CT Rain Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Going to make a new thread here specific to the next storm and flood threat. Seems like western NE should be concerned about more significant flooding. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 looks like it could be worse then yesterdays we are primed now Going to make a new thread here specific to the next storm and flood threat. Seems like western NE should be concerned about more significant flooding. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Going to make a new thread here specific to the next storm and flood threat. Seems like western NE should be concerned about more significant flooding. Any thoughts? 06z GFS was pretty bad for the berks and western CT. I haven't looked at ensemble QPF, but it's probably juicy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 06z GFS was pretty bad for the berks and western CT. I haven't looked at ensemble QPF, but it's probably juicy as well. can someone post the accumulated QPF maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 nam so far looks like its going to be a huge qpf producer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 nam so far looks like its going to be a huge qpf producer Yeah I think the one saving grace here may be that the big QPF stays just west. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 western ne gets flooded on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Good thread for early awareness... In route to the office this morning through the 500' elevations of Harvard Mass and there are underground brooks bursting across the roads with ice and slush now... Clearly last week's warmth partially alleviated permafrost and thus we may be compounding any storm system with seasonal run-off if today's chill and tonight doesn't refit that ground ice. Also, I put some thoughts/observations together regarding the next 2 weeks, over Jerry's turn out the lights thread if anyone is interested... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Oh no My basement has been several inches deep for two days now and that map has me in the jackpot Hopefully all the water running out of the hillsides drains off before it but I don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 man the nam is ugly for western ct, the houssie is going to be raging, not good, not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z gfs is an absolute monsoon serious serious troubles on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 was just about to post that.. 20 year flood coming 12z gfs is an absolute monsoon serious serious troubles on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 i think this time alot of major river are going to see some pretty epic flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 i think this time alot of major river are going to see some pretty epic flooding Not sure about that yet. The possibility is there for something major though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Yawnage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Yawnage i thought you loved flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 i thought you loved flooding? I've never understood the allure that some folks have towards it. I understand it can be bad, destroy lives etc..but it just doesn't do anything for me. You know me too..I am all about anything extreme with the wx..but flooding just doesn't move me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 man the nam is ugly for western ct, the houssie is going to be raging, not good, not good at all. 6z NAM was very wet for western CT as well. could cause equal, if not worse flooding than what the area saw on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 We'll probably see a lot of this (March 6, 2011 Ice flow along the Ammonoosuc River (along NH RT 112 Woodsville)) shortly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Euro keeps the heavy rain west of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Euro keeps the heavy rain west of here could see thta happening--even the Nam and GFS have the bullseye over SE NY and NE PA...but wouldnt take much of shift to be a problem...plus this one looks warmer further north after a start as snow, so could bring add'l snowmelt south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 This is going to be extremely interesting to see what transpires here, especially given the fact that we could be dealing with some serious flooding across parts of the region. While at this current time it appears that axis of the heaviest rainfall may occur just west of our region I wouldn't set that in stone just yet. Parts of CT ended up getting much more rain than thought with this past system...even inside 24-HR's most of the models kept the heavier rainfall just to the west but it ended up ticking eastward a bit. Both the NAM/GFS are indicating a very potent 60-80 kt LLJ developing and working into the area with the winds coming from the SE...this should throw a boatload of moisture into the region. You also have a powerful 60-80 kt MLJ working into the area from the south, just to the east of a pretty deep ML trough. This will yield a great deal of Gulf/Atlantic moisture into the mid levels so the atmospheric column is going to be very, very moist. With the system tracking just to our west this will throw a warm front northward and this should lift through parts of the region, definitely through all of CT and likely all of MA. This warm front will provide a good deal of isentropic lift which will set the stage for periods of heavy rainfall or even some snow or mixed precip first associated with the warm front. It does appear that this system could actually become occluded with the warm front stalling somewhere in central or northern New England...this could lead to some weak wave development along the front...something to watch as well is with the UL/ML jets streaming from south to north the cold front swinging eastward with the trough may actually stall some and slow down, meaning we could see some weak waves developing along the cold front further enhancing lift. Looks like the trough may go negatively tilted too and there does appear to be a short window where some elevated instability works in aloft...this could lead to the potential for some elevated convection or some embedded thunder which could locally enhance rainfall rates. Another thing to pay attention to is what occurs to our north, especially with the Connecticut River. Northern New England got smoked with this past storm with a great deal of snowfall, it's possible portions of this region see mostly rain from this, depending on how far northward the warm front gets and how strong the warm air advection is here. But with a great deal of snow on the ground to our north with the potential for heavy rains here and snow melt all this water is just going to run into the CT River and work downward into CT so this could further enhance any issues. This has potential to be very serious but we'll need to probably see more than 2-3'' widespread to get major issues and if we see anything over 4'' it could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 This is going to be extremely interesting to see what transpires here, especially given the fact that we could be dealing with some serious flooding across parts of the region. While at this current time it appears that axis of the heaviest rainfall may occur just west of our region I wouldn't set that in stone just yet. Parts of CT ended up getting much more rain than thought with this past system...even inside 24-HR's most of the models kept the heavier rainfall just to the west but it ended up ticking eastward a bit. Both the NAM/GFS are indicating a very potent 60-80 kt LLJ developing and working into the area with the winds coming from the SE...this should throw a boatload of moisture into the region. You also have a powerful 60-80 kt MLJ working into the area from the south, just to the east of a pretty deep ML trough. This will yield a great deal of Gulf/Atlantic moisture into the mid levels so the atmospheric column is going to be very, very moist. With the system tracking just to our west this will throw a warm front northward and this should lift through parts of the region, definitely through all of CT and likely all of MA. This warm front will provide a good deal of isentropic lift which will set the stage for periods of heavy rainfall or even some snow or mixed precip first associated with the warm front. It does appear that this system could actually become occluded with the warm front stalling somewhere in central or northern New England...this could lead to some weak wave development along the front...something to watch as well is with the UL/ML jets streaming from south to north the cold front swinging eastward with the trough may actually stall some and slow down, meaning we could see some weak waves developing along the cold front further enhancing lift. Looks like the trough may go negatively tilted too and there does appear to be a short window where some elevated instability works in aloft...this could lead to the potential for some elevated convection or some embedded thunder which could locally enhance rainfall rates. Another thing to pay attention to is what occurs to our north, especially with the Connecticut River. Northern New England got smoked with this past storm with a great deal of snowfall, it's possible portions of this region see mostly rain from this, depending on how far northward the warm front gets and how strong the warm air advection is here. But with a great deal of snow on the ground to our north with the potential for heavy rains here and snow melt all this water is just going to run into the CT River and work downward into CT so this could further enhance any issues. This has potential to be very serious but we'll need to probably see more than 2-3'' widespread to get major issues and if we see anything over 4'' it could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 When does CTHEAT come back? Academy award winning ****e last summer!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 When does CTHEAT come back? Academy award winning ****e last summer!! LOL....not until I'm sure there's no more snow on the way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Looks like perhaps 1-2'' of front end snow here, then meh rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 LOL....not until I'm sure there's no more snow on the way.. I'm about ready to give up on any appreciable snow (6"+) for my area and your area. Another terrible March for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 LOL....not until I'm sure there's no more snow on the way.. You should be more concerned with the melting of the snowbanks in your driveway into your basement this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 18z NAM has one hell of a bullseye over N NJ/SE N/W CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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