A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 250 miles west of HSE? Do you mean east? How cold does it look? Nate, you want to revise your idea of no chance of another 6" storm for this snow season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Nate, you want to revise your idea of no chance of another 6" storm for this snow season? Did I ever say no chance? Yes, the 12z ECM is close...cut-off low near the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Did I ever say no chance? Yes, the 12z ECM is close...cut-off low near the East Coast. No it was more like unlikely.... or highly unlikely..... meh close enough I would LOVE to see another snowstorm just to see these warm weather whiners shut up. Are they enjoying their flooding? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 bout ****ing time. well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Euro has a coastal hours 138-156. Brushes the coast. 850's and 540 line are fine but surface temps are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 No it was more like unlikely.... or highly unlikely..... meh close enough I would LOVE to see another snowstorm just to see these warm weather whiners shut up. Are they enjoying their flooding? LOL Everything is just fine here in the city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 GGEM has snow hours 90-102. Has about 10-12mm as all snow. Here is The precip map at hour 97: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Unfortunately, Euro has nothing from hour 84-102. Only GGEM and UKIE do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Unfortunately, Euro has nothing from hour 84-102. Only GGEM and UKIE do. Those are two models you usually don't want on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Those are two models you usually don't want on your side. Yup. You can add JMA to the GGEM/UKIE camp as well. LOL. The 3 worst models vs. everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Can't wait to get my 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Can't wait to get my 4-6" Lock it up. GGEM/UKIE/JMA vs. Euro/GFS/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Euro has a coastal hours 138-156. Brushes the coast. 850's and 540 line are fine but surface temps are warm. HM is talking about our next/last major threat being between April 5-10 with a major dip in the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 HM is talking about our next/last major threat being between April 5-10 with a major dip in the NAO. extremely difficutl to get anything major around these parts in April unless you have serious cold. The NAO may be going negative but that alone surely isn't enough in April. Everything has to line up correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 extremely difficutl to get anything major around these parts in April unless you have serious cold. The NAO may be going negative but that alone surely isn't enough in April. Everything has to line up correctly. April 1982 was caused by an impressive double blocking pattern, extreme -EPO/-NAO: Impressive picture of the April 1982 event on LI, courtesy of NorthShoreWx: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 April 1982 was caused by an impressive double blocking pattern, extreme -EPO/-NAO: Impressive picture of the April 1982 event on LI, courtesy of NorthShoreWx: EXACTYL what I was talking about, it has to line up perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 I think it would be sick to get an april snowstorm, i dont really remember any except 96' but i was 5.. I just have a gut feeling that this spring will suck with cold weather and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 I think it would be sick to get an april snowstorm, i dont really remember any except 96' but i was 5.. I just have a gut feeling that this spring will suck with cold weather and rain How'd you do on April 7th 2003? Recorded 6" in Monmouth County. Hvy snow and sticking on all roads at midday with temps in the low 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 JB at WeatherBell 3/12 blog predicting return of winter mid - north atlantic states late - march through april - whats interesting is Henry through in the towel and went warmer pattern with a neg nao - neg pna - winter will return then!!! http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 How'd you do on April 7th 2003? Recorded 6" in Monmouth County. Hvy snow and sticking on all roads at midday with temps in the low 30s. I measured 6.7" on Staten Island...Temperatures were in the 30's three days...That is second to 1982...After the April 1982 blizzard there was extreme cold for April and another light snowfall followed the few days later...Newark got another inch... I remember waking up and seeing a little snow on the ground in April 1958...It happened again in 1959...These are the top April snowfalls in NYC... Biggest snowstorms... 10.2" 3-4th 1915 10.0" 13th 1875 9.6" 6th 1982 8.5" 1st 1924 6.5" 8-9th 1917 6.5" 5th 1944 6.4" 6-7th 1938 5.0" 9th 1907 4.2" 8th 1956 4.0" 7th 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 I remember waking up and seeing a little snow on the ground in April 1958...It happened again in 1959...These are the top April snowfalls in NYC... good memory - first snow I remember is 1959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 The April 1982 blizzard is on my list of one the most memorable storms around here. It was a very rare weather event.I believe that it was the first time since the Blizzard of March 1888 that NYC Metro and LI saw three days of record low temperatures in a row along with a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 The April 1982 blizzard is on my list of one the most memorable storms around here. It was a very rare weather event.I believe that it was the first time since the Blizzard of March 1888 that NYC Metro and LI saw three days of record low temperatures in a row along with a blizzard. looking at March 1982 many mild days and the week previous to the 4/6 blizard was quite mild - never know with the nao forecast to go negative later this month into april ?? nobody could have predicted the 82 event more then a couple days or less in advance scrol down for the monthly view calendar http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1982/3/6/MonthlyHistory.html and april - also scroll down http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1982/4/6/MonthlyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 looking at March 1982 many mild days and the week previous to the 4/6 blizard was quite mild - never know with the nao forecast to go negative later this month into april ?? scrol down for the monthly view calendar http://www.wundergro...hlyHistory.html I'll add that the February 1899 storm came at the end of a record low temperature streak. It's not that we haven't seen snow in early April, but that it would be extremely rare to get an April 1982 style event in NYC Metro.The heaviest snow with the April Fool's Storm in 1997 was to our NE. I remember that it was really mild before the April 1982 blizzard and that provided a contrast to how extreme a climo event that it was.That being said, we have seen snow in early April also in 2006,2003,and 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 I'll add that the February 1899 storm came at the end of a record low temperature streak. It's not that we haven't seen snow in early April, but that it would be extremely rare to get an April 1982 style event in NYC Metro.The heaviest snow with the April Fool's Storm in 1997 was to our NE. I remember that it was really mild before the April 1982 blizzard and that provided a contrast to how extreme a climo event that it was.That being said, we have seen snow in early April also in 2006,2003,and 1996. 2003 the same as 82 many warm march days and early april days these rare early april events are usually surrounded by warm days and this makes it hard to forecast more then a day or 2 in advance http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2003/3/6/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 The only April snow I remember is early morning flurries that didn't even wet the ground let alone stick to it. This was a couple of years ago (2-4). We better not get another snowstorm, there's already leaves on some trees (buds on most). Winter would be a day late and a dollar short, your run is done my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 The only April snow I remember is early morning flurries that didn't even wet the ground let alone stick to it. This was a couple of years ago (2-4). We better not get another snowstorm, there's already leaves on some trees (buds on most). Winter would be a day late and a dollar short, your run is done my friend. Leaves on some trees? Where do you live? Last year was the earliest I've ever seen leaves on trees, but that wasn't until the last 10 days of March. Usually the pollen shoots up big time in late march-late April, with the majority of leaf out occuring late april-mid may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Leaves on some trees? Where do you live? Last year was the earliest I've ever seen leaves on trees, but that wasn't until the last 10 days of March. Usually the pollen shoots up big time in late march-late April, with the majority of leaf out occuring late april-mid may. I live in Southern Queens, they're not full blown green leaves yet but they're leaves, I only saw them on less than 10 trees, the majority of the trees just have buds, I have pics. I think this was a unique set up, those 60's & 70's we got in February must've woke the trees up and by the time the buds arrived it was consistently mild and they kept going. I've never seen buds in February or leaves in March until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 usually an April cold spell or snowfall was preceded by some late March cold... 2006 had a little snow in April...It was 24 degrees on 3/24... 2003 had snow on the 7th...it was 30 on 4/1... 2000 had snow on the 9th...it was 22 on 3/18... 1996 had snow and cold on 3/29...0.7" April 10th... 1990 had snow on 4/7...it was 26 on 3/27... 1983 had snow on 4/19...it was 25 on 3/25 and 29 3/30... 1982 had snow on 4/6...it was 22 on 3/28...27 4/5 1974 had a little snow on 4/10...it was 27 on 3/29 with 3.2" of snow... 1971 had a little snow on 4/6...it was 27 on 3/25... 1965 had snow on 4/2...it was 21 on 3/21 with 1.7" of snow... 1959 had a little snow on 4/12...it was 24 on 3/29... 1958 had a little snow on the 11th...it was 31 with 11.8" of snow 3/21... 1957 had snow on the 4th...it was 32 on 3/25... 1956 had snow on the 7th...it was 18 on 3/25... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 12Z GFS still suggests the NAO going NEG after the 20th with a coastal http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12znao.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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