Ian Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 warm/wet, cold/dry, warm/wet i spent too long typing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Euro says no back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 DCA 3/8 12z GFS: 1.07" 3/8 18z GFS: 2.05" 3/9 00z GFS: 2.59" 3/9 06z GFS: 2.73" 3/9 12z GFS: 1.89" 3/8 12z NAM: 1.39" 3/8 18z NAM: 1.17" 3/9 00z NAM: 0.85" 3/9 06z NAM: 1.57" 3/9 12z NAM: 1.85" 3/9 18z NAM: 1.21" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Not convinced in what form it will be falling, but looking at current radar, it's hard to think that precip won't be further east than forecast come morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Not convinced in what form it will be falling, but looking at current radar, it's hard to think that precip won't be further east than forecast come morning. yup...that's what I'm thinking too...i've got a %20 chance after 3PM...will be interested to see if this holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 warm/wet, cold/dry, warm/wet Only problem is it wasn't warm nor wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Only problem is it wasn't warm nor wet. Yep. Not sure why he keeps saying this. Dec-Feb was bone dry and mostly cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wow! NAM says Virginia, get your boats ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 gfs big hit through central va up into dc/balt. this is an intense 12 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 It started raining here about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 ....and my car that can carry the Kayak is out-of-service. Kinda looking forward to filming some flooding, but also not really. From watching the TV mets (not much time to watch the models myself), but there seems to be some question as to whether it's going to be west of I-270 or east. But generally they seem to stick with Fairfax, Loudoun, Montgomery, Frederick being at least partly touching the bulls eye. I'm kinda doubtful on the 3" + they are talking about though. I'd have to re-read the threads here, but seems the TV (and NWS) tend to overdo the rainfall calls, or at least my perception is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I'll be watching for a dry slot just before the cold front... looking to see a separate line of storms form behind the big batch of precipitation. VA could be under the gun for some quick afternoon heating followed by strong/severe storms. SPC seems to be putting their money on the front line of storms: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 arkageddon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 As of 7AM 0.42" with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 arkageddon? The ark is in storage, come over after work... we will get it out and ready to go before the floods arrive. Bring two of every animal, and a case of beer please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Only problem is it wasn't warm nor wet. Maybe your enhanced elevation out there in the wilds of suburban DC made a difference, but I seem to recall several rainstorms this winter followed by long cold dry stretches. I guess when you are Ji and you have redefined all sorts of terms and concepts to fit your odd pathology, it might make sense to call a driving rain at 43 degrees a "cold/dry" storm. The fact seems to remain that we didn't get much precip when it was cold and when it warmed up it started to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Maybe your enhanced elevation out there in the wilds of suburban DC made a difference, but I seem to recall several rainstorms this winter followed by long cold dry stretches. I guess when you are Ji and you have redefined all sorts of terms and concepts to fit your odd pathology, it might make sense to call a driving rain at 43 degrees a "cold/dry" storm. The fact seems to remain that we didn't get much precip when it was cold and when it warmed up it started to rain. wrong like usual January. We had 1.87 of QPF.at IAD. We were almost 2 inches below normal in qpf 99% of it was frozen including 1.31 in the Jan 27 storm December We had 1.47 QPF at IAD...waaaaaaaaay below average .74 of it was on Dec 1 where its not suppose to snow anyway. We had .18 of qpf on Dec 16 which was all snow and then there wasnt any qpf the rest of the month Basically from Dec 16 to the end of January, we saw no rain. All the precip was snow or frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I would have to fall on the side of the problem this winter being precip. We lost very little precip to warm temps. The last storm, Sunday, would have been a huge hit for me with the path the low took had it come in January. It wouldn't have been good for those to my east, but it was very close to being a good snow for me in March. Anyway, this storm, in the models, is now starting to take on the appearance of Sunday's event. This one might be too far west for me, but it looks like somebody to the west of the low is going to get snow, and not that far from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wow. I hope the NAM is right because most of this would be snow in WV. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p36_078m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 wrong like usual January. We had 1.87 of QPF.at IAD. We were almost 2 inches below normal in qpf 99% of it was frozen including 1.31 in the Jan 27 storm December We had 1.47 QPF at IAD...waaaaaaaaay below average .74 of it was on Dec 1 where its not suppose to snow anyway. We had .18 of qpf on Dec 16 which was all snow and then there wasnt any qpf the rest of the month Basically from Dec 16 to the end of January, we saw no rain. All the precip was snow or frozen You don't seem to understand the concept here, Ji. Your post just made my point well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 You don't seem to understand the concept here, Ji. Your post just made my point well. I think I see what you are saying. When the weather turned warm in mid Feb, our dry pattern ended as well? With that, I would agree. I can also see what Ji is saying. From Dec to early Feb, there were really no warm periods. The period around New Years is the only one I can think of. We did get rain, but not very much. So in summary, I think we can say that our lack of snowfall this year was mainly due to lack of precip and not temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Phineas thinks we kept going from cold and dry to warm and wet but the fact is that we didnt oscillate like that. We were cold and dry from Dec 2 through Early Feb..during the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wow. I hope the NAM is right because most of this would be snow in WV. http://www.nco.ncep....am_p36_078m.gif This looks to be more of a snow maker than the last one for the mountains. The way it wraps around it will be snowing in WV while raining to the north in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GFS keeps the heavy rain over the area into Friday morning it looks like. Starting on Thursday. That's a LOT of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GFS keeps the heavy rain over the area into Friday morning it looks like. Starting on Thursday. That's a LOT of rain. I just saw that - major differences in amounts between NAM and GFS for 24 hr precips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I just saw that - major differences in amounts between NAM and GFS for 24 hr precips. I'm kayaking home from work tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I'm kayaking home from work tomorrow... If you help Andy and I with getting the ark out of my storage unit tonight - I'll pick ya up in it tomorrow on my way home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 If you help Andy and I with getting the ark out of my storage unit tonight - I'll pick ya up in it tomorrow on my way home. I'm probably a bit out of the way, but hey, any chance to ride an Ark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 1630z SPC update is nearly identical to this morning. However, they have included text to talk about the cold front threat I mentioned earlier (which mostly just impacts central/southern VA people): ...FAR NERN SC...ERN NC/VA... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FAR NERN SC BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN ERN NC/VA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS AN AXIS OF WEAK CAPE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS. AFTER INITIATION...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN NC/VA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY BOWING STRUCTURES. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 30-45 KT...WHICH COULD AID IN TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Does anyone have the Euro qpf for the eastern shore for this storm? Salisbury to be specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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