Give up on an encore

[CoastalWx]

GFS rip and read it looks like to me. I think Thursday is the warmer day

It's almost time for the annual "to backdoor or not to backdoor" contest. I'm interested to see how Friday ends up. A little worried that front ruins the party, but it's only Monday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Time to retreat to the sports side....here come high temp debates.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah I've seen that, but I think some of them weren't as robust with the blocking in March. Perhaps the strength of this Nina has something to do with this.

This year just gave a big FU to analogs. If anything, it probably humbled those that do long range forecasting.

There might be another thing at play here-- the change in the pattern was delayed and now it's being delayed again. Heh, that would mean a cool rainy spring is up ahead.

[nzucker]

Yeah I went back and looked... the 50s and 60s were on my mind. The MJO was a huge help in January for us, this year. Another piece of the long range puzzle that's always tough to figure out, and proof that we can have these waves, even in strong Ninas.

Yeah, as ORH pointed out to argue against my forecast for a milder January this winter based on the Pacific, the strong Niña of 75-76 had a huge MJO wave that ripped the cold into the Northeast after a chilly December. Feb/March was a mega-torch, even more extreme than this year:

Jan 1976:

February and March:

OUCH!

The next winter was one of the coldest on record, and had a weak ENSO state as many are expecting for Winter 11-12.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah I realized that after I wrote it...most of the East was warm but not New England. That can often happen in a La Niña where you have cold air over Canada and moderate troughing out west...events like to run up into the OH Valley and keep New England on the cold/snowy side while everyone else sees a warm-up. This happened in 07-08 where the cold anomalies were mostly centered over the Mountain West/Northern Plains but NNE stayed around average for the winter despite NYC being torched by lows tracking up their fanny. I remember talking to someone at Middlebury that year when I was down in Poughkeepsie for the semester; I mentioned that it had been such a warm winter and he was incredulous since Middlebury had seen average temperatures with lots of snowfall while the Hudson Valley was mild with bare ground.

I did OK this February with 8" from the 2/21 overrunning, but the huge torch ruined the snowpack and made the month feel less than wintry. The 2/2-3 storm was also supposed to involve more snow and ended up being almost all ice for the NYC northern suburbs. The gradient has definitely shifted north this March, however, as I'd venture that many places in Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes are below average, and temperatures have been brutally cold in Greenland/Baffin. We've lost all semblance of blocking and so basically your latitude determines how much cold you receive right now, and for NYC south that's been very little.

88-89 was a decent example....December was slightly below average in the East, but then February was normal to above normal for most of the East Coast.

60-61 was a weak Niña/negative neutral year with an historic run from December 10-February 4...the rest of the winter was mild.

54-55, a moderate Niña, had a cold SE during December; February was mild in the East with cold over the Plains/West.

55-56, a strong Niña with good blocking, had an extremely cold December in the Northeast. January and February were quite mild and snowless until the blocking returned for a very severe March.

Of course you could also say that cold without big dynamic coastal storms is wasted.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah I've seen that, but I think some of them weren't as robust with the blocking in March. Perhaps the strength of this Nina has something to do with this.

This year just gave a big FU to analogs. If anything, it probably humbled those that do long range forecasting.

The argument for neutral after la nina winters being fruitless is bolstered by 89-90 and 01-02.

[bobbutts]

I wouldn't go that far, but I can understand how it can be frustrating for some in SNE during those latitudinal events like 2/25 where I get a nice pasting and you guys get a cold rain. Those things even out over time though while I'm under virga altostratus with 2m dewpoint depressions of 15C and SNE is racking up 12-20". Obviously it's more fun when we're all involved to some degree, but those events are few and far between. I try to take my grazes and misses like a man and enjoy/get involved with the events that strike south of me, but after a few misses in a row I can only take so much too.

There's only a few of us up here in the Lakes Region posting frequently and I'm probably the only one that really analyzes the model runs. I haven't considered these threads as solely SNE at all this winter so I haven't been afraid to be involved. I wanted the storm threads this winter to be for all of New England while the obs/general threads could be separated between NNE and SNE. So if anyone finds me talking about winter threats for mby in these threads it's with no malicious intent.

Yeah I'm not really lakes region, but you're still the closest knowledgeable and frequent poster to me.. I followed and appreciated your posts all winter

Makes me think of when I'd first started reading eastern alot in 07 when it was all one big thread.. Getting slammed with snow here while the thread is in disaster meltdown mode from rain down the coast.. Even in just NE there's plenty of variation to continue that dynamic.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah, as ORH pointed out to argue against my forecast for a milder January this winter based on the Pacific, the strong Niña of 75-76 had a huge MJO wave that ripped the cold into the Northeast after a chilly December. Feb/March was a mega-torch, even more extreme than this year:

Jan 1976:

February and March:

OUCH!

The next winter was one of the coldest on record, and had a weak ENSO state as many are expecting for Winter 11-12.

Let's just hope the southern stream is a bit more active, because 76-77 was only average snowy outside of the Lakes.

[Chris L]

Let's just hope the southern stream is a bit more active, because 76-77 was only average snowy outside of the Lakes.

Just get the polar get going to dig far south...

But Weak nino would be nice like 1977-1978.

[ORH_wxman]

Let's just hope the southern stream is a bit more active, because 76-77 was only average snowy outside of the Lakes.

Ray will kill you for this statement, lol.

[nzucker]

Let's just hope the southern stream is a bit more active, because 76-77 was only average snowy outside of the Lakes.

And don't forget Eastern New England which had a snowy winter in 76-77. Will, do you know how Boston ended up with so much more snow that year than NYC?

The ultimate state for us is a high-end weak Niño like 77-78, which guarantees a cold pattern but with more of a sub-tropical jet. Also, west-based Niños tend to be snowier than their east-based counterparts; 76-77 was east-based whereas 77-78 was west-based.

[CoastalWx]

The argument for neutral after la nina winters being fruitless is bolstered by 89-90 and 01-02.

Well good thing this one was fruitful. I think many people will be glued to the NAO in the coming months. If that starts to head negative again and remains consistent, then I suspect some people will become giddy again by late summer.

[ORH_wxman]

The argument for neutral after la nina winters being fruitless is bolstered by 89-90 and 01-02.

And then you have years like '08-'09.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, as ORH pointed out to argue against my forecast for a milder January this winter based on the Pacific, the strong Niña of 75-76 had a huge MJO wave that ripped the cold into the Northeast after a chilly December. Feb/March was a mega-torch, even more extreme than this year:

Jan 1976:

February and March:

OUCH!

The next winter was one of the coldest on record, and had a weak ENSO state as many are expecting for Winter 11-12.

MJO is always the one thing that can throw off forecasts. That and SSW. I don't think we can predict a SSW, other than saying that they are favored at certain times, using analogs. I'm not a huge analog person, but they have some merit. I just would never use them fully. We also need to consider decadal cycles, and how they may or may not affect analog composites. The MJO data goes back to 1974, but what did those composites look like during the last -NAO decadal cycle??

[CoastalWx]

And then you have years like '08-'09.

Yeah I was just thinking that..lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

PNA is affected by the height field S of the Aleutions as well as the interior of W Canada (we tend to focus on the latter)...the trough is actually a broad trough that covers the WC and heights in Canada or NW Canada are actually near neutral with another trough hitting Aleutions...giving lower heights near and SW of the Aleutions that would cause the PNA index number to rise. So you might see the number not be representative of its downstream effect on the east coast. The huge broad WC trough is seemingly trumping anything else. There is a bit of a split flow pseudo block near Baffin Island back to Hudson Bay in the D5 time frame, so I suppose there is room for something if we get really lucky, but that WC trough going to be a tough obstacle to overcome.

I understand. It's not my opinion. I'm just telling folks what it is mathematically being computed via CPC and CDC at this time. Take it or leave it folks -

Although, in our defense, it doesn't appear the positive character of the field is expressing in the perennial N/A pattern, which would otherwise see a more discerned ridge over the Rockies. There was for a few runs, but seemingly lost as of late. This sucks!! And, we have said often enough in the past that with a PNA being such a huge domain, it is possible for 2/3rds of the sucker to be positive, and 1/3 to be negative (up our asses) and we get summarily screwed. So there's that too -

[ORH_wxman]

MJO is always the one thing that can throw off forecasts. That and SSW. I don't think we can predict a SSW, other than saying that they are favored at certain times, using analogs. I'm not a huge analog person, but they have some merit. I just would never use them fully. We also need to consider decadal cycles, and how they may or may not affect analog composites. The MJO data goes back to 1974, but what did those composites look like during the last -NAO decadal cycle??

Yeah there's so many different variables that we still don't know much about...or don't have the ability to predict. MJO "phase X" might mean one thing when we are in a predominately -NAO state versus a +NAO state. Also to what degree are they connected? They probably aren't 100% mutually exclusive variables.

We saw this year that all strong Ninas are not the same...just because the late 1990s Ninas torched to hell after a strong Nina, didn't mean that this year was going to. It was all about the N PAC not having a brutal vortex over AK/Bering straight which would cut off the cold air supply to Canada. Instead the Aleution high anomaly (which was expected) extended well northward into Kamchatka and Bering straight and that allow plenty of cold air to be spilled into NW Canada and then sent down the pipeline SE via the NAO block

The NAO block of course is what cause the M.A. and SE to be cold this winter...the PAC was the most important thing for Canada and probably N Tier.

[Typhoon Tip]

And then you have years like '08-'09.

Wasn't 2005 a great late March and April? I seem to recall one of those years peering across the street at neighbors lamp light and shoots coming down at that tail end of a pretty decent snow storm around the 4th of April or so...

[ORH_wxman]

Wasn't 2005 a great late March and April? I seem to recall one of those years peering across the street at neighbors lamp light and shoots coming down at that tail end of a pretty decent snow storm around the 4th of April or so...

April 4-5, 2006 it was I believe.

[nzucker]

Well good thing this one was fruitful. I think many people will be glued to the NAO in the coming months. If that starts to head negative again and remains consistent, then I suspect some people will become giddy again by late summer.

I'm already getting giddy with the signs of warmth spreading across the subsurface of the equatorial Pacific.

Can you say weak Niño on a cold globe?

And then you have years like '08-'09.

08-09 was a good winter here in the northern suburbs of NYC with 45" of snow; it doesn't get a lot of credit but the January arctic outbreak broke records in New England and December 19-21 was a great period for a lot of us. Vermont was awesome in mid December and again in January after the huge 1/28 SW flow event. I think neutral winters are really about long-term tendencies and lagged patterns...we'd probably be OK this time around if we saw the NAO staying consistently negative. There are a lot of great neutral winters like 59-60, 60-61, 03-04, and 08-09. In this case we might get a little hangover from the strong Niña pattern but might square things out if the -NAO was a factor. I think I'd be inclined to go cold/snowy overall if ENSO was neutral and the -NAO was present during summer. I'd rather be neutral than go back to moderate/strong Niña which would probably be a disaster at this point now that we're too far to receive the effects of the old Niño/-QBO pattern.

[A-L-E-X]

Ray will kill you for this statement, lol.

Oh damn, I thought the cold weather caused a really suppressive pattern that winter. Did Ray do well when the pattern relaxed in February? If so, awesome-- because it sounds like it might have set the stage for what happened the following winter

I've always wondered about consecutive la ninas and el ninos having a cumulative effect.... does the second one add to the effect of the first one? IOW does the second el nino act more like a moderate (stronger southern stream, more moisture, bigger coastals.)

In the same vein, does switching from a la nina to el nino or vice versa maintain some kind of "memory effect" of the prior ENSO? La ninas after el ninos seem to be particularly snowy around here.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah there's so many different variables that we still don't know much about...or don't have the ability to predict. MJO "phase X" might mean one thing when we are in a predominately -NAO state versus a +NAO state. Also to what degree are they connected? They probably aren't 100% mutually exclusive variables.

We saw this year that all strong Ninas are not the same...just because the late 1990s Ninas torched to hell after a strong Nina, didn't mean that this year was going to. It was all about the N PAC not having a brutal vortex over AK/Bering straight which would cut off the cold air supply to Canada. Instead the Aleution high anomaly (which was expected) extended well northward into Kamchatka and Bering straight and that allow plenty of cold air to be spilled into NW Canada and then sent down the pipeline SE via the NAO block

The NAO block of course is what cause the M.A. and SE to be cold this winter...the PAC was the most important thing for Canada and probably N Tier.

I think it could have been potentially ugly without the -NAO. The -NAO this time around, meant snow. That ridge in the NPAC I think was most "Nina like" in February and the first half of March, but it very well may have teleconnected to the -PNA disaster that we have now, if we did not have the blocking. Luckily in January we had the NPAC ridging further east over the western NA, thanks to that MJO burst.

[ORH_wxman]

Oh damn, I thought the cold weather caused a really suppressive pattern that winter. Did Ray do well when the pattern relaxed in February? If so, awesome-- because it sounds like it might have set the stage for what happened the following winter

I've always wondered about consecutive la ninas and el ninos having a cumulative effect.... does the second one add to the effect of the first one? IOW does the second el nino act more like a moderate (stronger southern stream, more moisture, bigger coastals.)

In the same vein, does switching from a la nina to el nino or vice versa maintain some kind of "memory effect" of the prior ENSO? La ninas after el ninos seem to be particularly snowy around here.

'76-'77 had a lot of late blooming storms...and several inverted trough features. It had a huge rainstorm for NYC in January (that started as snow) but stayed mostly snow for Boston...basically a SWFE...though a late coastal formed. Ray had like 97 inches of snow that winter. More than here actually which was 89 inches. Boston did fine at over 58 inches, but they were actually relatively screwed as just off the water from Logan it ramped up very quick.

[CoastalWx]

I think it could have been potentially ugly without the -NAO. The -NAO this time around, meant snow. That ridge in the NPAC I think was most "Nina like" in February and the first half of March, but it very well may have teleconnected to the -PNA disaster that we have now, if we did not have the blocking. Luckily in January we had the NPAC ridging further east over the western NA, thanks to that MJO burst.

FWIW, I know we have done well in -PNA patterns....just saying this one could have been potentially ugly, except for that MJO burst.

Anyways..could have..should have..would have...fact is, we had a great run.

[A-L-E-X]

And then you have years like '08-'09.

Yeah there really doesnt seem to be a pattern LOL -- multiple factors at play. The funny thing is back in 08 we were all looking forward to a cold snowy December (which did happen but not to the extent we thought) and then we thought the pattern would flip to mild in January-- and that didn't happen. I remember HM said he got the nao pattern right that winter, but it was delayed by 2 weeks-- so the mild pattern came after a cold snap in early Feb and then we went back to cold and snow for a brief time at the end of Feb and early March. Some were actually using 08-09 as an analog for this winter.

[A-L-E-X]

'76-'77 had a lot of late blooming storms...and several inverted trough features. It had a huge rainstorm for NYC in January (that started as snow) but stayed mostly snow for Boston...basically a SWFE...though a late coastal formed. Ray had like 97 inches of snow that winter. More than here actually which was 89 inches. Boston did fine at over 58 inches, but they were actually relatively screwed as just off the water from Logan it ramped up very quick.

Wow, historic winter for Ray right there-- about 10 inches more than this year (I think he's had close to 90 this season.)

[cheetah440]

Last year.

Didn't we get like 15" of rain in March with epic flooding? Not my idea of a nice spring.

[nzucker]

We saw this year that all strong Ninas are not the same...just because the late 1990s Ninas torched to hell after a strong Nina, didn't mean that this year was going to. It was all about the N PAC not having a brutal vortex over AK/Bering straight which would cut off the cold air supply to Canada. Instead the Aleution high anomaly (which was expected) extended well northward into Kamchatka and Bering straight and that allow plenty of cold air to be spilled into NW Canada and then sent down the pipeline SE via the NAO block

The biggest difference in the colder Niñas (07-08, 10-11) versus the warm ones (98-99, 99-00) seems to be the orientation of the Aleutian ridge: if it is oriented west-east, the CONUS is warm because no arctic air invades Canada as a big vortex develops to the NE of that high anomaly. If it is oriented more north-south like this year, cold spills down the Canadian Prairies from that Kamchatka block and keeps us colder than normal.

[ORH_wxman]

I think it could have been potentially ugly without the -NAO. The -NAO this time around, meant snow. That ridge in the NPAC I think was most "Nina like" in February and the first half of March, but it very well may have teleconnected to the -PNA disaster that we have now, if we did not have the blocking. Luckily in January we had the NPAC ridging further east over the western NA, thanks to that MJO burst.

Yeah the 2nd half of January saw a big WC ridge teleconnect with the ridging in AK/Bering Straight. There was a time it was all one big ridge that month. That's when we saw the brutally cold arctic outbreak that dumped BOS below 0F for the first time since 2005 and it helped produce the Jan 26-27 storm and even the little fluff bomb before that on 1/21.

We actually had a western trough for the 1/12 event...that storm would have been a torching cutter if it weren't for the NAO block...it looked a lot like Mar 3, 1960. Just not quite as digging as far south as that one did.

[ORH_wxman]

FWIW, I know we have done well in -PNA patterns....just saying this one could have been potentially ugly, except for that MJO burst.

Anyways..could have..should have..would have...fact is, we had a great run.

-PNA patterns are most successful with -NAO...that's why we said we like -NAO/-PNA here. Jan 12th HECS was that type of setup.

It also depends on the magnitude of the -PNA....if its very negative, then it obviously gets worse.