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Give up on an encore

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

29, -sn continues. Not even a hint of Spring here this AM.

lol, except the fact that the snow pack has been getting destroyed the past week and its already above freezing at 10am....even in the arctic community of W Chesterfield. No need to sugar coat it, we are getting a full onslaught so far in March.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

Join me in a moment of silence because Scooter has passed away, at the keyboard.....either that, or he bent Allison over it, mid-post.

:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

This winter will be rememberd by me as the Bi-Polar winter ......as we all know ...and this is in regards to 90% of SNE (Not the east slope and not the cape or S coastal RI)...Dec sucked cept for the last five days ...Jan was Epic....Feb 1'st couple days were epic then average thu end of month....and now March sucks much like the first 23 days of december did.

This winter was like JD drew......in a sense (perhaps a better metaphor could be found...i.e a better but streaky hitter) Awesome pattern or shiat pattern for the most part ...cept mid feb was pretty steady tony gwynn like. those 40 days of awesomeness from DEC 26 to FEB 3 or so added quite the happiness to my winter months emotionally there is no denying that.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Well you know me...I'm not one to complain, but if we have another shut out March..that's a horrible and disappointing end to a great winter. It's getting old, real quick. A nice March caps off the winter, and makes April and May more tolerable, if they become disasters. Now we may have to endure three lousy months, but lets hope the back door fronts take it easy on us. At least last Spring was nice, which sort of took the pain off of March.

I still hope for a fluke, but it's just a bummer to end winter this way...if indeed we receive little to no snow. You look forward to winter for a good chunk of the year, and it's gone after 8 weeks. For some reason, that's been the trend.

Almost finished with my first novel attempt. I have picked at it here and there, sometimes very motivated, other times only a little over the last 3 years. I have over 100 pages in MS Word, which is probably 250 in standard publishing typeset (not that size matters). It has nothing to do with the weather, though. It's a Sci-Fi effort about artificial intelligence. One of my closer friends is asking me the obvious, why not write a novel about the weather? Not really motivated to do so, ironically. Most of the fantastic story lines, from the allegory to the obvious, are all cliche at this point. Climate disasters, asteroid impacts, religiously preordained, 2012...etc, heavily used and well, boring because of that. Yes, yes, Greenland rattles off its back like a dog out of pond and all it's ice tumbles into the sea in a single calamity, setting off a global tsunamis.

People have been throwing accolades at me for writing for years, telling me often how they thought I should try and do something finished, and expose a "talent" as it were. No vote of confidence.

Mostly I just ignored them (the accolades, not the people) because at the end of the day I have deep rooted ego troubles, as well as fears of a delusion that hides the fact that I am really Forest Gump. My grades in college were a joke - of course, I do not think I studied more than 500 hours across those 5 years there, where switched from Music, to English ... ultimately to Meteorology. I suppose it stands to reason. I never connected the work to the fascination of weather. Perhaps that was a maturity thing - even at 26 years of age, while many of my friends were already getting married, and buying houses with their nearing 6-digit salaries because they timely graduated by 22 and had 4 years of professionalism under their belts, I was still just a Junior in college with monthly appointments with the Dean of Admissions where I would plead not him/her not to kick me out of college and into shimmering accomplished echelon of gas station attendance. My ability for run-on sentences kept me in the game. Seriously, it never hit home. I think a better part of it was simply that I love the romanticism and the experience, and didn't care for the tedium of mathematics and measurement. I probably would have made a much better student now.

The Music thing was speed bump narcissism era of personal growth I needed to get over. I sat at the piano for the first time when I was 19 years of age, and 3 weeks later I had the first movement of Beethoven's "Moonlight Sonata" and some strange ability to improve random chords together along with some native prescience regarding rhythm. Folks would tell me, "you gotta do something with that talent". It's fun and nice to play, but I never put any effort in and did not want to, and do not really care. Not sure why. So I auditioned for the Music Conservatory up and UML's South Campus, and was given probationary entrance into the program. I passed everything at the audition except the reading. I could not read from the Grand Staff and associate it to the keyboard. That takes years of practice for most, and my seemingly "savantism" with the music its self did not come with that specific skill - at all really. Still, they recognized the other and gave me a chance, saying that the conditions of my probation were that I had to, in one semester, learn the sight-reading association to the keyboard.

Then I met Christine. She was a 29 year-old Italian RIS art graduate and dancer, engaged to a 55 year-old PHD psychology recipient, who inherited millions when the last of his aristocratic Long Island progenitors passed away. This clown was a piece of work. This smack during the grunge era of the early to mid 1990's and he was beyond the pail as far as posers go... I think the used to even sell the look at the local Banana Republics of the day. Christine's body was clearly sculpted out of God's clay. She was, when I met her, in a period of deeper resent for this turkey because he was despondent, seemingly disconnected and overtly aloof with regard to her, and her wants and dreams. She was a starving artist engaged to him, and he was blissfully without responsibility for that arrangement? Yeah, I guess that's a rub. I don't know. But here I came with my 5-hour long erections and big heart, and open ears, and so on the tawdry affair could not have been better composed by the finest morally challenged authors of the Romance genre. And I lived it.

Shortly after he chased me down the streets of Brooklin with a camera and a gun, yelling how he was going to photograph me so that when these bullets missed he could hunt me down and shoot me, and the house of cards that had temporarily removed me from the collegiate process had come crumbling down, reality rose like a sunrise over a dark, brokenhearted landscape. Even if one's reality offers less comfort ... well, I don't know, I guess that person is truly f c ed, but at least I had the reality of trying school again. So the English major was really a strategy, because I already set eyes on the Meteorology program. I worked kinda hard - I guess that one semester was 75% of the 500 hours worth of studying. I think I wound up with 3.0 or something mediocre. My literature professor used to say, "I don't know if that observation is incredibly stupid, or incredibly brilliant", to which the class with nervously twitch a laughter. And I uneasily felt built up inside. Eh, I didn't care - I wasn't long for English, no way, no how.

Getting C's, B's and A's in advanced mathematics was actually what saved my arse; otherwise, my GPA would have been just too unrecoverable.

*********************************Below this line ends the most remarkable OT post in the history of internet bloggary *****************************************************************

This is a sad waste for this thread, and the hopefuls that we may get one last hurrah to wrap this winter up. Well, winter as a distinction is over in Meteorology. That aside, what's happening here is that yes there is a nice +1SD PNA spike over the next 3-5 days, and the longer term NAO is sliding negative, the pattern et al just is not going to avail of it. The deterministic ECM and GFS solutions have just never really "looked" +PNA over the last 3 days of runs since this post was unfortunately leveled. We should have seen something by now.

In fact, if anything, the runs really are hell-bent at conserving a more -PNA vibe across N/A. I suppose since the PNA is such a massive spatial domain, it can be positive or negative overall, while N/A its self may or may not reflect that. Not is one of those times where - probably - it will not.

In May of 2002 it snowed twice that month because of an obnoxiously descended -NAO. Just remember that.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Almost finished with my first novel attempt. I have picked at it here and there, sometimes very motivated, other times only a little over the last 3 years. I have over 100 pages in MS Word, which is probably 250 in standard publishing typeset (not that size matters). It has nothing to do with the weather, though. It's a Sci-Fi effort about artificial intelligence. One of my closer friends is asking me the obvious, why not write a novel about the weather? Not really motivated to do so, ironically. Most of the fantastic story lines, from the allegory to the obvious, are all cliche at this point. Climate disasters, asteroid impacts, religiously preordained, 2012...etc, heavily used and well, boring because of that. Yes, yes, Greenland rattles off its back like a dog out of pond and all it's ice tumbles into the sea in a single calamity, setting off a global tsunamis.

People have been throwing accolades at me for writing for years, telling me often how they thought I should try and do something finished, and expose a "talent" as it were. No vote of confidence.

Mostly I just ignored them (the accolades, not the people) because at the end of the day I have deep rooted ego troubles, as well as fears of a delusion that hides the fact that I am really Forest Gump. My grades in college were a joke - of course, I do not think I studied more than 500 hours across those 5 years there, where switched from Music, to English ... ultimately to Meteorology. I suppose it stands to reason. I never connected the work to the fascination of weather. Perhaps that was a maturity thing - even at 26 years of age, while many of my friends were already getting married, and buying houses with their nearing 6-digit salaries because they timely graduated by 22 and had 4 years of professionalism under their belts, I was still just a Junior in college with monthly appointments with the Dean of Admissions where I would plead not him/her not to kick me out of college and into shimmering accomplished echelon of gas station attendance. My ability for run-on sentences kept me in the game. Seriously, it never hit home. I think a better part of it was simply that I love the romanticism and the experience, and didn't care for the tedium of mathematics and measurement. I probably would have made a much better student now.

The Music thing was speed bump narcissism era of personal growth I needed to get over. I sat at the piano for the first time when I was 19 years of age, and 3 weeks later I had the first movement of Beethoven's "Moonlight Sonata" and some strange ability to improve random chords together along with some native prescience regarding rhythm. Folks would tell me, "you gotta do something with that talent". It's fun and nice to play, but I never put any effort in and did not want to, and do not really care. Not sure why. So I auditioned for the Music Conservatory up and UML's South Campus, and was given probationary entrance into the program. I passed everything at the audition except the reading. I could not read from the Grand Staff and associate it to the keyboard. That takes years of practice for most, and my seemingly "savantism" with the music its self did not come with that specific skill - at all really. Still, they recognized the other and gave me a chance, saying that the conditions of my probation were that I had to, in one semester, learn the sight-reading association to the keyboard.

Then I met Christine. She was a 29 year-old Italian RIS art graduate and dancer, engaged to a 55 year-old PHD psychology recipient, who inherited millions when the last of his aristocratic Long Island progenitors passed away. This clown was a piece of work. This smack during the grunge era of the early to mid 1990's and he was beyond the pail as far as posers go... I think the used to even sell the look at the local Banana Republics of the day. Christine's body was clearly sculpted out of God's clay. She was, when I met her, in a period of deeper resent for this turkey because he was despondent, seemingly disconnected and overtly aloof with regard to her, and her wants and dreams. She was a starving artist engaged to him, and he was blissfully without responsibility for that arrangement? Yeah, I guess that's a rub. I don't know. But here I came with my 5-hour long erections and big heart, and open ears, and so on the tawdry affair could not have been better composed by the finest morally challenged authors of the Romance genre. And I lived it.

Shortly after he chased me down the streets of Brooklin with a camera and a gun, yelling how he was going to photograph me so that when these bullets missed he could hunt me down and shoot me, and the house of cards that had temporarily removed me from the collegiate process had come crumbling down, reality rose like a sunrise over a dark, brokenhearted landscape. Even if one's reality offers less comfort ... well, I don't know, I guess that person is truly f c ed, but at least I had the reality of trying school again. So the English major was really a strategy, because I already set eyes on the Meteorology program. I worked kinda hard - I guess that one semester was 75% of the 500 hours worth of studying. I think I wound up with 3.0 or something mediocre. My literature professor used to say, "I don't know if that observation is incredibly stupid, or incredibly brilliant", to which the class with nervously twitch a laughter. And I uneasily felt built up inside. Eh, I didn't care - I wasn't long for English, no way, no how.

Getting C's, B's and A's in advanced mathematics was actually what saved my arse; otherwise, my GPA would have been just too unrecoverable.

******************************************Below this line ends the most remarkable OT post in the history of internet bloggary *****************************************************************

This is a sad waste for this thread, and the hopefuls that we may get one last hurrah to wrap this winter up. Well, winter as a distinction is over in Meteorology. That aside, what's happening here is that yes there is a nice +1SD PNA spike over the next 3-5 days, and the longer term NAO is sliding negative, the pattern et al just is not going to avail of it. The deterministic ECM and GFS solutions have just never really "looked" +PNA over the last 3 days of runs since this post was unfortunately leveled. We should have seen something by now.

In fact, if anything, the runs really are hell-bent at conserving a more -PNA vibe across N/A. I suppose since the PNA is such a massive spatial domain, it can be positive or negative overall, while N/A its self may or may not reflect that. Not is one of those times where - probably - it will not.

In May of 2002 it snowed twice that month because of an obnoxiously descended -NAO. Just remember that.

:o

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Almost finished with my first novel attempt. I have picked at it here and there, sometimes very motivated, other times only a little over the last 3 years. I have over 100 pages in MS Word, which is probably 250 in standard publishing typeset (not that size matters). It has nothing to do with the weather, though. It's a Sci-Fi effort about artificial intelligence. One of my closer friends is asking me the obvious, why not write a novel about the weather? Not really motivated to do so, ironically. Most of the fantastic story lines, from the allegory to the obvious, are all cliche at this point. Climate disasters, asteroid impacts, religiously preordained, 2012...etc, heavily used and well, boring because of that. Yes, yes, Greenland rattles off its back like a dog out of pond and all it's ice tumbles into the sea in a single calamity, setting off a global tsunamis.

People have been throwing accolades at me for writing for years, telling me often how they thought I should try and do something finished, and expose a "talent" as it were. No vote of confidence.

Mostly I just ignored them (the accolades, not the people) because at the end of the day I have deep rooted ego troubles, as well as fears of a delusion that hides the fact that I am really Forest Gump. My grades in college were a joke - of course, I do not think I studied more than 500 hours across those 5 years there, where switched from Music, to English ... ultimately to Meteorology. I suppose it stands to reason. I never connected the work to the fascination of weather. Perhaps that was a maturity thing - even at 26 years of age, while many of my friends were already getting married, and buying houses with their nearing 6-digit salaries because they timely graduated by 22 and had 4 years of professionalism under their belts, I was still just a Junior in college with monthly appointments with the Dean of Admissions where I would plead not him/her not to kick me out of college and into shimmering accomplished echelon of gas station attendance. My ability for run-on sentences kept me in the game. Seriously, it never hit home. I think a better part of it was simply that I love the romanticism and the experience, and didn't care for the tedium of mathematics and measurement. I probably would have made a much better student now.

The Music thing was speed bump narcissism era of personal growth I needed to get over. I sat at the piano for the first time when I was 19 years of age, and 3 weeks later I had the first movement of Beethoven's "Moonlight Sonata" and some strange ability to improve random chords together along with some native prescience regarding rhythm. Folks would tell me, "you gotta do something with that talent". It's fun and nice to play, but I never put any effort in and did not want to, and do not really care. Not sure why. So I auditioned for the Music Conservatory up and UML's South Campus, and was given probationary entrance into the program. I passed everything at the audition except the reading. I could not read from the Grand Staff and associate it to the keyboard. That takes years of practice for most, and my seemingly "savantism" with the music its self did not come with that specific skill - at all really. Still, they recognized the other and gave me a chance, saying that the conditions of my probation were that I had to, in one semester, learn the sight-reading association to the keyboard.

Then I met Christine. She was a 29 year-old Italian RIS art graduate and dancer, engaged to a 55 year-old PHD psychology recipient, who inherited millions when the last of his aristocratic Long Island progenitors passed away. This clown was a piece of work. This smack during the grunge era of the early to mid 1990's and he was beyond the pail as far as posers go... I think the used to even sell the look at the local Banana Republics of the day. Christine's body was clearly sculpted out of God's clay. She was, when I met her, in a period of deeper resent for this turkey because he was despondent, seemingly disconnected and overtly aloof with regard to her, and her wants and dreams. She was a starving artist engaged to him, and he was blissfully without responsibility for that arrangement? Yeah, I guess that's a rub. I don't know. But here I came with my 5-hour long erections and big heart, and open ears, and so on the tawdry affair could not have been better composed by the finest morally challenged authors of the Romance genre. And I lived it.

Shortly after he chased me down the streets of Brooklin with a camera and a gun, yelling how he was going to photograph me so that when these bullets missed he could hunt me down and shoot me, and the house of cards that had temporarily removed me from the collegiate process had come crumbling down, reality rose like a sunrise over a dark, brokenhearted landscape. Even if one's reality offers less comfort ... well, I don't know, I guess that person is truly f c ed, but at least I had the reality of trying school again. So the English major was really a strategy, because I already set eyes on the Meteorology program. I worked kinda hard - I guess that one semester was 75% of the 500 hours worth of studying. I think I wound up with 3.0 or something mediocre. My literature professor used to say, "I don't know if that observation is incredibly stupid, or incredibly brilliant", to which the class with nervously twitch a laughter. And I uneasily felt built up inside. Eh, I didn't care - I wasn't long for English, no way, no how.

Getting C's, B's and A's in advanced mathematics was actually what saved my arse; otherwise, my GPA would have been just too unrecoverable.

******************************************Below this line ends the most remarkable OT post in the history of internet bloggary *****************************************************************

This is a sad waste for this thread, and the hopefuls that we may get one last hurrah to wrap this winter up. Well, winter as a distinction is over in Meteorology. That aside, what's happening here is that yes there is a nice +1SD PNA spike over the next 3-5 days, and the longer term NAO is sliding negative, the pattern et al just is not going to avail of it. The deterministic ECM and GFS solutions have just never really "looked" +PNA over the last 3 days of runs since this post was unfortunately leveled. We should have seen something by now.

In fact, if anything, the runs really are hell-bent at conserving a more -PNA vibe across N/A. I suppose since the PNA is such a massive spatial domain, it can be positive or negative overall, while N/A its self may or may not reflect that. Not is one of those times where - probably - it will not.

In May of 2002 it snowed twice that month because of an obnoxiously descended -NAO. Just remember that.

I won't forget May 2002..that was nuts. There are some signs that the NAO will turn negative on the ensembles after d10 with a more wintry appeal, but models have been too bullish with the winter appeal..only to have the PNA seemingly kill it. We'll see..I'll still have my eye out for something interesting, but where have those lovely 4-month winters gone? Sure '95-'96 torched, but we had winter from late November..until April. I know we had a couple of torches..but that was one hell of a stretch. To me, I love the excitement of tracking the storm and eventual build up. Maybe it's the meteorologist in me, but that's what gets the juices flowing. We had a high adrenaline 8 weeks here, but it's about to crash like someone who just drank 5 redbulls.

BTW I never knew you were big into music. That's pretty cool.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Considering the pre-season La Nina endless torch catastrophe winter outlooks.... this winter has been much more than we could have hoped for.

I was pissed to be too far northwest earlier on, but then rewarded with two excellent snowstorms.

But yeah I wouldn't be truly satisfied unless there was snow cover from about late Nov. to early April. Maybe I retire to somewhere like that. LOL

I won't forget May 2002..that was nuts. There are some signs that the NAO will turn negative on the ensembles after d10 with a more wintry appeal, but models have been too bullish with the winter appeal..only to have the PNA seemingly kill it. We'll see..I'll still have my eye out for something interesting, but where have those lovely 4-month winters gone? Sure '95-'96 torched, but we had winter from late November..until April. I know we had a couple of torches..but that was one hell of a stretch. To me, I love the excitement of tracking the storm and eventual build up. Maybe it's the meteorologist in me, but that's what gets the juices flowing. We had a high adrenaline 8 weeks here, but it's about to crash like someone who just drank 5 redbulls.

BTW I never knew you were big into music. That's pretty cool.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Considering the pre-season La Nina endless torch catastrophe winter outlooks.... this winter has been much then we could have hoped for.

I was pissed to be too far northwest earlier on, but then rewarded with two excellent snowstorms.

But yeah I wouldn't be truly satisfied unless there was snow cover from about late Nov. to early April. Maybe I retire to somewhere like that. LOL

Most definitely. Better than I could have ever hoped for and is #3 in my book. But, It's tough for me to give it a straight A or anything near #1 all time, when it lasts 8 weeks. If we grab a nice 3-6" paste snow, I'll be happy..and the winter soul will be satisfied.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

15 inches yet at my stake in the woods - pretty constant amount.. Fields less where it blew off ...from a few inches minimum to couple foot drifts.....

Yes Rick...and you are in GC more or less.

Even here in Boston, there is some patchy snow in the woods. But anything exposed is bare.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Most definitely. Better than I could have ever hoped for and is #3 in my book. But, It's tough for me to give it a straight A or anything near #1 all time, when it lasts 8 weeks. If we grab a nice 3-6" paste snow, I'll be happy..and the winter soul will be satisfied.

I agree wholheartedly. Just 1 more event that we can track and that verifies. Does not have to be huge. A final farewell "bang" to quote someone from earlier

:snowman:

This needs freshening up

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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Yes Rick...and you are in GC more or less.

Even here in Boston, there is some patchy snow in the woods. But anything exposed is bare.

The water pouring off of Wachusett last night was amazing. There were trails we went over on the lifts where the water was running under the snow. Yoiu could not see it, but you could hear it.

Of course they have all but 1 trail open today

:snowman: The woods around here are pretty snowy, but def. a March look to them

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

It just buys me a couple more weeks of snow cover and the alternative in March is useless mud... So given the futility otherwise, I continue to track snow threats into early April. Then I give it up and largely ignore wx until hurricane season. Severe stuff in this area (despite Wiz' hopes) isn't worth wasting much time on. If it hits me on the head I'll track it...

e again, etc.

Yes Rick...and you are in GC more or less.

Even here in Boston, there is some patchy snow in the woods. But anything exposed is bare.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

FWIW .. a lot more evidence of a negative NAO on the 12Z op GFS and a number of snow threats cutting under...... Nice send off for me maybe ....gotta fly to TPA on the 28th. :devilsmiley:

I think this is a better indicator.....same time as your 228 post of today's 12Z.

You know me....as big a snow hound as there is....but 6 and 1/2 decades of reality have tempered expectations.

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