Isotherm Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 I live in Southern Queens, they're not full blown green leaves yet but they're leaves, I only saw them on less than 10 trees, the majority of the trees just have buds, I have pics. I think this was a unique set up, those 60's & 70's we got in February must've woke the trees up and by the time the buds arrived it was consistently mild and they kept going. I've never seen buds in February or leaves in March until now. Must be the heat island effect. No sign of leaves or even swelling buds in SE PA or back home in CNJ. Although it's certainly been warm, it hasn't been blowtorch. February was just +1/+1.5 above normal and March is about the same thus far, with a lot of cloudy days over the past month making it seem not as warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Must be the heat island effect. No sign of leaves or even swelling buds in SE PA or back home in CNJ. Although it's certainly been warm, it hasn't been blowtorch. February was just +1/+1.5 above normal and March is about the same thus far, with a lot of cloudy days over the past month making it seem not as warm. I only have the usual suspects popping out some buds (species dependent.) Nothing unusual around here on the other side of Queens near the Throgs Neck Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 How'd you do on April 7th 2003? Recorded 6" in Monmouth County. Hvy snow and sticking on all roads at midday with temps in the low 30s. i got about 3" but that goes to show you it can happen in the right pattern, funny how the snowiest winters had an april snowstorm..Lets hope this year delivers the magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 i got about 3" but that goes to show you it can happen in the right pattern, funny how the snowiest winters had an april snowstorm..Lets hope this year delivers the magic We've got cooler global temps on our side this year unlike last spring or the past decade for that matter, so plus there. Plenty of cold air up in Canada, but we need some semblance of blocking to amplify the trough in the East. Definitely looks cooler in the long range after March 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Looking at Ray's radar archive for the April 9th-10th 1996 event, I think this probably would've been a high-end MECS event had it occurred in DJF with much better ratios. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/1996/09-Apr-96-FortDixDopplerRadarImagery.html Snow was falling moderate to heavily for several hours with temperatures in the 32-34 degree range, very high water content snow. End result was a solid 6-10" hit from interior Monmouth southward. If temps were in the mid-upper 20s, it would've easily been a 12-16" storm, possibly some 18"+ totals considering the long duratrion of the snow. H5 looks beautiful w/ strong vort energy rounding the trough and an 850 close off east of Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 18z NAM amplifies that wave that Ggem has had for days now. Looks like NAM is setting up another rain maker for areas that don't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 18z NAM amplifies that wave that Ggem has had for days now. Looks like NAM is setting up another rain maker for areas that don't need it. Brings the wave in much too slowly, cold air has gone stale and 850s are > 0c by the time we precipitate. Pattern sucks right now so I'd expect nothing less. I think we have a better shot at our last window next week, March 20th-26th, or maybe after. NAO should be going negative by D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 I'll add that the February 1899 storm came at the end of a record low temperature streak. It's not that we haven't seen snow in early April, but that it would be extremely rare to get an April 1982 style event in NYC Metro.The heaviest snow with the April Fool's Storm in 1997 was to our NE. I remember that it was really mild before the April 1982 blizzard and that provided a contrast to how extreme a climo event that it was.That being said, we have seen snow in early April also in 2006,2003,and 1996. There was also heavy snow in April 1997 to our south-- we were in a dryslot. My favorite April snows are 1982, 1996, and 2003 -- all warning criteria here. We get accumulating snowfall in April on avg one out of three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Must be the heat island effect. No sign of leaves or even swelling buds in SE PA or back home in CNJ. Although it's certainly been warm, it hasn't been blowtorch. February was just +1/+1.5 above normal and March is about the same thus far, with a lot of cloudy days over the past month making it seem not as warm. Crocuses have been blooming here for a few days now-- I think John reported the same in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Leaves on some trees? Where do you live? Last year was the earliest I've ever seen leaves on trees, but that wasn't until the last 10 days of March. Usually the pollen shoots up big time in late march-late April, with the majority of leaf out occuring late april-mid may. 2001-02 takes the cake for latest freeze earliest blooming lol-- I had crocuses blooming in late Feb and we didnt have our first freeze until Mid or Late Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 I measured 6.7" on Staten Island...Temperatures were in the 30's three days...That is second to 1982...After the April 1982 blizzard there was extreme cold for April and another light snowfall followed the few days later...Newark got another inch... I remember waking up and seeing a little snow on the ground in April 1958...It happened again in 1959...These are the top April snowfalls in NYC... Biggest snowstorms... 10.2" 3-4th 1915 10.0" 13th 1875 9.6" 6th 1982 8.5" 1st 1924 6.5" 8-9th 1917 6.5" 5th 1944 6.4" 6-7th 1938 5.0" 9th 1907 4.2" 8th 1956 4.0" 7th 2003 That second April snowstorm in 1982 was supposed to be big but went just to our south-- what a surreal week of cold weather that was! How did you do in 1996? Looks like UHI affects the city totals because we got 5-6" in April 1996, 7-8" in April 2003.... We have had accum snow in April 1982, 83, 90, 96, 97, 2000, 2003 and 2006 here so on average one out of every three years.... most of those were 1-2" events aside from 1982, 1996, and 2003 which were all warning criteria. Average April snowfall is about an inch. The latest in that list was 1.5" on April 19-20, 1983. The past few decades snowfall in the first 10 days of April seems to be much more common than in the last 10 days of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Torch: Massive +NAO won't go away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 That second April snowstorm in 1982 was supposed to be big but went just to our south-- what a surreal week of cold weather that was! How did you do in 1996? Looks like UHI affects the city totals because we got 5-6" in April 1996, 7-8" in April 2003.... We have had accum snow in April 1982, 83, 90, 96, 97, 2000, 2003 and 2006 here so on average one out of every three years.... most of those were 1-2" events aside from 1982, 1996, and 2003 which were all warning criteria. Average April snowfall is about an inch. The latest in that list was 1.5" on April 19-20, 1983. The past few decades snowfall in the first 10 days of April seems to be much more common than in the last 10 days of March. I got less than 1" on 4/10/96 in Brooklyn...Staten Island had 4" in places...March 29th has more significant snowfalls than any date after March 22nd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Chances look good for a late march early april event at least down to I-80 but probably as far south as I-70 http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Torch: Massive +NAO won't go away... I wonder if this summer will be a mirror image of this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Looks like another .75"-1" of rain for flood areas by Tuesday night into Wednesday. GGEM nailed this event from 144 hours out. All other models had this squashed and way south up until yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Looks like about 0.75" - 1.00" basin average over north Jersey based on the latest guidance. This would be enough to possibly put the Passaic River back to major flooding as it's forecasted to still be well above flood stage by the time precip begins. Luckily, it probably will only be minor flooding for my area as the Pompton river is forecasted to be about as low as it was last Thursday as it began to rain. Hopefully this 0.75" - 1.00" at 48hrs out does not end up as 1-2" but nothing would suprise me. The flow looks too progressive at this point in my opinion for excessive rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Brutal heat and severe tstorms the first half, more seasonable temps and drier weather the last half? I guess that would be mirror image? I wonder if this summer will be a mirror image of this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 This summer looks milder than last year, above average precip and above average east coast tropical threats. Would not be suprised to see another "Floyd type" scenario given the 95-96 and 99 analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 This summer looks milder than last year, above average precip and above average east coast tropical threats. Would not be suprised to see another "Floyd type" scenario given the 95-96 and 99 analogs. milder? Last summer was like are hottest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 milder? Last summer was like are hottest on record. by milder I actually meant cooler than last summer, like mild salsa is not as hot as the hot salsa lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 by milder I actually meant cooler than last summer, like mild salsa is not as hot as the hot salsa lol Really going out on a limb there, it'd be very difficult to get a summer hotter than last year. And now with global temps significantly colder than 12 months ago, it'll be even more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Really going out on a limb there, it'd be very difficult to get a summer hotter than last year. And now with global temps significantly colder than 12 months ago, it'll be even more difficult. That would be a very tough task, but I can see a 93/94 scenario or fro 2010/2011. 94 opened hot and cooled later in the summer. Either way I dont think we are on the verge of a 2004 or 2009-like coolness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Did you guys not understand what I wrote, I said that by stating this summer would be milder, I actually meant cooler than last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Euro has .65" of rain for tomorrow night into Wednesday. Also, the high temp on Friday afternoon shows 68 degrees for NYC. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Euro was embarrasing with the last storm, Good potential here for 0.75" + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 I was in the adriondacks this past weknd, 2-4 feet on the ground with even more in higher elevations. Just a rediculous amount of snow and the snow / no snow gradient is very sharp. No snow basically till Saratoga and then it increases rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 14, 2011 Author Share Posted March 14, 2011 We have a nice -NAO coming. And here's the end result: Note the blocking in C Canada, which would presumably force colder air south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 As of 3pm, Upton raised the QPF forecast over all zones. Calling for ~ 0.75" over western zones, more NW, less SE. For interior sections such as Ramsey, the have also added Heavy Rain to the zone forecast. Not quite another redux, but this bears watching, especially since current forecasted totals are just under FFG. Some of the high res models are showing the potential for some convection which could locally enhance rainfall. Wednesday: Rain, mainly before 3pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog between 9am and 3pm. High near 50. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 New SREF's also showing a high probability of heavy rainfall in the 48-54hr time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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