We Need A January 2000 Style Break For Early December

[bluewave]

We all know how tough the Pacific Jet can be combined with a -PNA/La Nina pattern like we have been seeing recently.

On rare occasions ,we can catch a break here in the East.During January 2000 we had such a pattern that only broke

a few days before the big storm on the 25th.The PNA had been negative all that month prior to it rising a few days

before the event.

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.n...1.current.ascii

The models are beginning to come around to the idea of the PNA rising into slightly positive territory.

The big questions coming up are will the PNA rise enough to allow the jet to dig in a manner with

the blocking in the Atlantic to create the set up necessary for at least part of the East to see a decent

shot at snow?

[JBG]

I'm not a pro-met. I take it a postive PNA is good for the trough being in the right place? And why despite the continuing Niña during summer 2000 did it stay stuck over the East giving us a lousy summer?

[bluewave]

I'm not a pro-met. I take it a postive PNA is good for the trough being in the right place? And why despite the continuing Niña during summer 2000 did it stay stuck over the East giving us a lousy summer?

Well,it's tough to get a decent shot at snow during a La Nina that is strong as this one is with the raging Pacific Jet/La Nina/-PNA combo that we are currently experiencing.

It's easier to get a decent snow with the PNA negative if you have a good STJ and -NAO like you could experience with an El Nino.

Most decent snows for NYC occur during +PNA/-NAO Patterns with ridging out west and energy diving into the Eastern Trough with a good block in place.

[usedtobe]

Well,it's tough to get a decent shot at snow during a La Nina that is strong as this one is with the raging Pacific Jet/La Nina/-PNA combo that we are currently experiencing.

It's easier to get a decent snow with the PNA negative if you have a good STJ and -NAO like you would experience with an El Nino.

Most decent snows for NYC occur during +PNA/-NAO Patterns with ridging out west and energy diving into the Eastern Trough with a good block in place.

So true. That's why it's harder to get a good nina winter than nino winter, part of it is the lack of a southern stream but the other is that during ninas, you have a -PNA pattern more than you have a PNA pattern.