general march discussion

[TheTrials]

0.67" here. I don't think any model really ever had much more than that.

Agree. Models did just fine, the event was what it was pegged to be. Not sure what the OP was looking for.

[forkyfork]

yesterday's 21z sref mean showed about .75"

[ag3]

Nzucker Storm is showing up on GFS and GGEM in the 168 range. The GFS ensembles are also very bullish.

[IsentropicLift]

The GFS and NAM both had 0.75" + 36hrs out for NE NJ which is probably what prompted the flood watch. According to this graphic, most of north Jersey got between 0.25" and 0.50". ~.50" is significantly less than most models had for this area.

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

[nzucker]

Nzucker Storm is showing up on GFS and GGEM in the 168 range. The GFS ensembles are also very bullish.

All the models are showing a ridge in Western Canada moving towards Hudson Bay, which is a good place for blocking late in the season with the shorter wavelengths. At the same time this ridge migrates across Canada, there's a strong North Atlantic ridge/east-based NAO that's trying to position itself favorably for an East Coast storm. We still have an unfavorable Pacific pattern with a vortex sitting off the West Coast, so we'll have to watch the SE ridge and its positioning to determine how far north such a storm might track. But there's definitely a chance for snow, and many meteorologists such as JB and HM have pegged late March/early April as a time when the East will see a colder pattern with persistent troughing. One reason is that the West Coast trough that's common in La Niña actually starts to teleconnect to lower heights in the east as we head towards spring.

[NEG NAO]

All the models are showing a ridge in Western Canada moving towards Hudson Bay, which is a good place for blocking late in the season with the shorter wavelengths. At the same time this ridge migrates across Canada, there's a strong North Atlantic ridge/east-based NAO that's trying to position itself favorably for an East Coast storm. We still have an unfavorable Pacific pattern with a vortex sitting off the West Coast, so we'll have to watch the SE ridge and its positioning to determine how far north such a storm might track. But there's definitely a chance for snow, and many meteorologists such as JB and HM have pegged late March/early April as a time when the East will see a colder pattern with persistent troughing. One reason is that the West Coast trough that's common in La Niña actually starts to teleconnect to lower heights in the east as we head towards spring.

JB is bullish on a possible snow event near I -80 ( IMO I -70 possible) BUT HM says the GFS is too cold . Good sign ....

[doncat]

The GFS and NAM both had 0.75" + 36hrs out for NE NJ which is probably what prompted the flood watch. According to this graphic, most of north Jersey got between 0.25" and 0.50". ~.50" is significantly less than most models had for this area.

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

Had 0.75 in. here.

[A-L-E-X]

All the models are showing a ridge in Western Canada moving towards Hudson Bay, which is a good place for blocking late in the season with the shorter wavelengths. At the same time this ridge migrates across Canada, there's a strong North Atlantic ridge/east-based NAO that's trying to position itself favorably for an East Coast storm. We still have an unfavorable Pacific pattern with a vortex sitting off the West Coast, so we'll have to watch the SE ridge and its positioning to determine how far north such a storm might track. But there's definitely a chance for snow, and many meteorologists such as JB and HM have pegged late March/early April as a time when the East will see a colder pattern with persistent troughing. One reason is that the West Coast trough that's common in La Niña actually starts to teleconnect to lower heights in the east as we head towards spring.

Shorter wavelengths for the win......

[A-L-E-X]

had a half inch from today's system.

0.68" here but it's all dry now with several hours of bright sunshine

[nzucker]

If you consider 4/1/97 to be a HECS, what about 4/7/03?

Were there any massive totals in the 4/7/03 storm?

April Fool's Day dropped 20"+ in much of SNE and 12"+ in much of the Catskills...

[A-L-E-X]

Were there any massive totals in the 4/7/03 storm?

April Fool's Day dropped 20"+ in much of SNE and 12"+ in much of the Catskills...

Its like a 1 or 2 on the NESIS scale. April 1982 was a superior storm over a wider area.

[A-L-E-X]

For the right balance of very heavy snow and wide coverage, I would go with this:

APRIL 1982 > APRIL 1996 > APRIL 1997 > APRIL 2003

But, as Chris L might say, April 1915 would top them all

[Chris L]

For the right balance of very heavy snow and wide coverage, I would go with this:

APRIL 1982 > APRIL 1996 > APRIL 1997 > APRIL 2003

But, as Chris L might say, April 1915 would top them all

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1891.html

Or Apri 2-3, 1891.

[A-L-E-X]

Wow! How much snow fell in that storm, Chris?

[nzucker]

http://wintercenter..../photo1891.html

Or Apri 2-3, 1891.

Wow great pictures from Vassar!

I spent some time there working on adolescent ed stuff....beautiful campus although I don't think I ever saw that much snow there since it was Winter 07-08

[Chris L]

Wow! How much snow fell in that storm, Chris?

Let me check the Kocin book in a bit.

But the pictures show a good amount.... I am sure Don knows.

[MJO812]

0z GFS shows the Nzucker storm. Big Snowstorm for the whole area

[A-L-E-X]

That 0 line looks north of our area

Oh well, isnt that more than a week away? No use thinking about that yet

[CooL]

0z GFS shows the Nzucker storm. Big Snowstorm for the whole area

nice 50/50 low, PV phase, and a ridge out west. huh

[CooL]

That 0 line looks north of our area

Oh well, isnt that more than a week away? No use thinking about that yet

all snow this run based on surface and 850's alex haha, its actually overunning to a coastal which looks beautiful, i dont know what else to think lol maybe its the HM storm

[A-L-E-X]

nice 50/50 low, PV phase, and a ridge out west. huh

Just nudge that western ridge slightly further east and with the downstream changes we're really in business Just expect this to change about 1000000 times lol.

[A-L-E-X]

all snow this run based on surface and 850's alex haha, its actually overunning to a coastal which looks beautiful, i dont know what else to think lol maybe its the HM storm

That map looks really small on my monitor so you may well be right lol-- looks like the GFS really wants to get wintry for the end of the month.

Are you coming to the GTG? Looks like we might be talking shop there with a possible storm to track

[CooL]

That map looks really small on my monitor so you may well be right lol-- looks like the GFS really wants to get wintry for the end of the month.

Are you coming to the GTG? Looks like we might be talking shop there with a possible storm to track

nah i wish i could, its wouldve been cool to see what everyone looks like and attach them to their names on here, but if this storm is in anyway legit then get ready for an elevation war in that place lol

[nzucker]

0z GFS shows the Nzucker storm. Big Snowstorm for the whole area

Why is this storm named after me? Just because I refused to give up on March?

That 0 line looks north of our area

You're definitely reading it incorrectly due to the tiny size: the 0z GFS keeps 850s from -5C to -10C during the snowfall for NYC metro, and surface temperatures are 0C in the City and a bit colder in the suburbs. Verbatim, it's a major snowfall at 31-32 degrees, would be quite a surprise given the warmth coming these next two days. If this were to verify, we'd get quite a cold shot after the snowstorm with the big block over the North Atlantic; it would definitely add a few more days to our snowcover.

My current grade for this winter is an A-. If this storm were to happen similar to the depiction on the 0z GFS, I'd definitely raise it to an A/A+. Would be great to have a parting shot and see one more snowfall.

[CooL]

Why is this storm named after me? Just because I refused to give up on March?

You're definitely reading it incorrectly due to the tiny size: the 0z GFS keeps 850s from -5C to -10C during the snowfall for NYC metro, and surface temperatures are 0C in the City and a bit colder in the suburbs. Verbatim, it's a major snowfall at 31-32 degrees, would be quite a surprise given the warmth coming these next two days. If this were to verify, we'd get quite a cold shot after the snowstorm with the big block over the North Atlantic; it would definitely add a few more days to our snowcover.

My current grade for this winter is an A-. If this storm were to happen similar to the depiction on the 0z GFS, I'd definitely raise it to an A/A+. Would be great to have a parting shot and see one more snowfall.

thoughts on the pattern presented on the gfs for the storm? enough blocking, polar vortex, HP, PNA --they all look favorable? ect..or should we just wait it out?

[nzucker]

thoughts on the pattern presented on the gfs for the storm? enough blocking, polar vortex, HP, PNA --they all look favorable? ect..or should we just wait it out?

Here's what the 0z GFS shows at 144 hours:

We have a great ridge over Western Canada, basically a -EPO pattern that's bringing the cold into the CONUS. Pattern is far from perfect in the Atlantic, but we do see a huge east-based NAO block...we'd probably like that block further west, but as it stands we could definitely see a storm amplifying underneath it. The block starts to move westward into Greenland as the storm develops, which means we could have the potential for a long-duration event with significant snows. It might turn into a race with the storm against the nascent Greenland blocking.

One thing that worries me is how far the vort over North Dakota can dig with the presence of that pesky SE ridge. It's not too surprising to see a powerful subtropical high in a strong La Niña with little blocking, but we need this feature to settle down a bit in order for the storm to track south of us. Otherwise, it's just a cold spring rain with temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s. I do believe this is the period to watch out for as many mets have mentioned late March/early April as possibly being a cold period in the East. However, the GFS may be digging the shortwave erroneously, and the storm is so far away it is prone to significant changes or not occurring at all. I wouldn't say I'm excited yet but there's definitely a better than average chance for a late March snowfall.

[A-L-E-X]

Why is this storm named after me? Just because I refused to give up on March?

You're definitely reading it incorrectly due to the tiny size: the 0z GFS keeps 850s from -5C to -10C during the snowfall for NYC metro, and surface temperatures are 0C in the City and a bit colder in the suburbs. Verbatim, it's a major snowfall at 31-32 degrees, would be quite a surprise given the warmth coming these next two days. If this were to verify, we'd get quite a cold shot after the snowstorm with the big block over the North Atlantic; it would definitely add a few more days to our snowcover.

My current grade for this winter is an A-. If this storm were to happen similar to the depiction on the 0z GFS, I'd definitely raise it to an A/A+. Would be great to have a parting shot and see one more snowfall.

Thanks for posting the map in the other thread-- what I thought was the 0C line was actually the -10C line! What are your thoughts for multiple chances between 3/20 and 4/10? One thing that I saw mentioned earlier was that the last few storms have been trending S/E.

[ag3]

This is definitely the Nzucker storm, if it happens.

[IsentropicLift]

Potential here is huge.....with this type of setup, you can get a HECS if everything plays out perfectly. Nice overrunning followed by a coastal, this is one of those long duration PDII type scenarios

[IsentropicLift]

The coastal itself is more supressed on the 06z run, we probably need a full phase here to make it work for our region.