nzucker Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Great news! time to ball it up finally I honestly think Friday is looking cooler than expected. Both the 12z ECM and 12z GFS show a more suppressed, weak low that tracks eastwards from Lake Michigan. We'll probably have a lot of cloud cover in that scenario, compared to earlier tracks that had it passing over Central Quebec. 850s are like +7C at 18z Friday on the GFS, not sure that suggests widespread 70F readings. you snow mongers say the same things over and over again 12z GFS is cold and stormy in the longer range, definitely an interesting pattern. Hudson Bay block is a good substitute for a -NAO at this time of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 12z euro has a Nzucker storm day 8.5-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 12z euro has a Nzucker storm day 8.5-10. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 LOL a clipper bombs out and stalls to god knows what pressure, over SE Canada and it acts as a block and it forces the storm south of us and gives us a snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 a clipper bombs out and stalls to god knows what pressure, over SE Canada and it acts as a block and it forces the storm south of us and gives us a snowstorm lol yeah, THAT is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Snow may be over for the season but cold weather certainly isn't. We've got a rapidly weakening Nina coupled with a westward retrograding north atlantic block over the next 10 days, which should form a pretty healthy -NAO by the end of March. The difference b/t this year and other weakening mod/strong ninas like 1956, 1971, etc is the -NAO timing. In those winters, we had the breakdown in February similar to this winter, but the -NAO was back by March 10th, guaranteeing a colder than normal month (which many sources expected for this particular March). Contrast to right now, the NAO will remain positive for another week, and once we get into the colder air by the last full week of March, it'll probably be too little too late to make March a normal or below normal month temperature wise. Can't say the same for April, as this delayed -NAO timing increases chances for a colder than normal April, then if this is an average 4-6 week episode, we'd head positive and go warm for late April into May. In fact there are some signals starting to show up for front end heat this summer -- hot May/June, similar to 2008, but that's for another discussion. Bottom line is I definitely wouldn't put away the heavier jackets; I'm not going to guarantee one more snowfall but I would say chances are heightened more than they usually are for a coastal accumulating snowfall in the March 23rd-April 10th period (even better chance NW of NYC). We'll torch on Friday and possibly Tuesday next week if we can warm sector, but enjoy that anomalous warmth b/c it may be harder to come by over the next few weeks. Note the NAO downturn in a week. Big time cold air up in Canada, ready to be driven SE on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 GFS and EURO have been showing fatansy cold and snow for weeks now. Still waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 GFS and EURO have been showing fatansy cold and snow for weeks now. Still waiting. yep. And tomorrow is the first day of avg highs in the 50s in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 We'll get over 70 on Friday unless you're directly on the water. The winds are forecast to be west-southwest with 850 temps near or over 10 C. I agree, especially from the NYC S&W. The only fly in the ointment here is that we get clouds from the cold front too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 you snow mongers say the same things over and over again feb 5 '10 could have been like jan 96 if it came north feb 10 '10 could have produced 2 feet if it were colder nyc could see 100" if we get (insert string of historic winter periods) jan 27 was better than boxing day in (insert location that didn't get 2' from boxing day) the snowicane could have produced 3 feet if it were colder i hope this feb/march is like 1956 i hope we get a march 1958 the superstorm would have been amazing if it tracked further east boxing day was better than jan 96 in (insert location that did get 2' from boxing day) march 01 could have been better than jan 96 if it phased right last winter could have beaten 96 if feb 5 came north more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 feb 5 '10 could have been like jan 96 if it came north feb 10 '10 could have produced 2 feet if it were colder nyc could see 100" if we get (insert string of historic winter periods) jan 27 was better than boxing day in (insert location that didn't get 2' from boxing day) the snowicane could have produced 3 feet if it were colder i hope this feb/march is like 1956 i hope we get a march 1958 the superstorm would have been amazing if it tracked further east boxing day was better than jan 96 in (insert location that did get 2' from boxing day) march 01 could have been better than jan 96 if it phased right last winter could have beaten 96 if feb 5 came north more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 The low was 29.3 this morning, Im wondering if I see 20s again before next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 March has been brutal this year, actually worse than last year for snowfall, if that's remotely possible. I fully expected to see the blocking return for part of March as it did in the strong Niña winter of 55-56, but instead we've had a huge polar vortex sitting over Greenland chewing up all our cold air as well as an insufferable Pacific pattern with a consistent West Coast trough. Not a pretty picture so far, although there may be one last chance for a snowfall in the last few days of the month into early April as some mets believe a blocking pattern will take hold. The pattern this winter has been a snowier version of 75-76, which had a cold first half in the Northeast, aided by an MJO burst in January 1976 just as we saw this season, and then a much milder Feb/March with troughing shifting west, which has also happened this year. Well, last March we got a Trace and this March it's a Zero-- so I guess this March has been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 We only had 18.7" here so it wasn't quite as big of a hit as for NYC or NNJ, but still a good storm. 82-83 was a putrid winter overall...early December was ridiculously mild with the temperature reaching 71F on December 4th after it was nearly 80F in early November...another mild spell occurred in January 1983 with the mercury hitting 58F on January 11th along with a bunch of surrounding days in the upper 40s. The snow cover from the February Nor'easter was gone by February 27th, and only 31.2" fell the entire season. It's pretty amazing to have below average snowfall with a 18" event, but so it was in the crummy winter of 82-83, a strong El Niño that delivered one epic storm and then a ton of mildness the rest of the season. 82-83 is a bit reminiscent of 2005-06, when we had 20" in the Feb 2006 snowstorm but only 40" on the entire season. The major difference was that 05-06 did have a cold/snowy period in early-mid December whereas it was in the 60s and 70s during that period in 1982. Don't forget April 19-20, 1983 when JFK got 1.5" and parts of Long Island got 3" I wonder how much you got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 more to come march always wins here in dobbs ferry i had snow last april here in dobbs ferry, april 3rd we had 4-6 flakes from a snow shower march blocking will come back those saying winter is over are giving up too early here in dobbs ferry with 401 ft elevation we can get snow in spring we got snow at my house from this storm that tracked over nyc...it was my pocono house but i was still correct in saying it would snow at my house we had roaring 20 mph winds here in dobbs ferry that are blowing over my tulips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 I really wish i was going to this g2g now.. you guys just keep hammerin each other lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 march always wins here in dobbs ferry i had snow last april here in dobbs ferry, april 3rd we had 4-6 flakes from a snow shower march blocking will come back those saying winter is over are giving up too early here in dobbs ferry with 401 ft elevation we can get snow in spring we got snow at my house from this storm that tracked over nyc...it was my pocono house but i was still correct in saying it would snow at my house we had roaring 20 mph winds here in dobbs ferry that are blowing over my tulips Next we are going to hear that Mt. Zucker is actually volcanic and has earthquakes and lava flows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 There was 7 feet of snow on the city streets after 96 storm. More where I was in astoria. City def under measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 LOL. I love how people joke at me and Nathan. It's all good fun, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 16, 2011 Author Share Posted March 16, 2011 SPC WRF gets us overnight with heavy rain/thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I think you most likely will see 20s again - sometime in the Mar 23-31 period. The low was 29.3 this morning, Im wondering if I see 20s again before next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 That threat on the long range GFS definitly looks worth watching. It's an odd setup albeit but there is definitly a storm to track over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Don't forget April 19-20, 1983 when JFK got 1.5" and parts of Long Island got 3" I wonder how much you got? 1.8" here on 4/19/1983 march blocking will come back Looks as if it will given Isotherm's post. March really hasn't been that warm so far, I've been stuck in the low 40s here for three days in a row. The original forecast was for 51F today but that may be tough achieve with all these low clouds and showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Looks like the rain event overnight wound up being more or less a non-event. Most of the models were way overdone on QPF. People here at work are all happy thinking that winter has breathed its last breath, a snowy last few days in March would drop a few jaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 had a half inch from today's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I think April 1997 might be a HECS because of the extremely late-season nature of the storm. I had 6" here I believe from the Fool's Day Nor'easter, and most of SNE had 20"+. It's definitely the most questionable on the list, but I think when it occurred puts it over the hump, especially considering the contrast with 60F temperatures two days before and the generally mild character of that winter. Some people in the DC/BWI suburbs got over 10" with Feb 2006, NYC had 26.7", West Hartford got 30"...I think that's definitely a HECS. It's not as big of a storm as 1/96 obviously but still makes the list. I don't think February 5th was a HECS because it was just a DC-BWI/ACY storm; New York City and Boston had zero snow from the event, and it was too far north to hit Richmond or anywhere further south down the I-95 corridor. Sure, some of the totals were huge, but it missed two of the biggest cities. The impact was intense but extremely limited. If you think 2/5 was a HECS, then how about February 1989? It hit SE VA and Cape Cod with 20" amounts and missed all the major cities. Does that count too since it slammed ORF and ACK? February 10th was a borderline HECS....most of the DC/BWI suburbs saw near 20" with the storm, especially Northern Maryland, and it came just days after the 2/5 blizzard, pushing snow depths to record levels. I had 12.5" on 2/10, another storm I drove home from Vermont for, but totals were limited further north. Upon further consideration, it was probably a HECS given the mammoth totals in the DC/BWI metro and respectable amounts up to NYC. Again, not on the same level as 1/96 or 3/93, but a HECS. February 25th was not a HECS...all of SNE saw rain, it didn't hit DC/BWI at all, and PHL only got a few inches. The storm was historic for NYC, especially the northern suburbs in Westchester/Putnam/Orange Counties where totals were in excess of 2', but it didn't have enough widespread accumulation to be a HECS. If you consider 4/1/97 to be a HECS, what about 4/7/03? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Looks like the rain event overnight wound up being more or less a non-event. Most of the models were way overdone on QPF. People here at work are all happy thinking that winter has breathed its last breath, a snowy last few days in March would drop a few jaws. 0.67" here. I don't think any model really ever had much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 0.67" here. I don't think any model really ever had much more than that. every model was in the 0.50 -0.75 range, but either way, it was a lame event..The last 3 storms have shifted east inside 36hrs which is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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