metalicwx366 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Well apparently the Cmc model develops 2 areas of low pressures in the Atlantic lol at 48 hours... Then it has this at 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 They even interact (fujiwara?) a bit. Gotta love the CMC. edit: looks like all the models on fsu's page show some sort of weak hybrid reflection in the same area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Whilst its obviously not impossible to get something in this region the odds would surely be stacked against it at thi time of year, even a hybrid would be pretty unusual quite this early on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Arlene possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It looks rather frontal to me based on that sat pic. I have seen a couple in this area in early April though. An aside and an observation I have seen STC develop in this are either just before or commensurate with a significant ECUS development more than once (usualy pre-tropical season or very late or just past the end of the NAO TC season) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Now there is two areas of potential development in March lol Wind shear will be on the low side but the SST i don't know. Another Epsilon would be interesting but 0.0001% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 The GFS wants to make hurricane Arlene! 984mb or is that just a regular offcoast storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 that quite the coastal for portugal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 sweet MS paint, broseph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 here's a nice loop http://sat24.com/en/mo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Run across this on the dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 The ECMWF and Nogaps and GFS show that too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 here's a nice loop http://sat24.com/en/mo hard to see it getting named based on that. The convection is not co-located with the LL center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 hard to see it getting named based on that. The convection is not co-located with the LL center. definitely agreed about the name, but when i linked the loop yesterday it looked 100x better/more interesting. i never even would have linked it based upon today's presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 definitely agreed about the name, but when i linked the loop yesterday it looked 100x better/more interesting. i never even would have linked it based upon today's presentation. looks like convection is re-fireing tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 looks like convection is re-fireing tonight though. yeah...i hadn't looked in about 6 hours...it's going back to being mildly interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Slowly moving E. Looks like nothing more than a early season curiosity (spin) in the Eastern Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Slowly moving E. Looks like nothing more than a early season curiosity (spin) in the Eastern Atlantic. Yep, it looks like it's gonna be swept and absorbed in the next 24 hours by a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Well its now 90L, so the first invest of the season in March, nice early test run for the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 WOW its only March.There is also another invest90 in the South ATLANTIC by brazil Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 :lol: Then Bret forms next week if 90L becomes Arlene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 :lol: Then Bret forms next week if 90L becomes Arlene. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SacrydDreamz Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Cold season warm-core lows are quite interesting... and really there isn't too much physical difference between a polar low, for example, and a tropical system. For those who don't know what I'm talking about, Wikipedia is a good place to start :-) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Cold season warm-core lows are quite interesting... and really there isn't too much physical difference between a polar low, for example, and a tropical system. For those who don't know what I'm talking about, Wikipedia is a good place to start :-) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_low January 1995 was one of the more interesting cases. http://www.mindspring.com/~jbeven/intr0008.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 All the models develop some type of weak area of low pressure at the end of the runs some stronger than the otherslol in the north Atlantic ECMWF Gfs Nogaps is to far North by Britian so I guess that isn't warm core. CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 Invest 90l has been deactivated. This was subtropical or tropical yesterday with 999 mb and winds of 35knots and convection that lasted for a while warmcore and non frontal. Don't know what they were doing but know the system is inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 All the models show Xinvest90l moving back over the waters and regenerate or that might be a seperate system but the strength of it on models vary from 986-999 when it moves back over the waters in a day or two. GFS really intensifies this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 More action possible next week? but really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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