CNYWxGuy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 0z Euro slightly west with 2ndary SLP track. Instead of over C NY, the track runs right thru Jamestown / Buffalo / Wrn Lake Ontario and into Southern Ontario. Correspondingly... the deformation axis shifted to Eastern OH and far Western PA and produced similar QPF totals as 12z run with .50-1.00" worth of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Will we be calling it the 2011 Ides of March Storm .............Et tu Brute ??? Jeff what did you get on this past Sunday's-Monday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Jeff what did you get on this past Sunday's-Monday's storm? 15.2"...............But like you said with your 1 measurement, I cant account for the 4 or 5 hours of PL in the middle of the night and subsequent compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I want to ski in powder this weknd (( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Go to Utah It is spring... in the Northeast. If we're lucky we get cement! From the dry slot yesterday it looks like at least the NWS is looking for a wetter solution (3-4" liquid in the "eastern Adirondacks" (where ever that is!). Will be another fun one to watch I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Go to Utah It is spring... in the Northeast. If we're lucky we get cement! From the dry slot yesterday it looks like at least the NWS is looking for a wetter solution (3-4" liquid in the "eastern Adirondacks" (where ever that is!). Will be another fun one to watch I think. I am in 2 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The precip seems to be late arriving, it not having reached Toronto yet. The temperature is steadily rising here. I'm starting to think that we may reach freezing before the precip arrives and that the temperatures will be too mild for any real accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The precip seems to be late arriving, it not having reached Toronto yet. The temperature is steadily rising here. I'm starting to think that we may reach freezing before the precip arrives and that the temperatures will be too mild for any real accumulation. temperature continues to rise steadily, about a degree celcius an hour. No way Ottawa sees 6-8" out of this. Already up to -4.4C. Precip still hasn't arrived in Toronto and it's approaching 40F there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The precip seems to be late arriving, it not having reached Toronto yet. The temperature is steadily rising here. I'm starting to think that we may reach freezing before the precip arrives and that the temperatures will be too mild for any real accumulation. there will be plenty of accumulation. unfortunately, there will be plenty of rain after that. hard for me to get excited because of that, as our snowpack is going to look a lot more beaten down than it does this morning unfortunately. i think environemnt canada's numbers this morning are reasonable......the range limits are 5-10 / 13-25cm in the ottawa valley. and maybe 4-8 / 10-20cm in the montreal area.....its going to really pour snow overnight and early tomorrow. then a lot of rain by tomorrow around noon sometime. its possible that we will have a heavy rainfall warning by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 there will be plenty of accumulation. unfortunately, there will be plenty of rain after that. hard for me to get excited because of that, as our snowpack is going to look a lot more beaten down than it does this morning unfortunately. i think environemnt canada's numbers this morning are reasonable......the range limits are 5-10 / 13-25cm in the ottawa valley. and maybe 4-8 / 10-20cm in the montreal area.....its going to really pour snow overnight and early tomorrow. then a lot of rain by tomorrow around noon sometime. its possible that we will have a heavy rainfall warning by tomorrow. I really hope you're right about the snow part. When do you think the precip will arrive? As for the rain...I must admit that I'm starting to get spring fever, although I hate cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I really hope you're right about the snow part. When do you think the precip will arrive? As for the rain...I must admit that I'm starting to get spring fever, although I hate cold rain. it should arrive in ottawa between 4 and 8 pm. montreal a few hours later. i cant say ive looked too closely at the models and the nowcast obs......last weekends storm did a real number on me but a very quick look shows sig differences GFS....warmer and less precip......4-6 inches NAM....colder and more precip.....up to 12 inches in the ottawa valley and 8 in montreal area. euro...colder but less precip......6 inches RGEM.....between NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 it should arrive in ottawa between 4 and 8 pm. montreal a few hours later. i cant say ive looked too closely at the models and the nowcast obs......last weekends storm did a real number on me but a very quick look shows sig differences GFS....warmer and less precip......4-6 inches NAM....colder and more precip.....up to 12 inches in the ottawa valley and 8 in montreal area. euro...colder but less precip......6 inches RGEM.....between NAM and GFS. well, just enjoy the storm from a meteorological perspective I guess. Precip has finally started in Toronto it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Uggg. From the NWS BGM 11:03 update. THE ABV SCENARIO POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE COMBINATION COULD LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING IN SOME PARTS OF OUR SERVICE AREA. WE WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH SOON TO COVER. .HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion --WITH RIVER LEVELS RUNNING HIGH AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MORE RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON. SOME RIVER POINTS ON THE SUSQUEHANNA BASIN ARE FORECAST TO REACH MAJOR STAGE.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 It's not going to be pretty around here: ...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ANDNORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT AND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL THEN SLOW DOWN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AND TRACK NORTH...REACHING THE EASTERN LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS...THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MELT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWMELT COUPLED WITH ALREADY ELEVATED LEVELS ON OUR RIVERS IS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...MADISON...NORTHERN ONEIDA...ONONDAGA... SCHUYLER...SENECA...SOUTHERN CAYUGA...SOUTHERN ONEIDA... TOMPKINS AND YATES. * FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Would extend the flooding theme into Vermont and southern Quebec, parts of eastern Ontario. This system will produce 48-72h of melting with 1.5 to 3 inches of rain across all these regions, regardless of snowfall at the start. By late Friday there may be some severe flooding partly due to ice jams in parts of southern Quebec, especially rivers draining northwest from Eastern Townships, and possibly in the Gatineau-Laurentian region as well. Can see on the models that the warm feed comes up the Hudson valley and will continue up the Champlain and Richelieu valleys into the Montreal region, there won't be any significant damming of cold air with this, just a steady ooze northward of 8-10 C saturated air mass. Game over for snow pack except at highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Would extend the flooding theme into Vermont and southern Quebec, parts of eastern Ontario. This system will produce 48-72h of melting with 1.5 to 3 inches of rain across all these regions, regardless of snowfall at the start. By late Friday there may be some severe flooding partly due to ice jams in parts of southern Quebec, especially rivers draining northwest from Eastern Townships, and possibly in the Gatineau-Laurentian region as well. Can see on the models that the warm feed comes up the Hudson valley and will continue up the Champlain and Richelieu valleys into the Montreal region, there won't be any significant damming of cold air with this, just a steady ooze northward of 8-10 C saturated air mass. Game over for snow pack except at highest elevations. you really expect a big melt for the southern dacks into NNE? I can see CNY but I doubt the dacks to NNE loose all that much maybe 8-10 inches at most. Snowpack is 30+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I would put it this way, more snow melt will occur across these regions than is currently being discussed, of course some snow will survive in higher elevations but where I am particularly concerned would be rivers flowing north out of the Adirondacks and also in southern Quebec, partly because snow packs are more open in some of those areas and also partly because north-flowing rivers will easily get into ice-jam problems, and ice-jam flooding does not require total depletion of snow pack to become severe. In fact a waterlogged snow pack can add to the problems in some ice jam flooding. Anyway, I hope it doesn't turn out too badly, but would say watch out around Potsdam NY, Valleyfield QC, northwest VT and the Richelieu, Yamaska and St-Francois Rivers in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 accuweather now calling for only 1-3" in ottawa TWN reduced their amounts to 4" for Ottawa I sense a bust in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 accuweather now calling for only 1-3" in ottawa TWN reduced their amounts to 4" for Ottawa I sense a bust in the making. meanwhile EC upped their totals to 25-30cm i havent looked at the models or nowcast obs this afternoon, but i dont see anything alarming to suggest heavy snowfall is not on the way. i guess ill take a look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 IMBY the models seem all over the place... as do the forecasts. For what I'll call the "South central" adirondacks (Gore Mountain area) a lot of the smaller streams that were in flood due to ice jams have drained down. That will leave quite a bit of capacity for new water, be it rain or melt. The fresh 24" or so of snow on top will help a lot as well.... That said, last report I saw the Hudson was still in flood just above North Creek due to an ice jam. I hope to have some pictures later this evening to post perhaps. I can tell we're all getting worn out, too. Considering the snow will likely start in a few hours here this subforum is rather quiet. It's certainly not or "snowless" December any more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 IMBY the models seem all over the place... as do the forecasts. For what I'll call the "South central" adirondacks (Gore Mountain area) a lot of the smaller streams that were in flood due to ice jams have drained down. That will leave quite a bit of capacity for new water, be it rain or melt. The fresh 24" or so of snow on top will help a lot as well.... That said, last report I saw the Hudson was still in flood just above North Creek due to an ice jam. I hope to have some pictures later this evening to post perhaps. I can tell we're all getting worn out, too. Considering the snow will likely start in a few hours here this subforum is rather quiet. It's certainly not or "snowless" December any more! yes, i think people are just disappointed on the amount of rain that will fall.....otherwise i think the forum would be hopping. i know it certainly takes the excitement out of it for me, for the most part. i dont see anytihng on the latest models or obs to change my previous forecast. a couple things.....the period tomorrow morning and into afternoon will be the key for accums.....how long can we hold the snow until it changes to rain....it seems EC in ottawa is going to for the heavy precip to be in the form of wet snow....its possible. the quicker we changeover of course the lower end accums will verify, vs higher for later. so that changeover time will be key. it seems to be anywhere from 9AM to 3PM that i can see on the models. and theres a lot of qpf to fall in that timeframe, so this is big for accums. the other thing, most models keep the heaviest of rain west of montreal , and the euro even keeps it west of ottawa barely. there will be rain, the question is how much. the more the storm gets wound up to the west and goes negative, the less rain. but we wont see any cooler temps coming back into the region until later saturday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 yes, i think people are just disappointed on the amount of rain that will fall.....otherwise i think the forum would be hopping. i know it certainly takes the excitement out of it for me, for the most part. the other thing, most models keep the heaviest of rain west of montreal , and the euro even keeps it west of ottawa barely. there will be rain, the question is how much. the more the storm gets wound up to the west and goes negative, the less rain. but we wont see any cooler temps coming back into the region until later saturday at the earliest. At my place in the west end of Ottawa, I went from a high of -1.2 c and I'm now @ -2.6 c (66% RH)...It was about -11 c this morning and it slowly but surely crept up to about -2 c by lunchtime but since then little fluctuation. Lets hope for snow and then the precip ends...no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 the snow has started...finally, although it's just flurries right now. I really hope EC is right for a change because that forecast by accuweather is a real downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 At my place in the west end of Ottawa, I went from a high of -1.2 c and I'm now @ -2.6 c (66% RH)...It was about -11 c this morning and it slowly but surely crept up to about -2 c by lunchtime but since then little fluctuation. Lets hope for snow and then the precip ends...no rain. haha, yeah that would be nice.....but you better have your umbrella handy good to hear you are cooling off as the precip begins the snow has started...finally, although it's just flurries right now. I really hope EC is right for a change because that forecast by accuweather is a real downer. toronto has maintained snow all day with a temp of +1c......... i find that interesting and hopefully we can pull off the same tomorrow for a few hours with the heavier precip, once that warmer air gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 good to hear you are cooling off as the precip begins I'm now @ -3.1 c (RH = 88%) and the 19h15 reading from CYOW was -3.3 c and 90% RH..for once I'm close to CYOW. Light snow started here at about 18h15..seems to be pretty wind driven from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scratch Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I just noticed that they issued a snowfall warning for Montreal around 5:30 PM.. Hopefully for once EC's forecast verifies, because like most, my interest level in this storm is not too high due to the rain factor that we will have to deal with.. Hopefully the cold air can stick around a bit longer, so that we can end up with more snow.. Here's hoping! Cheers, Scratch Edit: Just as soon as I posted my message, I looked outside, and light snow is falling.. I got home around 7:30 PM, and it wasn't snowing at that time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I've picked up almost 1.5 inches.....Winds are gusting to 44 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I have been looking at the models and there seems to be a pretty defined cut off to the excessive rains with the cold front (or occluded front) Thursday night into early Friday. It gives the appearance of being convective almost and mostly from the Catskills south. Much less from the MV northward. This could be a saving grace ...though it doesn't help the Catskills etc. I took one more stellar snow shoe 1.5 miles through the woods behind our property today and the snow is deep..easily averages 18 inches ...minimum of a foot under some evergreens and some spots approaching 30 inches. So it does have some absorption abilities you really expect a big melt for the southern dacks into NNE? I can see CNY but I doubt the dacks to NNE loose all that much maybe 8-10 inches at most. Snowpack is 30+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Well I'm not worn out. LOL I'm just not all that enthralled over a couple inches of snow going to rain. I'm still totally psyched for another late season big ht if we can get into a nice negaive NAO block pattern after March 20th or so. I see signs lately on the GFS that negative NAO may finally want to get going at 300+ hours. In the early Spring negative NAO is our friend in Upstate NY - as opposed to it's primarily dry cold suppressor role in the winter. IMBY the models seem all over the place... as do the forecasts. For what I'll call the "South central" adirondacks (Gore Mountain area) a lot of the smaller streams that were in flood due to ice jams have drained down. That will leave quite a bit of capacity for new water, be it rain or melt. The fresh 24" or so of snow on top will help a lot as well.... That said, last report I saw the Hudson was still in flood just above North Creek due to an ice jam. I hope to have some pictures later this evening to post perhaps. I can tell we're all getting worn out, too. Considering the snow will likely start in a few hours here this subforum is rather quiet. It's certainly not or "snowless" December any more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Blizzard conditions in east Ottawa right now. 2.5 inches down, strong winds and just pouring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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