IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 00z Canadian and EC actually have similar setups if my analysis is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 The coastal itself is more supressed on the 06z run, we probably need a full phase here to make it work for our region. and the 12Z run will show something completely different .....what it will come up with 168 hours out is anyones guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 and the 12Z run will show something completely different ..... maybe...maybe not, when you look at the DGEX, the 00z Canadian and the 00z EC they are all in fairly good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 maybe...maybe not, when you look at the DGEX, the 00z Canadian and the 00z EC they are all in fairly good agreement. I was only talking about the GFS model which I still think is going to be all over the place the next few days in regards to the 3/24 event and might even lose it for a time which it is famous for....probably going to be more of an over running event with the warmer air riding over the cold dome..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 New GFS is garbage, really slows down the timing and keeps everything to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 hopefully we escape the snow and get a sunny day like the 00z euro and 12z gfs both have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 12z Canadian you barking at this one? strong confluence to the northeast showing up on all models, will it hold for 7 more days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 you barking at this one? strong confluence to the northeast showing up on all models, will it hold for 7 more days? Storm starts in 6.5 days. Earthlight will always bark when the dgex shows a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 If we get some good overrunning out ahead of the coastal, this one could be epic, especially considering the time of year and what a crazy switch it would be from the weather the next few days. Sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Looking at 12z Euro soundings for LGA: Rain switches to frozen hour 138. And then .58" of precip falls with 850's well below and surface 33-35 degrees thru hour 162. Thicknesses are a little high before crashing, so it could be some sleet as well. Pure snow looks to begin after hour 144. Euro is a full day quicker then the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 *sigh* Well things can always change, after this Winter I don't even consider a 3 day forecast to be set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 you barking at this one? strong confluence to the northeast showing up on all models, will it hold for 7 more days? no, but who knows. best case scenario we get a few inches. and it would have to occur at night...sun is strong now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 no, but who knows. best case scenario we get a few inches. and it would have to occur at night...sun is strong now. With the 850s shown on the 0z GFS during the snowfall, it wouldn't make much difference if it occurred during the day, except for perhaps slowing accumulations in extreme urban areas like downtown Manhattan. 850s are like -5C to -10C, which is plenty cold for a daytime snowfall in late March, no big deal. This wouldn't be a marginal event IF models are correct with the degree of the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 *sigh* Well things can always change, after this Winter I don't even consider a 3 day forecast to be set in stone. What do the soundings look like for KMMU? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 What do the soundings look like for KMMU? Thanks The 12z GFS was dry for our area with the wave passing south, and you can see the dewpoint depression of the sounding indicating an unsaturated atmosphere. Anyway, here is 168: Cold but no moisture. Would totally suck if this wave passed to our south and hit BWI/DC in late March. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 The 12z GFS was dry for our area with the wave passing south, and you can see the dewpoint depression of the sounding indicating an unsaturated atmosphere. Anyway, here is 168: Cold but no moisture. Would totally suck if this wave passed to our south and hit BWI/DC in late March. Ugh. what I meant was, what did the Euro show for KMMU Its hard to tell based on the E-Wall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 what I meant was, what did the Euro show for KMMU Its hard to tell based on the E-Wall maps. Sorry, don't have access to paid Euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 MMU Euro... in order: surface temps, 850 temps, surface pressure, surface humidity, 700 humidity, 6 hr precip, 500 hghts, 1000/500 thick.. Bolded is precip amount. WED 06Z 23-MAR 4.4 1.1 1011 93 100 0.09 558 549 WED 12Z 23-MAR 2.0 -0.9 1011 96 100 0.25 557 548 WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.0 -1.6 1010 93 68 0.26 555 546 THU 00Z 24-MAR 1.9 -3.8 1014 96 32 0.04 550 539 THU 06Z 24-MAR 0.8 -5.3 1016 91 42 0.02 549 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 MMU Euro... in order: surface temps, 850 temps, surface pressure, surface humidity, 700 humidity, 6 hr precip, 500 hghts, 1000/500 thick.. Bolded is precip amount. WED 06Z 23-MAR 4.4 1.1 1011 93 100 0.09 558 549 WED 12Z 23-MAR 2.0 -0.9 1011 96 100 0.25 557 548 WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.0 -1.6 1010 93 68 0.26 555 546 THU 00Z 24-MAR 1.9 -3.8 1014 96 32 0.04 550 539 THU 06Z 24-MAR 0.8 -5.3 1016 91 42 0.02 549 536 Can you do HPN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 HPN Euro... in order: surface temps, 850 temps, surface pressure, surface humidity, 700 humidity, 6 hr precip, 500 hghts, 1000/500 thick.. Bolded is precip amount. WED 00Z 23-MAR 7.9 3.4 1009 91 96 0.20 558 551 WED 06Z 23-MAR 4.1 -0.2 1011 87 93 0.05 557 548 WED 12Z 23-MAR 1.9 -2.2 1011 94 99 0.16 555 546 WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.0 -2.8 1010 93 82 0.25 553 545 THU 00Z 24-MAR 1.6 -5.5 1014 96 44 0.05 548 537 THU 06Z 24-MAR 0.9 -6.5 1016 91 55 0.03 547 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Looks like an easy 1-3" on the back end, maybe 2-4" for those above 500' elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Looks like an easy 1-3" on the back end, maybe 2-4" for those above 500' elevation. Anything after 6z Wednesday, is most likely snow for HPN. So its close to .50" QPF. Surface shows 33-34 but euro is always a tad warm at surface in long range and corrects itself closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Anything after 6z Wednesday, is most likely snow for HPN. So its close to .50" QPF. Surface shows 33-34 but euro is always a tad warm at surface in long range and corrects itself closer in. Upton Says Showers Next Week http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 no, but who knows. best case scenario we get a few inches. and it would have to occur at night...sun is strong now. 4/7/03 did not occur at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 4/7/03 did not occur at night. The intensity is the main reason why the snow accumulated during the daytime even on roadways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 4/7/03 did not occur at night. Sure, but if you think we're getting heavy snow rates with this upper air setup, you are mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.