JB's Wild Start to December

[ChescoWx]

JB sees a "fun" and "wild" start to December in the east with the storm this week changing to snow on the back side of the precip shield in the mountains from Tennessee to New England. This will end up with the trough getting stuck under the block. A second system heading east southeast next weekend and early next week for the mid atlantic coast from out of the northern plains. This will then deepen off the east coast early the week of the 5th and that week of December could be "one for the books". The combination of a negative NAO, the deepening trough in the gulf of Alaska and a new system rolling west to east and deepening over the east may mean blockbuster time that week.

Contrast this with another "well respected MET" Larry C who says not so fast...transient cold and no significant winter events in the east....should be an interesting few weeks. What say the other professionals on the board?

Thanks!

Paul

www.chescowx.com

[Huffwx]

JB sees a "fun" and "wild" start to December in the east with the storm this week changing to snow on the back side of the precip shield in the mountains from Tennessee to New England. This will end up with the trough getting stuck under the block. A second system heading east southeast next weekend and early next week for the mid atlantic coast from out of the northern plains. This will then deepen off the east coast early the week of the 5th and that week of December could be "one for the books". The combination of a negative NAO, the deepening trough in the gulf of Alaska and a new system rolling west to east and deepening over the east may mean blockbuster time that week.

Contrast this with another "well respected MET" Larry C who says not so fast...transient cold and no significant winter events in the east....should be an interesting few weeks. What say the other professionals on the board?

Thanks!

Paul

www.chescowx.com

CMC and ECMWF show something like that- so it has support. still, its quite a ways out.

JB swings for the fences all the time, so--

[ChescoWx]

Never a dull pattern with JB in da house...

[Feb]

Never a dull pattern with JB in da house...

DT woofed about it last night. Potential, keyword potential, for a MECS from Virginia to Maine December 9/10

[RaleighWx]

The threat for a winter storm for the southern plains to potentially the Deep South, Southeast, and eat coast for the 12/5-12/9 time frame has been showing up for several days now. Now we are getting this event into the day 8-10 time frame on the operational models and the GGEM, ECMWF are showing the threat. The GFS is showing its bias of overstrengthening the northern stream and probably oversupressing the system. I will write more later today on my examiner column.

[jconsor]

ECMWF weeklies support a cold and stormy pattern lasting through much of December for the northeast US, with indications of persistent blocking over NE Canada:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/42195/long-range-clues-through-christmas-1.asp

[CoastalWx]

The weeklies begin to retrograde the GOA low into a more unfavorable position by week 4, but week 2 and 3 look interesting.

[JBG]

CMC and ECMWF show something like that- so it has support. still, its quite a ways out.

JB swings for the fences all the time, so--

Doesn't the warm water off the coast at this time of year make it hard for a blockbuster event to come together?

[winterymix]

The ECMWF shows exciting times from Massachusetts to Montreal around 12/08.

GFS ensembles show the pattern relaxing into 12/21.

True, a convergence zone with higher latitude block sets up for a while during the

first and second weeks of December but this is a progressive pattern south of SNE.

That pattern warms for all in the east into the third week of the month.

South of SNE, I wouldn't be unpacking the snow blower during the next three weeks.

[Lee]

As usual, a big flip in the long range with the GFS from 0Z to 12z 0Z had many going to bed happy while 12 z saddens.

Looks like JB's conrtolling the 00 Z while the COZ is the 12 Z .

[SnoSki14]

The 12z gfs is good for cold up to day 10, after that it's like trying to hit the lottery, expect rapid run to run shifts. The general idea is that it should be colder and more stormier than usual this December. I'm not thinking arctic cold but enough to get snow going (maybe) although I have a very negative outlook on that idea given how this season is projected to go. It doesn't matter how good the Atlantic is with the negative NAO, if the Pacific is horrible, than we won't get anything going. A good example of the NAO not meaning a thing is the midweek system. It's supposed to warm up to the upper 50s and 60 for Tuesday and Wednesday with rain while the NAO is near -3.

Unfortunately this La Nina is going to slaughter folks below 42-43N, and once the NAO flips positive in January, expect to see daily temperatures in the 50s, if not 60s.

[pojrzsho]

Doesn't the warm water off the coast at this time of year make it hard for a blockbuster event to come together?

Dec 19, 2009

[weathervswife]

12z 168 hour Euro looks great....but maybe progressive.

[RaleighWx]

12z Euro actually shows some light snow across the Carolinas in the F144-F168 time frame.

In the day 7-10 range The Euro appears to be possibly showing it's bias of holding back the energy in the west/southwest in this time frame and thus the system is much less progressive than the other models and the 00z run. Even so the model shows snow on the ground at day 10 as far south as central La, MS, Al.

[Ji]

Euro shows 2 inches of snow for dc on Dec 5

[buckeye]

a week and a half ago JB was painting a pretty brutal scenario for this weekend in the east. Warned everyone to hang their xmas decorations last weekend as it would be the last chance to do it while it was still nice.

Boy I'm glad I didn't listen to him. What a Beautiful day here in central ohio today, (sunny, crisp, calm winds, and 40's). Betcha he also would have never believed it would be in the mid 40's this afternoon in places like minneapolis and chicago.... and near 50 in Iowa.

just say'n. OK, back to your discussion about JB's wild next two weeks....

[JBG]

Doesn't the warm water off the coast at this time of year make it hard for a blockbuster event to come together?

Dec 19, 2009

But that was two weeks later than the period under discussion. Ditto same date in 2008. But the December 5, 2002 storm, such as it was, is about as good as we can do that early, I believe.

[ChescoWx]

There is no one like JB to get things rolling....I always say take his cold bias and a Hurricane S (for local Philly folks) warm bias and average out and you will get a close pic of reality

Guide to JB:

Hype something long range, use cryptic wording if unsure of threat.

If threat does materialize, revel in fact that you are the greatest forecaster ever.

If threat doesn't materialize, find next threat long range and hype that.

If there is nothing in the long range, find something to gripe about, like the CFS long range forecast.

[WeatherFox]

I see this as the time to winterize my car. I'll check and replace tires that are marginal, get an oil change & lube, replace my old windshield wipers, verify that I have an ice-scraper, shovel, broom, sand bag in car. Winter will arrive as it usually does in a few weeks. Just the other day the burbs of Buffalo, New York saw several inches of snow.

For NYC later in the week I see it as being too mild for anything to get excited about. Maybe we will get another surprise episode of sleet as we had on two other recent occasions.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

As i said in a regional thread, JB has been pushing his point that winter will be over for most people in the east come january - he makes it sound like the return of January 1990 and 2006. He is characteristically vague though. Is he calling for a bust of a winter for places like Burlington, Plattsburgh, Ottawa and Montreal, or just in the places that got hammered last year? Will the cold and the storm track shift north of 42N like in 2007-2008?

Does anyone here think his call for a change to snow on Wednesday has merit? What do other mets think?

[West Point, NY]

As i said in a regional thread, JB has been pushing his point that winter will be over for most people in the east come january - he makes it sound like the return of January 1990 and 2006. He is characteristically vague though. Is he calling for a bust of a winter for places like Burlington, Plattsburgh, Ottawa and Montreal, or just in the places that got hammered last year? Will the cold and the storm track shift north of 42N like in 2007-2008?

Does anyone here think his call for a change to snow on Wednesday has merit? What do other mets think?

He wasn't vague. If you look at his overall winter forecast he as a broad area of Above Normal Snowfall from ME, the northern half of VT, NH, NY and through the Lakes and Upper MW. So unless you think you will have 6 feet of snow in December, logic dictates he didn't mean winter was over in the North Country

[Ottawa Blizzard]

He wasn't vague. If you look at his overall winter forecast he as a broad area of Above Normal Snowfall from ME, the northern half of VT, NH, NY and through the Lakes and Upper MW. So unless you think you will have 6 feet of snow in December, logic dictates he didn't mean winter was over in the North Country

I agree with you on this. It's just that his statements over the past few days would seem to indicate his belief that winter is pretty much done in the east after Christmas. I suppose up here we can still get significant snow with above normal temperatures in january and February.

[Analog96]

Doesn't the warm water off the coast at this time of year make it hard for a blockbuster event to come together?

No, exactly the opposite. Warm water would cause a bigger thermal gradient, which would enhance a mid-latitude cyclone.

[Analog96]

JB is a very smart guy but I have listened to him for the past two years and have gotten exicted many times in NE PA and I have had hardley any snow.

I seem to remember a very nice snowstorm you had at the end of last Feb.

[yhbrooklyn]

Guys, keep the discussion to the forecast, not the forecaster.

Thanks.

[will]

Guys, keep the discussion to the forecast, not the forecaster. Thanks.

this is what yehuda said!

[West Point, NY]

I agree with you on this. It's just that his statements over the past few days would seem to indicate his belief that winter is pretty much done in the east after Christmas. I suppose up here we can still get significant snow with above normal temperatures in january and February.

He pretty much laid out Interstate90 as the dividing line and still thinks the lakes are in for a rough winter

[1954Dodge]

I seem to remember a very nice snowstorm you had at the end of last Feb.

For Philly, not the Scranton area... I havent had a good storm here since the 06-07 winter.

[Weather Czar]

As i said in a regional thread, JB has been pushing his point that winter will be over for most people in the east come january - he makes it sound like the return of January 1990 and 2006. He is characteristically vague though. Is he calling for a bust of a winter for places like Burlington, Plattsburgh, Ottawa and Montreal, or just in the places that got hammered last year? Will the cold and the storm track shift north of 42N like in 2007-2008?

Does anyone here think his call for a change to snow on Wednesday has merit? What do other mets think?

Looks like he was right, I changed over to some light snow this morning.

[Brian5671]

Looks cold and dry for the next week--hardly the stuff to remember...