Couchsachraga Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It'll be a few days before things are cleaned up from the last storm... which is a good thing considering what may be on the way....1-2" of rain after a few inches of snow. KALB NWS: ------------------------- WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH THE THERMALPROFILES WHICH INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY A SNOW PTYPE. THE GEFSINDICATE MAINLY SNOW FOR ALBANY. THE BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW DECENTPCPN EFFICIENCY FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT /GENERALLY 1-4INCHES/....THOUGH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH 3-7INCHES OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. A WINTERWX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED NECESSARY LATER IN TIME.THURSDAY...SNOW TRANSITIONS TO RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE CRITICALTHICKNESS PROFILES SHOW A SNOW TO RAIN TRANSITION WITH THE SNOWHANGING ON THE LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OFTHE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HASSHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING EQUATORWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER MIDATLANTIC COAST WHERE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS...AS THE PRIMARYWEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP FETCH OF LOW LEVELMOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE GULF. THE GLOBALENSEMBLES HAVE THE H850 +V-WIND /SOUTHERLIES/ ANOMALIES 2 TO 4STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISETO 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PERIODS OF RAINFALL AREPOSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE MODERATE TO HVY RAINFALL COULDLAST INTO FRIDAY...AS THE H500 TROUGH TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED ANDCAPTURES THE SECONDARY LOW. ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FORPORTIONS OF THE HSA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 At least we have a good fresh snow pack to help sponge a lot of it up. It'll be a few days before things are cleaned up from the last storm... which is a good thing considering what may be on the way....1-2" of rain after a few inches of snow. KALB NWS: ------------------------- WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH THE THERMALPROFILES WHICH INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY A SNOW PTYPE. THE GEFSINDICATE MAINLY SNOW FOR ALBANY. THE BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW DECENTPCPN EFFICIENCY FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT /GENERALLY 1-4INCHES/....THOUGH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH 3-7INCHES OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. A WINTERWX ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED NECESSARY LATER IN TIME.THURSDAY...SNOW TRANSITIONS TO RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE CRITICALTHICKNESS PROFILES SHOW A SNOW TO RAIN TRANSITION WITH THE SNOWHANGING ON THE LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OFTHE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HASSHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING EQUATORWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER MIDATLANTIC COAST WHERE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS...AS THE PRIMARYWEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP FETCH OF LOW LEVELMOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE GULF. THE GLOBALENSEMBLES HAVE THE H850 +V-WIND /SOUTHERLIES/ ANOMALIES 2 TO 4STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISETO 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PERIODS OF RAINFALL AREPOSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE MODERATE TO HVY RAINFALL COULDLAST INTO FRIDAY...AS THE H500 TROUGH TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED ANDCAPTURES THE SECONDARY LOW. ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FORPORTIONS OF THE HSA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 certainly looks to be another interesting storm up here, and once again likely messy accumulating snow is a good bet wednesday evening into thrusday, likely several inches/cm (>3 inches) ....the initial snow part seems well agreed upon, just a matter of ironing out amounts. then over to mixed pcpn likely......as the trough goes negative, the primary will die and the second part of the storm will depend on the timing of the transfer to the secondary and the exact location of the trough when it goes negative...... marginal air will be filtering back in and potentially changing places to the west of the trough axis back over to a wet snow.......compared to the last storm though, the cold air on the backside is nowhere near as potent.....so this is looking like a typical springish scenario. at this time for us, its either rain or an accumulating wet snow. all the models have entirely different solutions on how to handle this complex setup for later thursday through early saturday period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 We can see our next storm getting started. Out ahead of it there are a few thunderstorms breaking out. We could even see a couple of tornadoes in Arkansas tonight. It does have very good Jet support . That will stream a lot of southern moisture into the Northeast. The GFS shows the trough getting so energized that this becomes a cut-off low. If this happens flooding will become a huge issue....I'm not sold on this happening but it is a possibility. right now, it looks like we will see a little SN/RA tomorrow maybe a few inches ahead of the main event Thursday / Friday which looks to start off as a little snow, before changing over to mostly rain with a big dry-slot thrown in for good measure. before becoming a Mix then most likely it drops a little SN on the backside. The storm looks to get a reinforcing shot of cold air for a few days. Then the flow looks to become more zonal which would keep most of the cold air in Canada and bring several quick moving storms through.....Looking out long term, the pattern looks to stay active well into April. So we could see a cooler spring that is much more stormy than last Spring. Things are shaping up as such that it looks like this spring will be a very active severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 the euro seems to deliver frontside snow up here as well as portions of upstate, and then backside snow to WNY. all the models have trended towards a stronger and earlier secondary, except the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 all the models have trended towards a stronger and earlier secondary, except the GFS. I like the sounds of that...as long as it doesn't do it too soon (or too west)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 NAM probably wrong but very interesting for the Dacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I like the sounds of that...as long as it doesn't do it too soon (or too west)... yes i agree, this is the main concern. it looks like the frontside snow between wednesday evening and thursday morning/early afteroon could be on the order of 4-8 inches / 10-20cm for the ottawa-montreal corridor. after that, a change to rain is likely unless the trough postiion moves further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 NAM probably wrong but very interesting for the Dacks ? 1-3 inches of snow followed by an inch or more of rain, blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Definately forsee atleast some minor flood issues across C NY... be it on the rivers / streams or of the urban variety... or both, as it looks like 1.50"+ of rainfall is on the way. The deep snowpack is going to play a role... both positive and negative as far as flooding goes. Although there will undoubtedly be some runoff, the snowpack should soak up atleast a good portion of what falls from the sky. On the flip side, a lot of storm drains / ditches / culverts are packed right full after Sunday / Monday's onslaught of snow. Thus, there is liable to be a fair share of urban / street flooding... even outside of the typical poor drainage areas... especially if we get the RA+ rates that some of the models are cranking out. Just looking at the 12z Euro, there does appear to be atleast a localized snow threat with this system, both on the front and backside. Based on the Euro...looks like far W NY changes to snow early Friday Morning before a deformation band sets up thru Friday Evening. Looks like .50-1.00qpf worth of snow from the southtowns on south... with highest amounts focused over Chaut / Catt counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It looks like a mess now. I had some hopes for it, but not enough blocking in the right place, bad high position. It helps us initially, but then forces the secondary to track too far west..instead of truly cutting under. So my goal (maybe too lofty) would be 3.6" to get me to 100 inches. ? 1-3 inches of snow followed by an inch or more of rain, blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 So my goal (maybe too lofty) would be 3.6" to get me to 100 inches. You'll get there... whether it's with this storm or another. No doubt about it... Yesterday's storm sent Maine / KBGM over the magic 100" mark for 1st time since 2004-05. Now stand at 106.3 on the season and have passed Buffalo for 3rd place in the GS race. Still about a foot behind Rochester, and Ooo... I dont know... 70" behind 'Cuse? LOL. We need another 11.4" for the winter of 2010-11 to break into the Top 5 Snowiest. The fact we broke 100" is good enough for me, so we're playing with house money from here on out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It looks like a mess now. I had some hopes for it, but not enough blocking in the right place, bad high position. It helps us initially, but then forces the secondary to track too far west..instead of truly cutting under. So my goal (maybe too lofty) would be 3.6" to get me to 100 inches. I think you'll fall JUST shy on this one beware 14th-15th though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 We can see our next storm getting started. Out ahead of it there are a few thunderstorms breaking out. We could even see a couple of tornadoes in Arkansas tonight. It does have very good Jet support . That will stream a lot of southern moisture into the Northeast. The GFS shows the trough getting so energized that this becomes a cut-off low. If this happens flooding will become a huge issue....I'm not sold on this happening but it is a possibility. right now, it looks like we will see a little SN/RA tomorrow maybe a few inches ahead of the main event Thursday / Friday which looks to start off as a little snow, before changing over to mostly rain with a big dry-slot thrown in for good measure. before becoming a Mix then most likely it drops a little SN on the backside. The storm looks to get a reinforcing shot of cold air for a few days. Then the flow looks to become more zonal which would keep most of the cold air in Canada and bring several quick moving storms through.....Looking out long term, the pattern looks to stay active well into April. So we could see a cooler spring that is much more stormy than last Spring. Things are shaping up as such that it looks like this spring will be a very active severe weather season. Agree..I think the backside of this system will be better for you than the front end will. Dry slot will be huge I think. Faster onset of precip...faster change in many places to liquid...faster end of it all. Potential for cut-off to cause heavy convective type rains too. The weekend system has my curiosity peaked....could be an interesting wind system more so than a precip maker. I could also envision at least one good synoptic April snow as well as a lot of C/O lows and low-top convection events this month too. Definitely active thru April even May. If the trend of pseudo cutters or pure cutters persist late April-May I think NEUS has a very good chance for some significant severe weather event(s). Now stop smiling! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Definately forsee atleast some minor flood issues across C NY... be it on the rivers / streams or of the urban variety... or both, as it looks like 1.50"+ of rainfall is on the way. The deep snowpack is going to play a role... both positive and negative as far as flooding goes. Although there will undoubtedly be some runoff, the snowpack should soak up atleast a good portion of what falls from the sky. On the flip side, a lot of storm drains / ditches / culverts are packed right full after Sunday / Monday's onslaught of snow. Thus, there is liable to be a fair share of urban / street flooding... even outside of the typical poor drainage areas... especially if we get the RA+ rates that some of the models are cranking out. Just looking at the 12z Euro, there does appear to be atleast a localized snow threat with this system, both on the front and backside. Based on the Euro...looks like far W NY changes to snow early Friday Morning before a deformation band sets up thru Friday Evening. Looks like .50-1.00qpf worth of snow from the southtowns on south... with highest amounts focused over Chaut / Catt counties. Good, I'm on the West Seneca/OP border =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 You live in Eggertsville Devin. Stop kidding yourself... HPC 4+ inches outlook http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 You live in Eggertsville Devin. Stop kidding yourself... HPC 4+ inches outlook http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif At the girlfriends this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 KALB snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Good, I'm on the West Seneca/OP border =] You live in Eggertsville Devin. Stop kidding yourself... HPC 4+ inches outlook http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif The HPC D3 Probability of 4+ lines up very close to the 12z Euro. And actually, looking at the 12z NAM (haven't seen 18z run), it's a very close match to the Euro as far as the location of the backside deformation is concerned, and also has comparable QPF amounts by looks. The GFS doesn't appear to be near as robust with the backside deformation as the Euro / NAM. Model disagreement at the 72H juncture as far as placement / intensity of a deformation band... who'd a thunk? LOL. Anyway... I think it bears close watching as there could be an advisory-level bounty on the backside of this for some lucky party. The Euro / NAM are indicating it to be far W NY. Seeing as how far W NY happens to be the area that was just screwed on what was the biggest synoptic snowstorm of the season for many, maybe there is some justice in this wild and unpredictable phenomena called the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Agree..I think the backside of this system will be better for you than the front end will. Dry slot will be huge I think. Faster onset of precip...faster change in many places to liquid...faster end of it all. Potential for cut-off to cause heavy convective type rains too. The weekend system has my curiosity peaked....could be an interesting wind system more so than a precip maker. I could also envision at least one good synoptic April snow as well as a lot of C/O lows and low-top convection events this month too. Definitely active thru April even May. If the trend of pseudo cutters or pure cutters persist late April-May I think NEUS has a very good chance for some significant severe weather event(s). Now stop smiling! :-) i agree about the wind event.......I trying not to smile....but, it's not working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The HPC D3 Probability of 4+ lines up very close to the 12z Euro. And actually, looking at the 12z NAM (haven't seen 18z run), it's a very close match to the Euro as far as the location of the backside deformation is concerned, and also has comparable QPF amounts by looks. The GFS doesn't appear to be near as robust with the backside deformation as the Euro / NAM. Model disagreement at the 72H juncture as far as placement / intensity of a deformation band... who'd a thunk? LOL. Anyway... I think it bears close watching as there could be an advisory-level bounty on the backside of this for some lucky party. The Euro / NAM are indicating it to be far W NY. Seeing as how far W NY happens to be the area that was just screwed on what was the biggest synoptic snowstorm of the season for many, maybe there is some justice in this wild and unpredictable phenomena called the weather. Perhaps but the dry-slot will be the key and also how quickly the low lifts and the U/A feature opens up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 i agree about the wind event.......I trying not to smile....but, it's not working. It may be one HAIL of an April/early May. (Yuck-yuck) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I think you'll fall JUST shy on this one beware 14th-15th though.... Will we be calling it the 2011 Ides of March Storm .............Et tu Brute ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It may be one HAIL of an April/early May. (Yuck-yuck) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 heres the updated ALY snowfall map.. south central ADK jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 heres the updated ALY snowfall map.. south central ADK jackpot. I'll gladly take another 1/2 foot to sacrifice back to the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I would love to knw what KALB see's thats gives me a 1/2 foot of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 0z NAM continues the theme off the 12z run of parking a well-developed deformation band over far W NY Friday into early Saturday. Based on the SV maps, far W NY flips to snow by H54 / 1AM Friday, with moderate-to-heavy snow lasting much of Friday. Being it's the "long range" NAM, I would normally say toss it aside at this juncture, but this setup has support from the 12z Euro and therefore bears close watching. Will see what the other models show this Evening... Here is the NAM 24-hour QPF from the changeover time going forward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I wish Ottawa could avoid the rain all together. I'm hoping for 6" at the start though before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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