Signs of Spring

[pazzo83]

Every morning I run along the East River through East River Park, and I've noticed a lot more green the past week or so. Flowers are starting to come up, and some leafy plants are starting to sprout out of the ground. I doubt that Manhattan itself sees more than one or two nights below freezing going forward. And even if it was 29 this morning at Central Park, I doubt it dipped below freezing in many areas of the island south of 34th St.

[tornadojay]

the fact that I can actually see my lawn and almost no traces of snow anymore is an encouaging sign that spring is on the way soon.. thank goodness. I need warmth.

[pazzo83]

the fact that I can actually see my lawn and almost no traces of snow anymore is an encouaging sign that spring is on the way soon.. thank goodness. I need warmth.

I hear ya. The snow has been fun no doubt, but in the last two winters I've seen 150" of snow. I'm burnt out.

[earthlight]

We have some spring flowers coming up here. Also, the sunset and dusk are much, much later. The sun feels warmer in general.

By this Sunday when we set the clocks ahead, things will really be in motion.

[tim]

...the declination of the sun is increasing rapidly now..the suns position

at noon time is equivelent to early october...we gain 2 minutes per day..some days

its 3 minutes per day..ahh.. the anticipation of spring..almost as exciting as the anticipation

of a snowstorm!!

[RutgersWx92]

I saw some flowers starting to come up on campus yesterday.

[A-L-E-X]

We have some spring flowers coming up here. Also, the sunset and dusk are much, much later. The sun feels warmer in general.

By this Sunday when we set the clocks ahead, things will really be in motion.

Time to get ready for baseball season eh

[Jersey Devil]

In the last two weeks we have had 2 floods, the crocus have come up, a 75 degree day, and now snow. Sure sounds like spring to me! OH! and DQ opened again!

[nzucker]

In the last two weeks we have had 2 floods, the crocus have come up, a 75 degree day, and now snow. Sure sounds like spring to me! OH! and DQ opened again!

Yup, definitely spring

[earthlight]

Once the blocking retogrades west and then moves east the pattern is bound to break down...we will probably see legit spring weather in two weeks or maybe a bit less.

[pazzo83]

Once the blocking retogrades west and then moves east the pattern is bound to break down...we will probably see legit spring weather in two weeks or maybe a bit less.

SOLID.

Went for a run in central park yesterday, full blown spring here in the city. Flowers everywhere, trees blooming. Hopefully the cold late this week won't do much damage (I doubt the city gets much below freezing if at all).

[nzucker]

.

I doubt the city gets much below freezing if at all

Lol, what a joke, 850s are like -10 to -12C with a 1032mb high and you think NYC won't get below freezing at all? Hell if we get this storm Thursday like the DGEX shows, we might not be breaking freezing the next day for a high, at least not more than upper 30s.

[earthlight]

Lol, what a joke, 850s are like -10 to -12C with a 1032mb high and you think NYC won't get below freezing at all? Hell if we get this storm Thursday like the DGEX shows, we might not be breaking freezing the next day for a high, at least not more than upper 30s.

They will definitely get below freezing, but you can still have highs near 40 with good mixing and those 850 temperatures. For instance, the SREF at 09z shows -10 850 temps in NYC the end of the week..and highs near or a hair above 40, lows in the 20's.

[pazzo83]

Lol, what a joke, 850s are like -10 to -12C with a 1032mb high and you think NYC won't get below freezing at all? Hell if we get this storm Thursday like the DGEX shows, we might not be breaking freezing the next day for a high, at least not more than upper 30s.

You ever lived in Manhattan? It doesn't exactly cool off at night. We've had 850s in the -20s range and the low has been upper teens to 20. Plus the water temps all around the island are now 40-45 deg. You basically have to have a perfect north wind, but not too much, to see the temp really bottom out. We haven't gotten below 32 here since March 8. It hasn't been below 20 since Feb 22 (16 F).

The city will probably crack 32 late this week one night, but probably only for a couple hours.

[earthlight]

You ever lived in Manhattan? It doesn't exactly cool off at night.

I think he's also speaking for his location a bit, here...he can really cool off and get very cold in those conditions. Even during the day, the city will probably get 10 degrees warmer than him in March if the sun is out.

[pazzo83]

They will definitely get below freezing, but you can still have highs near 40 with good mixing and those 850 temperatures. For instance, the SREF at 09z shows -10 850 temps in NYC the end of the week..and highs near or a hair above 40, lows in the 20's.

If we have a high in the low 40s I could see a low of 30-32 one or two nights. The UHI here is completely insane. The PWS by me along the east river hasn't gotten below freezing since that one bitter day in early March where the high was 33 (the PWS got down to 22, while the park was 20).

Where I live is often 2-3 deg warmer than the park.

[nzucker]

I think he's also speaking for his location a bit, here...he can really cool off and get very cold in those conditions. Even during the day, the city will probably get 10 degrees warmer than him in March if the sun is out.

Yeah, we'll probably see some lower 20s in Westchester, maybe even teens to my north. If we can get into heavy snows during the overrunning event and pick up a warning-criteria snowfall, then we'd have some snowpack to radiate on when the clearing occurs. The snow could even stay on the ground for several days with highs in the 30s and generally cloudy weather due to the stormy pattern below the high-latitude blocking. I personally don't radiate that well on a huge hill, but I've held off planting cold weather crops like lettuce, which I was originally going to sow in late March, due to the fact we are in such a severely below normal pattern with snow expected.

If we have a high in the low 40s I could see a low of 30-32 one or two nights. The UHI here is completely insane. The PWS by me along the east river hasn't gotten below freezing since that one bitter day in early March where the high was 33 (the PWS got down to 22, while the park was 20).

Where I live is often 2-3 deg warmer than the park.

I agree the heat island is insane but with a clear night and potential snow cover Thursday, Manhattan could fall into the 20s. Friday night also looks cold on the 0z GFS with 850s around -12C, definitely low enough for Central Park to get significantly below freezing for quite a few hours. We should see an additional cold shot behind the weekend storm with more Canadian air racing in from the block.

Here is Friday:

[NEXtreme]

These are certainly signs of spring. There is no better sign then seeing snow on the first full day of spring.

[pazzo83]

Yeah, we'll probably see some lower 20s in Westchester, maybe even teens to my north. If we can get into heavy snows during the overrunning event and pick up a warning-criteria snowfall, then we'd have some snowpack to radiate on when the clearing occurs. The snow could even stay on the ground for several days with highs in the 30s and generally cloudy weather due to the stormy pattern below the high-latitude blocking. I personally don't radiate that well on a huge hill, but I've held off planting cold weather crops like lettuce, which I was originally going to sow in late March, due to the fact we are in such a severely below normal pattern with snow expected.

I agree the heat island is insane but with a clear night and potential snow cover Thursday, Manhattan could fall into the 20s. Friday night also looks cold on the 0z GFS with 850s around -12C, definitely low enough for Central Park to get significantly below freezing for quite a few hours. We should see an additional cold shot behind the weekend storm with more Canadian air racing in from the block.

Here is Friday:

I guess it will depend on how warm it gets during the day. If it gets above 45, it will be tough regardless of the 850s. Earlier in March we've had a 45/34 (Mar 9), 45/37 (Mar 14), and 47/34 (Mar 15), all with a pretty good north wind at night to cool us down. On those same days, White Plains, NY had 39/30 (Mar 9), 42/30 (Mar 14), and 43/28 (Mar 15).

Even more representative of the UHI, here are the two PWS near me for the same days:

Midtown East (10010)

Mar 9 - 47/35

Mar 14 - 49/40

Mar 15 - 49/37

Hunter College - Upper East Side

Mar 9 - 49/38

Mar 14 - 45/39

Mar 15 - 47/38

[nzucker]

I guess it will depend on how warm it gets during the day. If it gets above 45, it will be tough regardless of the 850s. Earlier in March we've had a 45/34 (Mar 9), 45/37 (Mar 14), and 47/34 (Mar 15), all with a pretty good north wind at night to cool us down. On those same days, White Plains, NY had 39/30 (Mar 9), 42/30 (Mar 14), and 43/28 (Mar 15).

850s weren't nearly as cold any of those nights. We're getting down to like -12C which we haven't seen this March.

Also, there might be snow on the ground in NYC for Thursday and Friday nights.

[pazzo83]

850s weren't nearly as cold any of those nights. We're getting down to like -12C which we haven't seen this March.

Also, there might be snow on the ground in NYC for Thursday and Friday nights.

We saw 850s way lower than that earlier in the month when it got down to 20 F in the city. Either way, I don't think there will be snow on the ground actually in Manhattan, at least on Friday, as highs are supposed to be in the 40s. The sun is getting pretty strong now.

[ag3]

We saw 850s way lower than that earlier in the month when it got down to 20 F in the city. Either way, I don't think there will be snow on the ground actually in Manhattan, at least on Friday, as highs are supposed to be in the 40s. The sun is getting pretty strong now.

If it snows, Central Park will be a good spot for a snowpack. Especially very early Friday morning. With that snowpack, low 20's are doable for Friday as the euro is hinting.

[nzucker]

We saw 850s way lower than that earlier in the month when it got down to 20 F in the city. Either way, I don't think there will be snow on the ground actually in Manhattan, at least on Friday, as highs are supposed to be in the 40s. The sun is getting pretty strong now.

I think Friday is going to be colder than expected with some lingering CAA advection clouds and 850s plunging to -12C on gusty NW winds. NWS has a high of 46F here....I'm thinking they might want to change that to 36F

In any case, your original statement is almost certainly going to be incorrect: Central Park is going to get below freezing for a significant amount of time and possibly by a significant margin.

[pazzo83]

I think Friday is going to be colder than expected with some lingering CAA advection clouds and 850s plunging to -12C on gusty NW winds. NWS has a high of 46F here....I'm thinking they might want to change that to 36F

In any case, your original statement is almost certainly going to be incorrect: Central Park is going to get below freezing for a significant amount of time and possibly by a significant margin.

I didn't say they WOULDN'T get below freezing, but I doubt it is for a significant amount of time. Again, during the past 15 years, it has only gotten below 30 four times in the three days in question (25-27). It only got below 25 once, (24 on Mar 27, 2001). On that day, it dropped below 32 by midnight of the 27th, and bottomed out at 6am at 24, and was back to 32 by 11am that day. It had also just snowed. Sure it's possible for the park to stay below freezing for 11 hours, but it sure isn't likely. The other times it dipped into the 20s, it didn't stay below freezing for more than 7 hours. Again, this is FOUR times of a possible 45. (1996-2010)

It definitely won't get below freezing by a significant margin (< 20 F). Temps below 20 in this time frame haven't happened in nearly 90 years.

[nzucker]

I didn't say they WOULDN'T get below freezing, but I doubt it is for a significant amount of time. Again, during the past 15 years, it has only gotten below 30 four times in the three days in question (25-27). It only got below 25 once, (24 on Mar 27, 2001). On that day, it dropped below 32 by midnight of the 27th, and bottomed out at 6am at 24, and was back to 32 by 11am that day. It had also just snowed. Sure it's possible for the park to stay below freezing for 11 hours, but it sure isn't likely. The other times it dipped into the 20s, it didn't stay below freezing for more than 7 hours. Again, this is FOUR times of a possible 45. (1996-2010)

It definitely won't get below freezing by a significant margin (< 20 F). Temps below 20 in this time frame haven't happened in nearly 90 years.

This is sort of a useless analysis because we don't know if any of those years had this double-blocking pattern. So you're comparing apples to oranges...

I agree they won't get below 20, mid 20s seems reasonable Friday and Saturday morning. There could be one more very cold morning if that coastal around 3/30 winds up and passes to the east. KNYC is definitely going to see a hard freeze, however, look at this map:

[pazzo83]

This is sort of a useless analysis because we don't know if any of those years had this double-blocking pattern. So you're comparing apples to oranges...

I agree they won't get below 20, mid 20s seems reasonable Friday and Saturday morning. There could be one more very cold morning if that coastal around 3/30 winds up and passes to the east. KNYC is definitely going to see a hard freeze, however, look at this map:

Well I guess we will see. I agree below freezing seems almost a certainty at this point. Just how low is the question. I'll be in TX so it won't bother me, but I am worried about what will happen to everything that has bloomed super early. We have flowers up, buds on almost all trees, and some trees with leaves now. Completely insane for March 22.

I don't know what the pattern was in 2001 around this time, but it was 30s/20s for a couple days at almost the exact same time, probably a similar pattern then.

[nzucker]

Well I guess we will see. I agree below freezing seems almost a certainty at this point. Just how low is the question. I'll be in TX so it won't bother me, but I am worried about what will happen to everything that has bloomed super early. We have flowers up, buds on almost all trees, and some trees with leaves now. Completely insane for March 22.

I don't know what the pattern was in 2001 around this time, but it was 30s/20s for a couple days at almost the exact same time, probably a similar pattern then.

Central Park has officially had a freeze on March 25th; it was 32/15 there as of 1:51am. NW winds throughout the day have helped bring the cold into the UHI area. Should drop into the lower 20s in most of the suburbs tonight and probably upper 20s in Central Park.