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Give up on an encore


Typhoon Tip

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WOW, enjoy Pete, amazing winter is still hanging on up there, its been gone for weeks here, last snow was 2/21 and Feb featured only 4.7, March nada............but the beach is beautiful and the flowers are popping. Enjoy the spring skiing!

lol. Not that amazing, pretty typical. Glad you're enjoying life Joe. I'll get into Spring when May gets here. Until then it's all about the snow. March has not been very impressive yet but time for that to change. February was good with 3' falling. I can't even imagine flowers popping out. Some of my golf buddies have been trying to get me to head south for some golf but honestly I'm in total Winter mode. There will be plenty of time to golf in the off season. Hope to see you at a GTG sometime soon. When is the next one planned for?

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46.4" here since February 1st. :snowman:

The 0Z GFS as two excellent snow threats after the 21st or so.... The next week looks blah March-like and even here in GC-west, I expect to be denuded of snow cover outside of the woods.

WOW, enjoy Pete, amazing winter is still hanging on up there, its been gone for weeks here, last snow was 2/21 and Feb featured only 4.7, March nada............but the beach is beautiful and the flowers are popping. Enjoy the spring skiing!

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May? We had an inch on May 8th last year. LOL Of course it was an oasis in a desert of horrid Spring warmth....

lol. Not that amazing, pretty typical. Glad you're enjoying life Joe. I'll get into Spring when May gets here. Until then it's all about the snow. March has not been very impressive yet but time for that to change. February was good with 3' falling. I can't even imagine flowers popping out. Some of my golf buddies have been trying to get me to head south for some golf but honestly I'm in total Winter mode. There will be plenty of time to golf in the off season. Hope to see you at a GTG sometime soon. When is the next one planned for?

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46.4" here since February 1st. :snowman:

The 0Z GFS as two excellent snow threats after the 21st or so.... The next week looks blah March-like and even here in GC-west, I expect to be denuded of snow cover outside of the woods.

You know we're going to get tagged. It'll be great to be able to have the seasonal go up. It'll also be great to have the Warminista/Winter is Over crowd eat crow...or should I say snow?

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May? We had an inch on May 8th last year. LOL Of course it was an oasis in a desert of horrid Spring warmth....

I'll still get some skiing in duruing May, usually do but that is the month that is the over lap. As long as the putrid warmth is held at bay I'm fine with Spring weather.

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WOW, enjoy Pete, amazing winter is still hanging on up there, its been gone for weeks here, last snow was 2/21 and Feb featured only 4.7, March nada............but the beach is beautiful and the flowers are popping. Enjoy the spring skiing!

I think Fairfield and Nassau County are the only places sitting in that hole in the clouds at the moment.

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I just hope it's by the 28th... I pushed my annual FL trip (to see my 93 year old aunt) off as late as I could. Due to horse babysitting duties I'm forced to go that week.

You know we're going to get tagged. It'll be great to be able to have the seasonal go up. It'll also be great to have the Warminista/Winter is Over crowd eat crow...or should I say snow?

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Looking back over the last 40 years, in some of our best early Spring snow years, it has been preceded by at least one "false Spring" period of very mild weather. I remember 60's and beautiful Spring wx before the cold pattern and major snow storm of April 1982 for instance.

Probably 70F+ for the interior warm spots there.

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I'd agree if we are just talking about late season threats with a neutral or positive NAO. But if the NAO tanks negative then snow could occur anywhere even to the coast with one of these systems.

Its over for everyone outside the mountains, just enjoy this beautiful spring day, look forward to constant torch trolling from CTHEAT and mini skirts.

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I'm quite ready for the melt. Was walking across the yard today pruning apple and plum trees and the snow was still up to my knees. Totally heavy corny water logged snowpack. At my stake 20 inches...and that hasn't moved in a week. Would like a warm stretch and some melting and then maybe a nice snowstorm or 2. Ready for spring though and beginning to plan the garden planting plan.

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I'm quite ready for the melt. Was walking across the yard today pruning apple and plum trees and the snow was still up to my knees. Totally heavy corny water logged snowpack. At my stake 20 inches...and that hasn't moved in a week. Would like a warm stretch and some melting and then maybe a nice snowstorm or 2. Ready for spring though and beginning to plan the garden planting plan.

You're in jeopardy of losing your CoT status with comments like that. Retract immediately.

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Looking back over the last 40 years, in some of our best early Spring snow years, it has been preceded by at least one "false Spring" period of very mild weather. I remember 60's and beautiful Spring wx before the cold pattern and major snow storm of April 1982 for instance.

Wasn't the great Blizzard of 1888 preceded by balmy temps?

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I'm quite ready for the melt. Was walking across the yard today pruning apple and plum trees and the snow was still up to my knees. Totally heavy corny water logged snowpack. At my stake 20 inches...and that hasn't moved in a week. Would like a warm stretch and some melting and then maybe a nice snowstorm or 2. Ready for spring though and beginning to plan the garden planting plan.

Yeah....similar here. I'd hardly call it a "snow" pack at this point. It's more like firn/neve. :lol:
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That's the one Will has been harping about for about a week. :)

The 12z EC is possibly a few inches up here...especially for the higher terrain.

well, actually ...it was in part why this thread was even started but yea. prolly should have read, 'oh yeah, i forgot'.

00z runs went out of their way to make any precip potential lose any winter character - almost like ...on purpose. lol

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Euro ensembles are quite different. They have a decent cold shot days 7-8 then a gradual warmup days 9-10, with much lower heights over SE Canada than the operational Euro.

Rarely will the ensemble mean of any given model be more extreme than the deterministic version by virtue of numbers. Unfortunately, that can hurt determinism just as much as help it at times.

The deterministic ECM used to carry a heavier bias of digging heights too far SW of the environmental flow with troughs coming off the Pacific, then lingering those heights too long once that bias was executed ... only serving to compound said error. The upgrades in the model over the last 10 years, one would think, tries to correct for that - but I still have seen even this season a tendency for too much westerly bias at times. A couple of cyclone translations from Feb 10 to Mar 5 period of time were through the GL even as near as 84 hours, and wound up proven false with too much primary strength in Michigan when things were all said and done. That said, it is possible here that the even subtle bias for lowering heights over the Rockies is relaying a heftier ridge potential into the Southeast, and that in turn lifts the ambient polar boundary too far N over the upper OV and NE regions.

It's that time of year... if you are on the S side of said boundary, 50-70s, on the N, 30s with snow grains and drabby rains.

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well, actually ...it was in part why this thread was even started but yea. prolly should have read, 'oh yeah, i forgot'.

00z runs went out of their way to make any precip potential lose any winter character - almost like ...on purpose. lol

Been this way for a month or so...longer range threats turn warmer in close. Don't see a reason for that to change.

Another 50 degree day...this one cloudy and without wind.

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Yes, it was indeed. As was the April Fools' Day 1997 storm...

Yes. But March of 1997 was a cold and snowy month prior to that blizzard. And yes, 3/30 was a warm day....but the blizzard was well signaled and the regime supported it. That year if you recall had an obcenely warm February and a cold March. This year, we had a relatively normal to slightly below February and (so far), a warm and relatively snowless March.

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Oh yea, heh. I'm sitting here wondering why the morning went by so fast and then a little reminder applet popped to let me know that human time convention just tried to extend our lives an extra hour into the future.

Can you imagine a scenario - say some psycho was scheduled for death by lethal injection at 2:15 a.m. on the 13th of March, 2011. Then, it was 2:00 a.m., and suddenly it was 3:00 a.m., and thus her execution was stayed by the virtue of a time miss-handling. haha.

Or, worse yet - suppose a presumed psycho was pleading for a stay of her execution, scheduled for 3:15 a.m., and her whole case was dependent on some late breaking piece of evidence that could/would exonerate her and completely absolve her as having any culpability in the death of a GOP politician. No one's paying attention at 2 a.m. when the clock system of the state is automatically adjusted for the time change, and then they glance up ... Okay, 15 minutes. That key piece of evidence is held by a single source, the attorney, who's out in the middle of east bum**** Alabama. "Oh shi - no, not now" - his battery dies on his cell phone, and he never bothered to get a cigarette lighter charger because for some reason, every time he tries replace the fuse that serves that feature it blows. Unbeknownst to him, the clocks all just changed; he's 1 hour of driving away from the Governor's office with that key evidence, but ... too late.

I don't see why the NCEP system has to go by the time change. They should be able to keep the system scheduling the same regardless of the time change.

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Yes. But March of 1997 was a cold and snowy month prior to that blizzard. And yes, 3/30 was a warm day....but the blizzard was well signaled and the regime supported it. That year if you recall had an obcenely warm February and a cold March. This year, we had a relatively normal to slightly below February and (so far), a warm and relatively snowless March.

2 days in consecutive order immediately prior to the 1997 April event were at or exceeded 60F at UML - jfyi

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2 days in consecutive order immediately prior to the 1997 April event were at or exceeded 60F at UML - jfyi

I remember well running around Jamaica Pond that Sunday in shorts and a t-shirt. But the month as a whole was cold and snowy vs climo even prior to the big event.

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