Give up on an encore

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah if we could have avoided the Grinch storm and the Dec 28-29 torch that winter, then we probably could have come at least somewhat close to this year's snow depths...not as much, but within shouting distance.

But in those gradient Nina years, it can be tough to go those entire snowy stretches without some Grinch appearances or a random torch. Just the nature of those types of years. You play with fire enough and you'll get burned. The trade off though is you get to have a lot more snow than Kevin, lol.

It will be interesting to see if we get another Nina next winter or if we go neutral. Anyone's guess right now though.

Isn't neutral after la nina really bad, Will? A weak el nino or weak la nina would be preferred.

[ski MRG]

34/19, Nice day with some accumulating snow. Trails with a little refreshing veneer. Nice.

[dendrite]

I get Ray's 34F and RA on the 18z NAM for Wed. It will be a windows-down type of day on Thu though with 850s around +4C with WNW flow and really dry air above H9.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not huge on the percentage play for reasons that you've already outline.....percentage play woild have dictated a sh*tty winter, this past year.

The seasons which feature a futile March provide the best opportunities to beat you....I just need a sneaky .6".

I'm a sicko'

Well yeah, in years where we have bad sample size, then I think its bad to go "percentage"....though we do have some situations that are much higher sample size where you can make a bit better than random guess by going percentage. I was always weary of the calls this year of a bad winter because the NAO was so robust going in and had been showing no signs of breaking down. We did keep it through mid January and that made a big difference despite a relatively hostile PAC....until the PAC went favorable around the time the NAO broke down. Then the PAC broke down and we got a gradient pattern in Feb...and a nothing pattern in March so far as the PAC has gone beyond "broke down" to "downright hostile".

I'm not sure we'll ever know why the NAO stayed so robust the first half...and whether the Nina was the force that finally broke it down (but it took it 10 weeks to do it) or whether there was something else contributing to the eventual break down. My theory is that something else was wanting to keep it negative (like it had been the previous 30 months) and it took the Nina a good 10 weeks and its strongest forcing to finally break it down. I'm wondering if we will see the NAO flip back to a predominately negative state once this Nina weakens its grip a bit.

As for your 0.6"....if you had gotten 0.6" today, I probably would have gotten 1.0"

Maybe you'll get a junk NE MA special on Mar 26-27 or something. They are still possible though less and less likely.

[DavisStraight]

Yeah well, its almost pure speculation at this point in the year....as is usually the case. I remember we were hearing potential weak Nino too after the '07-'08 Nina and we basically got a weak Nina the next winter (though technically neutral on trimonthly ONI).

We'll have a much better idea in about 3 months...though even then its still far from certain. One thing of note is we've never seen a potent Nino go to a potent Nina and back to a Nino in 3 years. However, as is often the case, sample size issues abound, but the percentage play would be Nina again or neutral.

What would be better Will, a weak nina or neutral? Or does the NAO play a bigger role?

[Typhoon Tip]

Anything we get in the next week to 10 days will probably be almost pure luck. PNA is so negative, esp later this week...normally we could start getting away with it, but its magnitude is so strong that its still affecting the pattern quite a ways downstream in the form a huge SE ridge,

Ah, I think you ought to check that, Will. It's spiking at both agencies...

Whether it will means a hill of beans to the N/A patter, who knows -

[A-L-E-X]

What would be better Will, a weak nina or neutral? Or does the NAO play a bigger role?

Hopefully the low solar continues into next winter to keep the NAO negative.

[nzucker]

I'm not sure we'll ever know why the NAO stayed so robust the first half...and whether the Nina was the force that finally broke it down (but it took it 10 weeks to do it) or whether there was something else contributing to the eventual break down. My theory is that something else was wanting to keep it negative (like it had been the previous 30 months) and it took the Nina a good 10 weeks and its strongest forcing to finally break it down. I'm wondering if we will see the NAO flip back to a predominately negative state once this Nina weakens its grip a bit.

Do you think the increase in solar activity with the CME was the force that finally broke down the NAO blocking? Perhaps the low solar activity was leading to a static state of the global jet, which was infused with blocking tendencies from the previous El Niño/-QBO/low solar regime that had dominated in 09-10? Could it have been sort of a hangover effect that finally petered out?

One thing that befuddles me is the pattern switch we've seen this winter, almost 89-90 like. We went from record breaking blocking in December with extreme low height anomalies in the SE to a pattern that now favors storms tracking well north of us with a strong +NAO/Baffin Island vortex. Obviously we knew the Pacific would eventually trend into a hostile state given the strong La Niña, and that did happen with the MJO burst in January dying out, but what happened on the Atlantic side?

[ski MRG]

MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION

WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECTING A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...

TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA...

PARTICULARLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.

Nice. Every little bit helps.

[ORH_wxman]

Ah, I think you ought to check that, Will. It's spiking at both agencies...

Whether it will means a hill of beans to the N/A patter, who knows -

PNA is affected by the height field S of the Aleutions as well as the interior of W Canada (we tend to focus on the latter)...the trough is actually a broad trough that covers the WC and heights in Canada or NW Canada are actually near neutral with another trough hitting Aleutions...giving lower heights near and SW of the Aleutions that would cause the PNA index number to rise. So you might see the number not be representative of its downstream effect on the east coast. The huge broad WC trough is seemingly trumping anything else. There is a bit of a split flow pseudo block near Baffin Island back to Hudson Bay in the D5 time frame, so I suppose there is room for something if we get really lucky, but that WC trough going to be a tough obstacle to overcome.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Big, big winter incoming. Big, big winter!!!

The snow gods are still paying you guys back in Boston for March 1993. I remember the last event very late that month Brockton on north just barely threaded the needle and had a fun 6 inch plus wet snow bomb.

Was really nice to see the snow. Id like to see one more snow event. Will be nice to see the torch too. I love march.

[ORH_wxman]

Do you think the increase in solar activity with the CME was the force that finally broke down the NAO blocking? Perhaps the low solar activity was leading to a static state of the global jet, which was infused with blocking tendencies from the previous El Niño/-QBO/low solar regime that had dominated in 09-10? Could it have been sort of a hangover effect that finally petered out?

One thing that befuddles me is the pattern switch we've seen this winter, almost 89-90 like. We went from record breaking blocking in December with extreme low height anomalies in the SE to a pattern that now favors storms tracking well north of us with a strong +NAO/Baffin Island vortex. Obviously we knew the Pacific would eventually trend into a hostile state given the strong La Niña, and that did happen with the MJO burst in January dying out, but what happened on the Atlantic side?

No, the NAO had broken down before we saw any ramp up in activity and even then, its not like we are anything close to what you'd consider overly active sun, its merely just waking up. I think the strong -ENSO state and fast flow along with +QBO was likely against a -NAO and it finally broke it down but it got plenty of resistance before it was able to finally take control. Don't forget that the strongest Nina effects are not usually felt until later in the winter due to the typical lag we see in North America pattern vs ENSO.

All it did IMHO was show that we have a lot of other factors that we still do not know about the NAO. We do know that stronger Nina and +QBO tend to favor more +NAO, but its far from the only factors and we don't have a good handle on it.

[nzucker]

PNA is affected by the height field S of the Aleutions as well as the interior of W Canada (we tend to focus on the latter)...the trough is actually a broad trough that covers the WC and heights in Canada or NW Canada are actually near neutral with another trough hitting Aleutions...giving lower heights near and SW of the Aleutions that would cause the PNA index number to rise. So you might see the number not be representative of its downstream effect on the east coast. The huge broad WC trough is seemingly trumping anything else. There is a bit of a split flow pseudo block near Baffin Island back to Hudson Bay in the D5 time frame, so I suppose there is room for something if we get really lucky, but that WC trough going to be a tough obstacle to overcome.

It's a shame we're wasting so much arctic air in Canada...we've had a really brutal airmass over Canada since February but have absolutely nothing to show for it. Both the 12z ECM and 12z GFS show the West Coast trough dominating into the long-range with a classic strong La Niña Aleutian ridge/Pacific NW low configuration. High heights prevail over the Northeast with occasional shots of warmth followed by washed out cold fronts, with most of the arctic air locked up over Greenland in that big vortex. This pattern is why I was skeptical we'd see a good winter; it took enough time for the strong La Niña regime to arrive that we were allowed a period of great winter weather, but now things are looking bleak. Probably time to close the books on this one outside of high elevations. Hopefully this strong La Niña says bye bye next year and we are left with a weak ENSO state, preferably El Niño for me.

[nzucker]

No, the NAO had broken down before we saw any ramp up in activity and even then, its not like we are anything close to what you'd consider overly active sun, its merely just waking up. I think the strong -ENSO state and fast flow along with +QBO was likely against a -NAO and it finally broke it down but it got plenty of resistance before it was able to finally take control. Don't forget that the strongest Nina effects are not usually felt until later in the winter due to the typical lag we see in North America pattern vs ENSO.

All it did IMHO was show that we have a lot of other factors that we still do not know about the NAO. We do know that stronger Nina and +QBO tend to favor more +NAO, but its far from the only factors and we don't have a good handle on it.

Yeah I feel like the NAO broke down early January while the ramp-up in solar activity wasn't until February, so that can't possibly be the best explanation. We were fortunate that the breakdown in the NAO blocking coincided with a favorable MJO state, otherwise we might have lost the January 27th Nor'easter. And yes, good point about the lag: the most "classic" La Niña pattern has been realized in February many winters, as is the case of 54-55 and 88-89, where the troughing didn't fully shift into the West Coast until February. We certainly saw the traditional cold Pacific NW/warm Northeast arrive this February after a very unusual pattern in December and January.

Do you know if the QBO exerts more effects at some parts of the winter than others?

[Ginx snewx]

OT but in case my friends in SNE missed the link on the main page perhaps the best representation of what a Tsunami does from ground level

http://www.facebook.com/cwinnick/posts/160451300677167

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I feel like the NAO broke down early January while the ramp-up in solar activity wasn't until February, so that can't possibly be the best explanation. We were fortunate that the breakdown in the NAO blocking coincided with a favorable MJO state, otherwise we might have lost the January 27th Nor'easter. And yes, good point about the lag: the most "classic" La Niña pattern has been realized in February many winters, as is the case of 54-55 and 88-89, where the troughing didn't fully shift into the West Coast until February. We certainly saw the traditional cold Pacific NW/warm Northeast arrive this February after a very unusual pattern in December and January.

Do you know if the QBO exerts more effects at some parts of the winter than others?

Careful, it was quite a gradient pattern actually. Most of New England was below avg while NYC southward was above avg. We lost the coastal snowstorm pattern and it turned into SW flow events.

So far its intensified in March and we've warmed up, but February was actually a cold month in NE. It just wasn't as cold as January and not nearly as snowy (for SNE anyway). But I think BOS had over 18" in February and I had around 24" while the south coast got crap. I don't want to get into the debate again with other posters about February, but it was a gradient pattern, so different perspective for different folks.

[CoastalWx]

Careful, it was quite a gradient pattern actually. Most of New England was below avg while NYC southward was above avg. We lost the coastal snowstorm pattern and it turned into SW flow events.

So far its intensified in March and we've warmed up, but February was actually a cold month in NE. It just wasn't as cold as January and not nearly as snowy (for SNE anyway). But I think BOS had over 18" in February and I had around 24" while the south coast got crap. I don't want to get into the debate again with other posters about February, but it was a gradient pattern, so different perspective for different folks.

Weren't some of the Nina analogs with this type of blocking seemingly front end loaded? I thought I remember some of the blocking relaxing and months like February becoming more Nina like. I know this is a basic trait for many Ninas, but I remember some of those years being front loaded.

[CoastalWx]

Well either way, the QBO is beginning to fall so perhaps it bodes well for next year. I was thinking perhaps a weak Nina or maybe neutral, but I'm not expert. I'm actually more interested to see how the NAO behaves in the coming months.

[A-L-E-X]

Weren't some of the Nina analogs with this type of blocking seemingly front end loaded? I thought I remember some of the blocking relaxing and months like February becoming more Nina like. I know this is a basic trait for many Ninas, but I remember some of those years being front loaded.

Yes, but many of those analogs actually show that while the pattern relaxes in February it reloads in March. That hasnt happened this year.

[Damage In Tolland]

One of the local stations in CT which is Ryans comp.. has 68 for HFD on Friday lol

[CoastalWx]

Yes, but many of those analogs actually show that while the pattern relaxes in February it reloads in March. That hasnt happened this year.

Yeah I've seen that, but I think some of them weren't as robust with the blocking in March. Perhaps the strength of this Nina has something to do with this.

This year just gave a big FU to analogs. If anything, it probably humbled those that do long range forecasting.

[CoastalWx]

One of the local stations in CT which is Ryans comp.. has 68 for HFD on Friday lol

One has 68 up here.

[Damage In Tolland]

One has 68 up here.

GFS rip and read it looks like to me. I think Thursday is the warmer day

[ORH_wxman]

Weren't some of the Nina analogs with this type of blocking seemingly front end loaded? I thought I remember some of the blocking relaxing and months like February becoming more Nina like. I know this is a basic trait for many Ninas, but I remember some of those years being front loaded.

Yeah a lot of potent Ninas that ended up good winters were front loaded like '75-'76, '07-'08, '70-'71...

[ski MRG]

Big, big winter incoming. Big, big winter!!!

The snow gods are still paying you guys back in Boston for March 1993. I remember the last event very late that month Brockton on north just barely threaded the needle and had a fun 6 inch plus wet snow bomb.

Still no snow down there? Bummer.

[nzucker]

Careful, it was quite a gradient pattern actually. Most of New England was below avg while NYC southward was above avg. We lost the coastal snowstorm pattern and it turned into SW flow events.

So far its intensified in March and we've warmed up, but February was actually a cold month in NE. It just wasn't as cold as January and not nearly as snowy (for SNE anyway). But I think BOS had over 18" in February and I had around 24" while the south coast got crap. I don't want to get into the debate again with other posters about February, but it was a gradient pattern, so different perspective for different folks.

Yeah I realized that after I wrote it...most of the East was warm but not New England. That can often happen in a La Niña where you have cold air over Canada and moderate troughing out west...events like to run up into the OH Valley and keep New England on the cold/snowy side while everyone else sees a warm-up. This happened in 07-08 where the cold anomalies were mostly centered over the Mountain West/Northern Plains but NNE stayed around average for the winter despite NYC being torched by lows tracking up their fanny. I remember talking to someone at Middlebury that year when I was down in Poughkeepsie for the semester; I mentioned that it had been such a warm winter and he was incredulous since Middlebury had seen average temperatures with lots of snowfall while the Hudson Valley was mild with bare ground.

I did OK this February with 8" from the 2/21 overrunning, but the huge torch ruined the snowpack and made the month feel less than wintry. The 2/2-3 storm was also supposed to involve more snow and ended up being almost all ice for the NYC northern suburbs. The gradient has definitely shifted north this March, however, as I'd venture that many places in Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes are below average, and temperatures have been brutally cold in Greenland/Baffin. We've lost all semblance of blocking and so basically your latitude determines how much cold you receive right now, and for NYC south that's been very little.

Weren't some of the Nina analogs with this type of blocking seemingly front end loaded? I thought I remember some of the blocking relaxing and months like February becoming more Nina like. I know this is a basic trait for many Ninas, but I remember some of those years being front loaded.

88-89 was a decent example....December was slightly below average in the East, but then February was normal to above normal for most of the East Coast.

60-61 was a weak Niña/negative neutral year with an historic run from December 10-February 4...the rest of the winter was mild.

54-55, a moderate Niña, had a cold SE during December; February was mild in the East with cold over the Plains/West.

55-56, a strong Niña with good blocking, had an extremely cold December in the Northeast. January and February were quite mild and snowless until the blocking returned for a very severe March.

[nzucker]

Yeah a lot of potent Ninas that ended up good winters were front loaded like '75-'76, '07-'08, '70-'71...

Yeah Dec/Jan of 75-76 was cold with favorable MJO and then the furnace door opened. Way more extreme than this year but similar progression.

December 07 was quite chilly, even down here, at points. Warmth prevailed in Jan/Feb until some colder air returned in March.

70-71 had a brutal Dec/Jan but then warmed up.

It seems that the La Niña winters almost universally have a colder December than February in the East. The wild card is March: in some years, like 1956, the blocking returns. Other times, like 75-76 and 10-11, the winter is basically over after January.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah a lot of potent Ninas that ended up good winters were front loaded like '75-'76, '07-'08, '70-'71...

Oh I mean ones that had mdt-strong NAO blocking. I think the tendency was to lose the blocking in February, but then try and come back during March.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I realized that after I wrote it...most of the East was warm but not New England. That can often happen in a La Niña where you have cold air over Canada and moderate troughing out west...events like to run up into the OH Valley and keep New England on the cold/snowy side while everyone else sees a warm-up. This happened in 07-08 where the cold anomalies were mostly centered over the Mountain West/Northern Plains but NNE stayed around average for the winter despite NYC being torched by lows tracking up their fanny. I remember talking to someone at Middlebury that year when I was down in Poughkeepsie for the semester; I mentioned that it had been such a warm winter and he was incredulous since Middlebury had seen average temperatures with lots of snowfall while the Hudson Valley was mild with bare ground.

I did OK this February with 8" from the 2/21 overrunning, but the huge torch ruined the snowpack and made the month feel less than wintry. The 2/2-3 storm was also supposed to involve more snow and ended up being almost all ice for the NYC northern suburbs. The gradient has definitely shifted north this March, however, as I'd venture that many places in Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes are below average, and temperatures have been brutally cold in Greenland/Baffin. We've lost all semblance of blocking and so basically your latitude determines how much cold you receive right now, and for NYC south that's been very little.

88-89 was a decent example....December was slightly below average in the East, but then February was normal to above normal for most of the East Coast.

60-61 was a weak Niña/negative neutral year with an historic run from December 10-February 4...the rest of the winter was mild.

54-55, a moderate Niña, had a cold SE during December; February was mild in the East with cold over the Plains/West.

55-56, a strong Niña with good blocking, had an extremely cold December in the Northeast. January and February were quite mild and snowless until the blocking returned for a very severe March.

Yeah I went back and looked... the 50s and 60s were on my mind. The MJO was a huge help in January for us, this year. Another piece of the long range puzzle that's always tough to figure out, and proof that we can have these waves, even in strong Ninas.

[weatherMA]

One has 68 up here.

GFS rip and read it looks like to me. I think Thursday is the warmer day

Well, the other 2 have 56 and 60. I think on one of those snow--ice--rain storms in late Feb channel 7 had 50s getting into all of mass and BOS got to like 42F while the ORH hills held on to ice. lol.

It doesnt matter though, D.C should be in the mid 70s