NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 18z GFS still just south - but most mets including JB thinks this is going to be further north more of an I -80 event - this is where you want the models especially the GFS to be 7 days out........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 still just south - but most mets including JB thinks this is going to be further north more of an I -80 event - this is where you want the models especially the GFS to be 7 days out........ agreed, im loving the confluence showing up on the models, tells me we have a high change at getting some snow. I dont care where the models put the actual storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Sure, but if you think we're getting heavy snow rates with this upper air setup, you are mistaken. I was just pointing it out that it doesn't HAVE to occur at night just because it's late in the year for it to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I was just pointing it out that it doesn't HAVE to occur at night just because it's late in the year for it to stick. Well, yea the funny thing about April snowstorms is that it usually has to snow heavily for it to stick regardless of it being day or night. We have a bit more wiggle room in late March. A slightly less well known April event also featured a short burst of heavy day time snow -- 4/4/06. As a matter of fact, most of our April accumulating snows have occurred in the daytime-- this might just be a case of the days being longer than the nights by then. The only exception I can think of offhand is 4/9/96 into 4/10/96 in which there was some accumulation during the day but the majority of it occurred during the night with near 0 visibility and blizzard like conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Storm starts in 6.5 days. Earthlight will always bark when the dgex shows a storm. Earthlight always barks during a full moon lol jk John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Looking at 12z Euro soundings for LGA: Rain switches to frozen hour 138. And then .58" of precip falls with 850's well below and surface 33-35 degrees thru hour 162. Thicknesses are a little high before crashing, so it could be some sleet as well. Pure snow looks to begin after hour 144. Euro is a full day quicker then the GGEM. I would ask you for JFK but it's almost time for the 0z runs haha..... although with the stupid time change we have to stay up til like 3 AM for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Well, yea the funny thing about April snowstorms is that it usually has to snow heavily for it to stick regardless of it being day or night. We have a bit more wiggle room in late March. A slightly less well known April event also featured a short burst of heavy day time snow -- 4/4/06. As a matter of fact, most of our April accumulating snows have occurred in the daytime-- this might just be a case of the days being longer than the nights by then. The only exception I can think of offhand is 4/9/96 into 4/10/96 in which there was some accumulation during the day but the majority of it occurred during the night with near 0 visibility and blizzard like conditions. 4/9/00 was a strictly night time event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 4/9/00 was a strictly night time event. How much did we get with that one? I don't remember that storm well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 BTW how many accumulating snowfalls have we had AFTER April 10th-- the only one I remember is April 19-20, 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 How much did we get with that one? I don't remember that storm well. Only 2 inches, but the afternoon before was 77 degrees and the temperature dropped 48 degrees in less than 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 im all in on the seasonal trend, which is snowstorms peaking at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I would ask you for JFK but it's almost time for the 0z runs haha..... although with the stupid time change we have to stay up til like 3 AM for the EURO. Can't post it since I'm on phone. But it's a little warmer then LGA. Probably take away .10" of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Can't post it since I'm on phone. But it's a little warmer then LGA. Probably take away .10" of frozen. It's ok I'm going to try and stay up late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 It's ok I'm going to try and stay up late tonight. Too early for that. If threat is still there Monday at 12z, then u will have many staying up for the late night models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Not always true. I recall slow, steady accumulation at night on 4/1/97 with light to moderate snow and temps around 33F (this was on the North Shore of LI). We had about 5", almost all of which fell at night. Well, yea the funny thing about April snowstorms is that it usually has to snow heavily for it to stick regardless of it being day or night. We have a bit more wiggle room in late March. A slightly less well known April event also featured a short burst of heavy day time snow -- 4/4/06. As a matter of fact, most of our April accumulating snows have occurred in the daytime-- this might just be a case of the days being longer than the nights by then. The only exception I can think of offhand is 4/9/96 into 4/10/96 in which there was some accumulation during the day but the majority of it occurred during the night with near 0 visibility and blizzard like conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Say bye to the warm weather. Big -NAO on the Euro. The GFS isn't as cold as the Euro. Also, there looks to be some blocking come back in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 the April 9-10th 1996 snowfall was all heavy wet snow but less than an inch accumulated in the city and Brooklyn...I recorded 1.30" of melted snow but only 1/2 inch accumulated...It was a day/night event with temperatures just above freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Say bye to the warm weather. Big -NAO on the Euro. The GFS isn't as cold as the Euro. Also, there looks to be some blocking come back in the short term. Do you also root for higher gas prices?? Who the hell in their right mind would want it to get colder now??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 Do you also root for higher gas prices?? Who the hell in their right mind would want it to get colder now??? He can root for it until the official start of Spring. At that point, I root for warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 He can root for it until the official start of Spring. At that point, I root for warmth. Which is <60 hours from now. He can root for nuclear wars if he wants to, but cold weather for a baseball fan just as the seasons about to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 If I had it my way, it would be cold and snowy everyday from October 1st to May 1st. After May 1st I'm ready for Spring, but not a day before. I actually would love a cold and snowy April, it would be the icing on the cake of a nearly perfect snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 Which is <60 hours from now. He can root for nuclear wars if he wants to, but cold weather for a baseball fan just as the seasons about to start? Didn't it snow on opening day at Yankee Stadium in '98? I remember Pettitte pitching through the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Do you also root for higher gas prices?? Who the hell in their right mind would want it to get colder now??? That won''t effect the gas prices at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Didn't it snow on opening day at Yankee Stadium in '98? I remember Pettitte pitching through the snow Well since we won the world series that year, it migh not be such a bad thing. 2003 opener was snowed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 GFS has a nice ending for NJ, next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Didn't it snow on opening day at Yankee Stadium in '98? I remember Pettitte pitching through the snow That was 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Do you also root for higher gas prices?? Who the hell in their right mind would want it to get colder now??? You are on the wrong forums if this is how you feel. While potentially true, this thread and the forums here are full of snow lovers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 12z GFS bumped north for next week. The snow line is Just above Southern Jersey and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 GFS has a nice ending for NJ, next week. Visual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 12z GFS long range is cold and stormy as well with good blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.