Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Lol at the Euro snowstorm on Saturday. What a torch it has for next week. 2 days at least of 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 But what is the Niña is weak, Jerry? Wouldn't that portend a negative NAO and more cooperative Pacific as we saw in January 2009 with the cold outbreak? Or are you expecting a moderate/strong Niña? I don't think that seems likely given the vast amount of warmth in the subsurface of the ENSO regions. The 0-300m Ocean Heat Content is now above average due to how much the warmth has spread eastwards from Indonesia. I'm starting to believe a weak Niño is more probable than a moderate/strong La Niña, honestly, despite what historical climatology tells us about multi-year ENSO events and the staying power of a strong Niña that follows a strong Niño. What say you about the developing warmth in the subsurface, Jerry? If the Nina is weak, yes winter will likely be better but I expect a mdt to strong one. Again, it is a year out so take it with a grain of salt but my sense is next winter we pay the piper in a big way with possibly 50% or more below normal snowfall. As far as warm subsurface now......probably transient. Look carefully in about 5 months...I think the Nina dye will be cast by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Lol at the Euro snowstorm on Saturday. What a torch it has for next week. 2 days at least of 70's I don't know about a snowstorm but a sloppy couple inches up north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 16/13, Nice having some fresh snow on the snow pack. My early AM ski tour was nice and quiet. Looks like a bit more snow/ice here tonight and tomorrow. Euro is interesting. Funny how when peple don't have snow on the ground or haven't seen snow fall in a few weeks they get dismissive of the possibility for snow. Oh, save the climo comments.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 If the Nina is weak, yes winter will likely be better but I expect a mdt to strong one. Again, it is a year out so take it with a grain of salt but my sense is next winter we pay the piper in a big way with possibly 50% or more below normal snowfall. As far as warm subsurface now......probably transient. Look carefully in about 5 months...I think the Nina dye will be cast by then. Disturbing, you've lost faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Major freezing fog 21.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 28/28 Any snow on sat will probably happen, since I'll be away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 16/13, Nice having some fresh snow on the snow pack. My early AM ski tour was nice and quiet. Looks like a bit more snow/ice here tonight and tomorrow. Euro is interesting. Funny how when peple don't have snow on the ground or haven't seen snow fall in a few weeks they get dismissive of the possibility for snow. Oh, save the climo comments.lol Hey Pete! 52 wed 58 thur 63 fri 57 sat 70's next week? Thats my forecast, I am sure yours is much different, enjoy the spring skiing.........dismissive here on the coastal plain, nah, just realistic :sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 22/21 frosty morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 A few of the 00z GEFS members look like the 00z EC. 00z EC ens are close to the op too. You guys can have it if you want. LOL, you are still bitter about yesterday. I was just kidding around, and I was also trying to fire up Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 34 sun is now breaking out, should be another classic early spring day, have a great day everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 This stretch still has a ways to go to equal the late 1950s and 1960s on a larger scale for northeast snow. I always say its very dangerous to jump to conclusions based on a few years. Climo is a b**ch and will come back and get you at some point. Our great run actually goes back to 1992-1993. We'll be getting some crappier winters at some point soon. I mean for Boston, the '09-'10 screw job was the exception rather than the rule the past 4 years as '07-'08 and '08-'09 were comfortably above avg and then this huge winter near 80". This post is probably more for zucker than for you. His area got fortunate to get both last year and this year, but they got the grade A shaft in '07-'08. There's no guarantee next year is any good either even if it neutral. A nice torch snowless winter for south of SNE in a neutral/-NAO year coming off a Nina was '96-'97. You can always come up with reasons to support your argument for either a good winter or bad winter next year if its a weak ENSO, but the truth is we just don't know. December 2001 is a good example too of a raging -NAO but the PAC being so bad, that it didn't help us. So even if we do get a -NAO, we still want to avoid a horrendous PAC...which while unlikely...is still a possibility. Yeah the sample size is small....heck we still need probably another 5-10 years to be sure we are entering another -NAO regime, but it seems like we are. We don't have any concrete evidence comparing this current period of snow events to the 50s and 60s, but it seems like we are entering a similar period...again, if you accept the -NAO decadal cycle, which still isn't a lock just yet. It's just there are so many other things to consider...solar, QBO oscillation and how it fell into the La Nina and El Nino regimes....just many other variables that coincidentally may have fell into the perfect combo to deliver heavier snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Wonder how those 68F temps will do on Friday. GFS and Euro couldn't be more different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Wonder how those 68F temps will do on Friday. GFS and Euro couldn't be more different. Tell me about it .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 The ride into work this morning was cool. Left the house in heavy fog at 21F... had to drive sorta slow. Entering Gardner the fog lofted and you could easily see the decent riming that was on all surfaces (I think rime was the right term for it). Fog continued as I was on Tippy's favorite highway (Rte 2) and the rime lessened as I decended in elevation. We also had a cool cloud come over Wachusett last night just at the top. At first we thought maybe they had fired up the snow guns for a bit, but there was no sound. 50 foot vis at the top, but just for a little ways. Had been clear with great vis before and after that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 The low was 14F here earlier. Up to 25 now...en route to low/mid 40's. The ride into work this morning was cool. Left the house in heavy fog at 21F... had to drive sorta slow. Entering Gardner the fog lofted and you could easily see the decent riming that was on all surfaces (I think rime was the right term for it). Fog continued as I was on Tippy's favorite highway (Rte 2) and the rime lessened as I decended in elevation. We also had a cool cloud come over Wachusett last night just at the top. At first we thought maybe they had fired up the snow guns for a bit, but there was no sound. 50 foot vis at the top, but just for a little ways. Had been clear with great vis before and after that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Lol at the Euro snowstorm on Saturday. What a torch it has for next week. 2 days at least of 70's It snowed yesterday I think we are on a streak. A Friday night snow event would fit this pattern perfectly followed by the torcharoosky next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Volatility That's what makes March fun. At this point I am past the build or hold the snow pack phase. I just enjoy squeezing out every last chance at frozen precipitation. It snowed yesterday I think we are on a streak. A Friday night snow event would fit this pattern perfectly followed by the torcharoosky next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 23 for a low, coldest night in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 23 for a low, coldest night in a while. It got to 27 here it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Scooter just gave me another one of his patented suicidal drive bys on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Scooter just gave me another one of his patented suicidal drive bys on FB. At least it's sunny out. Maybe the euro has a clue on Saturday, but I hate squashed waves to the south. That's probably a Kevin to Will jackpot and not necessarily because of elevation either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 At least it's sunny out. Maybe the euro has a clue on Saturday, but I hate squashed waves to the south. That's probably a Kevin to Will jackpot and not necessarily because of elevation either. Haven't looked and if it's a 1-3" event, which accumulates on nothing but chest hair, then I don't care to either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Haven't looked and if it's a 1-3" event, which accumulates on nothing but chest hair, then I don't care to either. Eh, who knows. It's not exactly a stable looking prog on the euro, so I don't quite believe it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Volatility That's what makes March fun. At this point I am past the build or hold the snow pack phase. I just enjoy squeezing out every last chance at frozen precipitation. Yep. I actually think it's been a patented March month here. All sorts of variations. We will see what happens with the 12z run. I have no real interest either way, just wouldn't be surprised if it snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 The 12Z NAM just put a stake in the warm day on Friday for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 The 12Z NAM just put a stake in the warm day on Friday for most of us. Yep..what was the deal with the Euro? Is it the 2nd wave approaching at 84 that brought the snow or the first one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 The 12Z NAM just put a stake in the warm day on Friday for most of us. A lot of uncertainty on that day... The 00z GFS and 12z NAM are very much in disagreement on the location and intensity on that wave.... GFS is moderately intense and up in Ontario, whereas the NAM is much weaker and S of CLE... As far as intensity goes, it is hard to determine what is driving that disagreement for the time being, but the placement is a better fit with the NAM because of the confluence evolving farther up in Canada. That should impose llv blocking. The differences sensibly are night and day, with the GFS actually offering a 4-6 hour dirty warm sector all the way to southern NH, which would imply 50s to near 60 for much of the region... Contrasting, the NAM would have ENE winds cutting SW with a polar boundary all the way to the South Coast and temps 40 or less and falling! Moreover, the extrapolation would have snow and sleet coming into the area toward evening. The 00z ECM, while not a stellar companion to the NAM was far in a way a better friend than the GFS, so that also gives a nod to the NAM over the GFS. Lastly, the GFS goes against climo to some degree - no pun intended. OT: Did anyone see the 06z GFS depiction of a -4SD bowling ball going under Long Island at the tail end of the deterministic run?? Too bad that is lala range. Lastly, the nearer term system is interesting for western zones in my opinion. This may also include NW CT. There is a clear thickness "kink" pointing SE during max QPF, indicating dynamics getting involved, and the sounding out near ALB looks like an isothermal blue snow dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 This post is probably more for zucker than for you. His area got fortunate to get both last year and this year, but they got the grade A shaft in '07-'08. There's no guarantee next year is any good either even if it neutral. A nice torch snowless winter for south of SNE in a neutral/-NAO year coming off a Nina was '96-'97. You can always come up with reasons to support your argument for either a good winter or bad winter next year if its a weak ENSO, but the truth is we just don't know. December 2001 is a good example too of a raging -NAO but the PAC being so bad, that it didn't help us. So even if we do get a -NAO, we still want to avoid a horrendous PAC...which while unlikely...is still a possibility. Yes, 09-10/10-11 is the best two winters in a row I've ever witnessed here....68" last year, 66" this year, 5 events over a foot in two winters. We suffered with only 20" or so in 07-08 but 08-09 wasn't bad with 45"... 96-97 had a big -NAO? I thought all of those winters averaged a positive NAO except 95-96. We can see a variety of Pacific patterns in a weak Niña/neutral winter; if we were to go to weak El Niño, then chances are high we'd see a favorable +PNA/-EPO for most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 A lot of uncertainty on that day... The 00z GFS and 12z NAM are very much in disagreement on the location and intensity on that wave.... GFS is moderately intense and up in Ontario, whereas the NAM is much weaker and S of CLE... As far as intensity goes, it is hard to determine what is driving that disagreement for the time being, but the placement is a better fit with the NAM because of the confluence evolving farther up in Canada. That should impose llv blocking. The differences sensibly are night and day, with the GFS actually offering a 4-6 hour dirty warm sector all the way to southern NH, which would imply 50s to near 60 for much of the region... Contrasting, the NAM would have ENE winds cutting SW with a polar boundary all the way to the South Coast and temps 40 or less and falling! Moreover, the extrapolation would have snow and sleet coming into the area toward evening. The 00z ECM, while not a stellar companion to the NAM was far in a way a better friend than the GFS, so that also gives a nod to the NAM over the GFS. Lastly, the GFS goes against climo to some degree - no pun intended. OT: Did anyone see the 06z GFS depiction of a -4SD bowling ball going under Long Island at the tail end of the deterministic run?? Too bad that is lala range. Lastly, the nearer term system is interesting for western zones in my opinion. This may also include NW CT. There is a clear thickness "kink" pointing SE during max QPF, indicating dynamics getting involved, and the sounding out near ALB looks like an isothermal blue snow dump. GFS came way south...snow for ski areas of northern NH and ME..maybe it'll keep moving south. Euro FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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