD.......

AVG...............................Dec 2nd

'09-'10....Dec 7th(1.3")....Dec 7th(2.1")

'08-'09....Dec 1st(3.5")....Dec 1st(2.7")

'07-'08....Dec 4th(6.7")....Dec 4th(3.4)

'06-'07..........................Dec 1st(5.8")

'05-'06..........................Nov 23rd(1.0")

[wxdudemike]

Looks like we're starting to warm in the Pacific some, although I don't have the sub surface maps readily available. Any thoughts from the pros on this?

[Hoosier]

Here's Brett Anderson's interpretation of the Euro monthlies:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/41689/new-updated-computer-model-forecast-for-the-winter.asp

[cromartie]

Here's Brett Anderson's interpretation of the Euro monthlies:

http://www.accuweath...-the-winter.asp

98-99

Major torch here in Feb 99, hit 68F set all-time monthly record and many degrees above previous record.

Remember a lot of that above normal precip could fall in the form of rain--especially from MKE south. With normal highs in the upper 20s to low 30s throughout winter, it does NOT take much heat to make it rain. And the rainstorms could be followed by seasonable to slightly below seasonable temps which would keep departures in check overall.

[Hoosier]

Here is my call originally posted in mid October

Snowfall guesses for select cities (first flake to last flake):

ORD: 45-55"

MKE: 50-60"

GRB: 50-60"

DSM: 50-60"

MCI: 25-30"

STL: 20-25"

IND: 25-30"

CMH: 25-30"

DTW: 45-55"

Special LAF guesses:

Seasonal snow: 30-35"

6+" events: 2

Measurable snow days (0.1" or greater): 25-30

[Hoosier]

98-99

Major torch here in Feb 99, hit 68F set all-time monthly record and many degrees above previous record.

Remember a lot of that above normal precip could fall in the form of rain--especially from MKE south. With normal highs in the upper 20s to low 30s throughout winter, it does NOT take much heat to make it rain. And the rainstorms could be followed by seasonable to slightly below seasonable temps which would keep departures in check overall.

There's a difference between simple warmer than average and something extreme like that. It's going to be hard to match the warmth of 98-99 especially in the northern tier.

[cromartie]

EURO monthly outlook looks similar to this. Add a little warmth to northern Canada and confine the cold to Alaska and perfect.

[Hoosier]

crom, if this is the base map, what if any modifications would you make?

[Hoosier]

nevermind

[cromartie]

Where can I get data on the current Nina to overlay this?

[cromartie]

crom, if this is the base map, what if any modifications would you make?

Personally I don't like that map because it grossly exaggerates contour lines. I like smoothed maps like posted above and nothing is that extreme in the map.

[Hoosier]

Personally I don't like that map because it grossly exaggerates contour lines. I like smoothed maps like posted above and nothing is that extreme in the map.

The reason it looks less extreme is because yours is in Celsius.

[cromartie]

The reason it looks less extreme is because yours is in Celsius.

Hmmm my mistake. Thought they were all in (F). I doubt we see a 98-99 winter, I'm just saying the similarities are there. It won't be a polar opposite of that winter and that I'm sure of. I think the ninas of 07-08 and 08-09 were oddities here. Will be waiting many years for heavy snow like that again.

[Hoosier]

Hmmm my mistake. Thought they were all in (F). I doubt we see a 98-99 winter, I'm just saying the similarities are there. It won't be a polar opposite of that winter and that I'm sure of. I think the ninas of 07-08 and 08-09 were oddities here. Will be waiting many years for heavy snow like that again.

07-08/08-09 were definitely very snowy and I don't think anyone should expect winters like that every time there is a Nina.

[Stebo]

Here's Brett Anderson's interpretation of the Euro monthlies:

http://www.accuweath...-the-winter.asp

Of course he would be calling warm and bringing up warm, his original forecast is more on fire than a cromartie or gibbs post.

[snowstormcanuck]

Of course he would be calling warm and bringing up warm, his original forecast is more on fire than a cromartie or gibbs post.

Are you implying that Brett Anderson has some sort of bias? I admit I don't follow him closely but from what I've seen from him the last couple of years, he seems pretty balanced to me.

[Stebo]

Are you implying that Brett Anderson has some sort of bias? I admit I don't follow him closely but from what I've seen from him the last couple of years, he seems pretty balanced to me.

From what I seen he has been pretty warm the last few years, I'd just take it for what its worth.

[snowstormcanuck]

From what I seen he has been pretty warm the last few years, I'd just take it for what its worth.

hmm...I'll ask Ottawa Blizzard about this. He seems to follow Brett fairly closely. I thought he was pretty objective but I may be missing something.