Give up on an encore

[nzucker]

Yeah the 2nd half of January saw a big WC ridge teleconnect with the ridging in AK/Bering Straight. There was a time it was all one big ridge that month. That's when we saw the brutally cold arctic outbreak that dumped BOS below 0F for the first time since 2005 and it helped produce the Jan 26-27 storm and even the little fluff bomb before that on 1/21.

We actually had a western trough for the 1/12 event...that storm would have been a torching cutter if it weren't for the NAO block...it looked a lot like Mar 3, 1960. Just not quite as digging as far south as that one did.

Having the PNA ridge connect with a -EPO block usually produces our coldest weather. This was what happened in January 2009, and it actually became so extreme that a bubble of +10C 850s showed up over Fairbanks, AK while we sat under -30C 850s in Vermont

[CoastalWx]

-PNA patterns are most successful with -NAO...that's why we said we like -NAO/-PNA here. Jan 12th HECS was that type of setup.

It also depends on the magnitude of the -PNA....if its very negative, then it obviously gets worse.

Yeah exactly...even combined with a +NAO like in Dec 2007, although that can be risky. They come in all shapes and sizes....I just felt this may have been ugly without the blocking.

[nzucker]

Yeah exactly...even combined with a +NAO like in Dec 2007, although that can be risky. They come in all shapes and sizes....I just felt this may have been ugly without the blocking.

07-08 had a "good" +NAO for New England with the vortex being displaced towards Hudson Bay, forcing the storm track south.

The +NAO pattern gets uglier like this month, where the vortex is centered farther north towards Greenland.

[HoarfrostHubb]

A great night skiing at Wachusett. Looked like they got a half inch of new snow on the trees there. Very nice

24.9F

[CoastalWx]

07-08 had a "good" +NAO for New England with the vortex being displaced towards Hudson Bay, forcing the storm track south.

The +NAO pattern gets uglier like this month, where the vortex is centered farther north towards Greenland.

Yeah it worked well in tandem with ridging that was in a good spot to pipe the cold into New England. That's why I like to look at the placement of these anomalies, because not every (+) or (-) anomaly behaves the same.

Hopefully you get your weak ENSO with -QBO, next year..lol.

[CoastalWx]

Well anyways, fingers crossed for a parting gift. If that doesn't happen, hopefully at least a decent winter next year.

I'm just having trouble with the possibility of another March fail..lol. I figured we'd get a little payback from the last string of crappy March months, but oh well. Weather will continue to do what it wants to do.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Let's just hope the southern stream is a bit more active, because 76-77 was only average snowy outside of the Lakes.

It was amazing in e ne, as well.....Miller B-East season.

[weathafella]

Well anyways, fingers crossed for a parting gift. If that doesn't happen, hopefully at least a decent winter next year.

I'm just having trouble with the possibility of another March fail..lol. I figured we'd get a little payback from the last string of crappy March months, but oh well. Weather will continue to do what it wants to do.

Parting gift: Highly unlikely for the CP

Next year: first call from way out:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Didn't we get like 15" of rain in March with epic flooding? Not my idea of a nice spring.

Yea, but right after that came to end, it was gorgeous.

I didn't food and not everyone did.

[CoastalWx]

Parting gift: Highly unlikely for the CP

Next year: first call from way out:

True, I'm not optimistic..but who knows.

What makes you think next winter is horrible? We may have some good features on our side.

[nzucker]

True, I'm not optimistic..but who knows.

What makes you think next winter is horrible? We may have some good features on our side.

I just can't imagine another huge winter next season; my house 7 miles north of NYC had 45" in 08-09, 68" in 09-10, and 66" in 10-11...these totals are way above the long-term average of 36" at the town co-op. I figure I probably average around 38" since I'm at 350' outside the urbanized area of downtown, but we've averaged 60" since Winter 08-09 began. That type of snow can't continue forever. Or maybe it can...we've had above average snowfall 7 out of the last 9 years, and we had three consecutive winters of over 50" from 02-03 through 04-05. I was lucky to be far enough south to get into the Mid-Atlantic winter of 09-10 and then far enough north for the New England winter of 10-11, sort of the happy medium. But truth be told is that we're in a ridiculous stretch since 02-03 and the hammer must come down sometime considering our mediocre climo for snow. It just seems the big Nor'easters are becoming more common, I have no explanation why but in the last 15 years we've seen many of history's biggest snowstorms with January 1996, April 1997, December 2000, February 2003, January 2005, February 2006, December 2009, February 2010 (2x), December 2010, January 2011 (2x). Any explanations for this absurd stretch of excellent Nor'easters? Have any meteorologists been discussing the seeming increase in major snowfalls along I-95?

I am also pretty optimistic about next winter: everything seems to be pointing towards a weak ENSO state from weak Niña to weak Niño; these states have historically featured above average snowfall here in NYC metro as well as for SNE. If we get a weak Niño, we're pretty much a lock for a decent winter, thinking of 04-05, 77-78, 76-77, 69-70, 68-69, and 63-64. None of these winters sucked and most were way colder than normal. We're also in the -PDO phase that favors colder temperatures over North America, the -NAO decadal phase, and global temperatures are very low with the AMSU Channel 5 satellite readings near record lows for March. We're rapidly moving towards a -QBO which favors a stratospheric warming in low solar conditions, which we're probably going to have considering the sun has been generally quiet outside of a few recent flares. I don't see any negatives for next winter. Why are you pessimistic, Jerry?

[CTWeatherFreak]

I just can't imagine another huge winter next season; my house 7 miles north of NYC had 45" in 08-09, 68" in 09-10, and 66" in 10-11...these totals are way above the long-term average of 36" at the town co-op. I figure I probably average around 38" since I'm at 350' outside the urbanized area of downtown, but we've averaged 60" since Winter 08-09 began. That type of snow can't continue forever. Or maybe it can...we've had above average snowfall 7 out of the last 9 years, and we had three consecutive winters of over 50" from 02-03 through 04-05. I was lucky to be far enough south to get into the Mid-Atlantic winter of 09-10 and then far enough north for the New England winter of 10-11, sort of the happy medium. But truth be told is that we're in a ridiculous stretch since 02-03 and the hammer must come down sometime considering our mediocre climo for snow. It just seems the big Nor'easters are becoming more common, I have no explanation why but in the last 15 years we've seen many of history's biggest snowstorms with January 1996, April 1997, December 2000, February 2003, January 2005, February 2006, December 2009, February 2010 (2x), December 2010, January 2011 (2x). Any explanations for this absurd stretch of excellent Nor'easters? Have any meteorologists been discussing the seeming increase in major snowfalls along I-95?

I am also pretty optimistic about next winter: everything seems to be pointing towards a weak ENSO state from weak Niña to weak Niño; these states have historically featured above average snowfall here in NYC metro as well as for SNE. If we get a weak Niño, we're pretty much a lock for a decent winter, thinking of 04-05, 77-78, 76-77, 69-70, 68-69, and 63-64. None of these winters sucked and most were way colder than normal. We're also in the -PDO phase that favors colder temperatures over North America, the -NAO decadal phase, and global temperatures are very low with the AMSU Channel 5 satellite readings near record lows for March. We're rapidly moving towards a -QBO which favors a stratospheric warming in low solar conditions, which we're probably going to have considering the sun has been generally quiet outside of a few recent flares. I don't see any negatives for next winter. Why are you pessimistic, Jerry?

Nice post, coming from a former White Plainser

[weathafella]

True, I'm not optimistic..but who knows.

What makes you think next winter is horrible? We may have some good features on our side.

I think that we have a strong 2nd year of a Nina and this time an uncooperative NAO. Let's face it, when NAO went unfavorable, winter flipped. Atlantic ruled this year in our area.....NAO determined our fate.

[nzucker]

I think that we have a strong 2nd year of a Nina and this time an uncooperative NAO. Let's face it, when NAO went unfavorable, winter flipped. Atlantic ruled this year in our area.....NAO determined our fate.

But what is the Niña is weak, Jerry? Wouldn't that portend a negative NAO and more cooperative Pacific as we saw in January 2009 with the cold outbreak?

Or are you expecting a moderate/strong Niña? I don't think that seems likely given the vast amount of warmth in the subsurface of the ENSO regions. The 0-300m Ocean Heat Content is now above average due to how much the warmth has spread eastwards from Indonesia. I'm starting to believe a weak Niño is more probable than a moderate/strong La Niña, honestly, despite what historical climatology tells us about multi-year ENSO events and the staying power of a strong Niña that follows a strong Niño. What say you about the developing warmth in the subsurface, Jerry?

[CoastalWx]

I just can't imagine another huge winter next season; my house 7 miles north of NYC had 45" in 08-09, 68" in 09-10, and 66" in 10-11...these totals are way above the long-term average of 36" at the town co-op. I figure I probably average around 38" since I'm at 350' outside the urbanized area of downtown, but we've averaged 60" since Winter 08-09 began. That type of snow can't continue forever. Or maybe it can...we've had above average snowfall 7 out of the last 9 years, and we had three consecutive winters of over 50" from 02-03 through 04-05. I was lucky to be far enough south to get into the Mid-Atlantic winter of 09-10 and then far enough north for the New England winter of 10-11, sort of the happy medium. But truth be told is that we're in a ridiculous stretch since 02-03 and the hammer must come down sometime considering our mediocre climo for snow. It just seems the big Nor'easters are becoming more common, I have no explanation why but in the last 15 years we've seen many of history's biggest snowstorms with January 1996, April 1997, December 2000, February 2003, January 2005, February 2006, December 2009, February 2010 (2x), December 2010, January 2011 (2x). Any explanations for this absurd stretch of excellent Nor'easters? Have any meteorologists been discussing the seeming increase in major snowfalls along I-95?

I am also pretty optimistic about next winter: everything seems to be pointing towards a weak ENSO state from weak Niña to weak Niño; these states have historically featured above average snowfall here in NYC metro as well as for SNE. If we get a weak Niño, we're pretty much a lock for a decent winter, thinking of 04-05, 77-78, 76-77, 69-70, 68-69, and 63-64. None of these winters sucked and most were way colder than normal. We're also in the -PDO phase that favors colder temperatures over North America, the -NAO decadal phase, and global temperatures are very low with the AMSU Channel 5 satellite readings near record lows for March. We're rapidly moving towards a -QBO which favors a stratospheric warming in low solar conditions, which we're probably going to have considering the sun has been generally quiet outside of a few recent flares. I don't see any negatives for next winter. Why are you pessimistic, Jerry?

Well, I'm not even going to go the AGW route...lol.

I suppose there are some characteristics of the 50's and 60's and 2000s. We have been in a NAO decline since the mid to late 90s, along with the fall of the PDO. We obviously have a limited sample size, but that could be one reason. The 50s and 60s were the last -NAO/-PDO and era of big storms. I've also wondered if measurement techniques have anything to do with it. Nobody really does the old stick the ruler and measure anymore. Most official sites measure every 6hrs and I don't think this was always the case..especially up to and including the 70s.

Who knows though...it just could be a stretch that perhaps people in the 1700s endured and we just don't have the data, hence the sample size problem.

[CoastalWx]

But what is the Niña is weak, Jerry? Wouldn't that portend a negative NAO and more cooperative Pacific as we saw in January 2009 with the cold outbreak?

Or are you expecting a moderate/strong Niña? I don't think that seems likely given the vast amount of warmth in the subsurface of the ENSO regions. The 0-300m Ocean Heat Content is now above average due to how much the warmth has spread eastwards from Indonesia. I'm starting to believe a weak Niño is more probable than a moderate/strong La Niña, honestly, despite what historical climatology tells us about multi-year ENSO events and the staying power of a strong Niña that follows a strong Niño. What say you about the developing warmth in the subsurface, Jerry?

I've also wondered what, if any, effect did the earthquake have. It might be a stretch...but who knows?

[A-L-E-X]

But what is the Niña is weak, Jerry? Wouldn't that portend a negative NAO and more cooperative Pacific as we saw in January 2009 with the cold outbreak?

Or are you expecting a moderate/strong Niña? I don't think that seems likely given the vast amount of warmth in the subsurface of the ENSO regions. The 0-300m Ocean Heat Content is now above average due to how much the warmth has spread eastwards from Indonesia. I'm starting to believe a weak Niño is more probable than a moderate/strong La Niña, honestly, despite what historical climatology tells us about multi-year ENSO events and the staying power of a strong Niña that follows a strong Niño. What say you about the developing warmth in the subsurface, Jerry?

You just reminded me of Ji's post about whether the tsunami could have affected ENSO if it brings up water from the subsurface lol.

[A-L-E-X]

I've also wondered what, if any, effect did the earthquake have. It might be a stretch...but who knows?

Stop stealing my posts Lol, but seriously, I think it was just a short term effect, but who knows.

[Logan11]

I'm just hoping for a summer like 1816.

I've also wondered what, if any, effect did the earthquake have. It might be a stretch...but who knows?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

You just reminded me of Ji's post about whether the tsunami could have affected ENSO if it brings up water from the subsurface lol.

Any most recent shots of the PAC SST?

[nzucker]

I suppose there are some characteristics of the 50's and 60's and 2000s. We have been in a NAO decline since the mid to late 90s, along with the fall of the PDO. We obviously have a limited sample size, but that could be one reason. The 50s and 60s were the last -NAO/-PDO and era of big storms. I've also wondered if measurement techniques have anything to do with it. Nobody really does the old stick the ruler and measure anymore. Most official sites measure every 6hrs and I don't think this was always the case..especially up to and including the 70s.

Who knows though...it just could be a stretch that perhaps people in the 1700s endured and we just don't have the data, hence the sample size problem.

The late 50s/early 60s had a similar stretch here, and presumably at your location...here's a list of big storms for Dobbs Ferry (co-op data) starting with March 1956:

3/17-20/1956: 27.9"

12/5/1957: 17.2"

2/16/1958: 16.9"

3/15/58: 10.1"

3/21/1958: 17.5"

3/10-12/1959: 11.4"

12/21/1959: 8.5"

3/3/1960: 27.4"

12/12/60: 19.1"

1/15/1961: 7.9"

1/20/1961: 18.3"

2/4/1961: 22.4"

This is just an absurd stretch, I always get the jitters when I look at this list since I can't believe a location 7 miles from the Bronx border could experience such intense winters. 60-61 particularly stands out with the three storms over 18". Do you know any major cities in SNE that have seen a winter with 3 18"+ events? We were talking about this last night, and I can't remember any winters here that even had two...77-78 just missed with like 15" in each storm, January and February. Last winter almost got two with the 12.5" on 2/10 and 26" on 2/26, but solidly short. To have three 18"+ blizzards in one winter is just spectacular, a feat that may never be repeated, especially down here. 60-61 is particularly impressive because January had an 8" event just four days before the JFK Inauguration Blizzard, in which Central Park got jipped with less than 10" while the northern suburbs cashed in with a true HECS, 18.3" here. DC only had 6" but it snarled traffic horribly during the inauguration event. Snowpack reached 32" in downtown Dobbs Ferry after the 2/4 event as temperatures were brutally cold in late January with ten nights in a row hitting single digits....I wouldn't be surprised if some of the shaded dales near 400' elevation behind my house had 40" on the ground!

There were supposedly some very severe winters before records began such as 1816-1817 and a couple years in the late 1700s after the mild spell ended. NYC had snowcover from December-March in many of these winters so there must have been a plethora of Nor'easters to keep the ground white. I just don't think we know what's possible when we're in an extreme solar minimum that simultaneously lowers global temperatures and produces a powerful -NAO/-AO blocking regime. The last time we had a solar minimum like this was the Dalton in the 1810s.

Any most recent shots of the PAC SST?

Here's the 3/14 global SST anomaly map from NOAA:

[ORH_wxman]

Well, I'm not even going to go the AGW route...lol.

I suppose there are some characteristics of the 50's and 60's and 2000s. We have been in a NAO decline since the mid to late 90s, along with the fall of the PDO. We obviously have a limited sample size, but that could be one reason. The 50s and 60s were the last -NAO/-PDO and era of big storms. I've also wondered if measurement techniques have anything to do with it. Nobody really does the old stick the ruler and measure anymore. Most official sites measure every 6hrs and I don't think this was always the case..especially up to and including the 70s.

Who knows though...it just could be a stretch that perhaps people in the 1700s endured and we just don't have the data, hence the sample size problem.

This stretch still has a ways to go to equal the late 1950s and 1960s on a larger scale for northeast snow. I always say its very dangerous to jump to conclusions based on a few years. Climo is a b**ch and will come back and get you at some point. Our great run actually goes back to 1992-1993. We'll be getting some crappier winters at some point soon. I mean for Boston, the '09-'10 screw job was the exception rather than the rule the past 4 years as '07-'08 and '08-'09 were comfortably above avg and then this huge winter near 80".

This post is probably more for zucker than for you. His area got fortunate to get both last year and this year, but they got the grade A shaft in '07-'08. There's no guarantee next year is any good either even if it neutral. A nice torch snowless winter for south of SNE in a neutral/-NAO year coming off a Nina was '96-'97. You can always come up with reasons to support your argument for either a good winter or bad winter next year if its a weak ENSO, but the truth is we just don't know. December 2001 is a good example too of a raging -NAO but the PAC being so bad, that it didn't help us. So even if we do get a -NAO, we still want to avoid a horrendous PAC...which while unlikely...is still a possibility.

[ORH_wxman]

BTW, Euro shows dendrite's snowstorm from the 12z run over most of SNE for the 00z run....for this Friday night into Sat morning, lol.

I'll believe it when I see it. All other guidance continues to be north. Canadian is somewhat similar but a bit warmer, though does end as probably an inch or two of snow.

[ineedsnow]

would be nice and euro is inside its kill zone lol

BTW, Euro shows dendrite's snowstorm from the 12z run over most of SNE for the 00z run....for this Friday night into Sat morning, lol.

I'll believe it when I see it. All other guidance continues to be north. Canadian is somewhat similar but a bit warmer, though does end as probably an inch or two of snow.

[ineedsnow]

euro looks like an all out torch after the late week threat though

[ORH_wxman]

would be nice and euro is inside its kill zone lol

Its about 96-108 houts out so its still outside the Euro kill zone, but the Euro definitely performs better than other guidance in this time range. On the flip side, the Euro has had a rough winter overall for its standards and given that its a cold outlier right now, I would bet against it right now.

There's about 3 or 4 GFS ensemble members that look quite close to the Euro, so its not completely outlandish...but you'd like to see a lot more at this point. Especially since the pattern is not favorable.

[Logan11]

Looking at the 6Z NAM, someones 60F forecast may bust very badly Friday with a front sagging down over the region and arctic air in Quebec..... Some of the ALB mets were going for 60 on Friday.

Its about 96-108 houts out so its still outside the Euro kill zone, but the Euro definitely performs better than other guidance in this time range. On the flip side, the Euro has had a rough winter overall for its standards and given that its a cold outlier right now, I would bet against it right now.

There's about 3 or 4 GFS ensemble members that look quite close to the Euro, so its not completely outlandish...but you'd like to see a lot more at this point. Especially since the pattern is not favorable.

[Logan11]

Looking at the 6Z NAM, someones 60F forecast may bust very badly Friday with a front sagging down over the region and arctic air in Quebec..... Some of the ALB mets were going for 60 on Friday.

Its about 96-108 houts out so its still outside the Euro kill zone, but the Euro definitely performs better than other guidance in this time range. On the flip side, the Euro has had a rough winter overall for its standards and given that its a cold outlier right now, I would bet against it right now.

There's about 3 or 4 GFS ensemble members that look quite close to the Euro, so its not completely outlandish...but you'd like to see a lot more at this point. Especially since the pattern is not favorable.

[Logan11]

The 6Z NAM could be a quick hitting wet snow bomb for us here... isothermal around 0C surface to 800 mb at 15Z tomorrow.

[dendrite]

BTW, Euro shows dendrite's snowstorm from the 12z run over most of SNE for the 00z run....for this Friday night into Sat morning, lol.

I'll believe it when I see it. All other guidance continues to be north. Canadian is somewhat similar but a bit warmer, though does end as probably an inch or two of snow.

A few of the 00z GEFS members look like the 00z EC. 00z EC ens are close to the op too. You guys can have it if you want.