earthlight Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 34/sunny and windy. amazing differences since yesterday, but such is life in march at this latitude. any reports of the significant snow at nzuckers elevation? by the way props deservedly go out to noreaster85 who said this would be a flooding event all along and was absolutely correct happy monday people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 34/sunny and windy. amazing differences since yesterday, but such is life in march at this latitude. any reports of the significant snow at nzuckers elevation? by the way props deservedly go out to noreaster85 who said this would be a flooding event all along and was absolutely correct happy monday people He said that? Where, I don't remember any posts from him about the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I had some flakes but nothing major here... certainly I jackpoted with the 4.60 inch rainfall.. I always seem to jackpot on rain, but in a hole when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 sun is out and temps are starting to warm. 40F here in Midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I had some flakes but nothing major here... certainly I jackpoted with the 4.60 inch rainfall.. I always seem to jackpot on rain, but in a hole when it comes to snow. LOL That reminds me of what William said about Islip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I heard Binghamton NY got 14" of snow from this event...The streets were cleansed yesterday and most of the parking lot piles are almost gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 He said that? Where, I don't remember any posts from him about the rain. Give credit where credit is due.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Give credit where credit is due.. ok, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I had a 30 minute burst of snow earlier today around 730. It was nice to see. Hopefully it wasn't the last of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Another big rain event late this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Another big rain event late this week. I'll be anxiously awaiting earthlights props to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Noreaster85 was right on for some but not for all. I would not consider what I saw IMBY yesterday a major flooding issue. Yes I live on a cliff so I never flood but from the GWB to Jersey City right along the Hudson River was just fine on roads that are known to flood when conditions warrant it. Admittedly, it was a more interesting event than I thought it would be as we got some more wind than I thought we would but nothing Earth shattering. Regardless of the QPF, this event for many in my area was run of the mill and no more than a nuisance just like I said it would be. That being said Quincy's photos were very impressive and did prove that this was a severe flooding event for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Noreaster85 was right on for some but not for all. I would not consider what I saw IMBY yesterday a major flooding issue. Yes I live on a cliff so I never flood but from the GWB to Jersey City right along the Hudson River was just fine on roads that are known to flood when conditions warrant it. Admittedly, it was a more interesting event than I thought it would be as we got some more wind than I thought we would but nothing Earth shattering. Regardless of the QPF, this event for many in my area was run of the mill and no more than a nuisance just like I said it would be. The places that flooded in New Jersey, NY and CT always flood when their levels are high and you get this type of rain. Rivers like the Still River (nice pics Quincy) are easily agitated by heavy rain in a short period of time and you see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 The places that flooded in New Jersey, NY and CT always flood when their levels are high and you get this type of rain. Rivers like the Still River (nice pics Quincy) are easily agitated by heavy rain in a short period of time and you see what happens. Places that usually flood in my area with the dynamics of a rain storm like yesterday did not which means it wasn't as impressive in my area as some thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Places that usually flood in my area with the dynamics of a rain storm like yesterday did not which means it wasn't as impressive in my area as some thought it would be. well, thats some good news then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 well, thats some good news then. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 12z GFS is over 2" of rain for NYC immediate. 12z Euro is .74" for same storm. Euro is 12 hours slower as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 12z GFS is over 2" of rain for NYC immediate. 12z Euro is .74" for same storm. Euro is 12 hours slower as well. yeah, i just never fully trust the euro qpf amounts for some reason...But the GFS and NAM both say more significant rain again ughh, we'll see if models start to cut this thing off again and/or stall the precip over our area..It could happen with the strong high nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 yeah, i just never fully trust the euro qpf amounts for some reason...But the GFS and NAM both say more significant rain again ughh, we'll see if models start to cut this thing off again and/or stall the precip over our area..It could happen with the strong high nearby. Yeah. Euro for yesterday's event was all over the place in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Had about 30 minutes of snow today, hopefully its not the last snow we get this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Watch that storm around March 14-15, that looks like the last shot potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I heard Binghamton NY got 14" of snow from this event...The streets were cleansed yesterday and most of the parking lot piles are almost gone... and Burlington rec'd 24.3" bringing their seasonal total to 124.3." But there's no need for jealously, we've got plenty of potential flooding to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 and Burlington rec'd 24.3" bringing their seasonal total to 124.3." But there's no need for jealously, we've got plenty of potential flooding to look forward to. Yeah I think I am taking one more road trip to my old stomping grounds and alma mater, Middlebury. Snow is epic up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Yeah I think I am taking one more road trip to my old stomping grounds and alma mater, Middlebury. Snow is epic up there Would be good if you could take some pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Discussion from our blog just posted. http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/p/forecast-discussion.html Technical Forecast Discussion New York Metro Weather March 12, 2011 at 7:10pm Near Term Upper Low that brought the clouds last night is now up in northern new england. Kicker s/w trof now over great lakes and moving E. Ahead of this s/w is a cold front which is located from around lake erie back down to the southern plains. The tail end of the boundary is stationary. The front will push thru tnt. We had an initial shot of forcing this afternoon with a weak s/w trof and that sparked off some -shras which have since moved up into new england. The shras likely either didnt make it to the ground (due to dry low-levels), or just deposited some sprinkles across the region. The same can be said for the fropa tnt. The kicker s/w is quite potent, but it should stay just to our north. This means the best dpva will also stay a bit to our north overnight. We should see some SCT clouds around, but overall no widespread qpf from this feature. All the guidance are pretty uniform with the timing of the vort max. Winds will veer around to the W after the fropa, but this is not a cold wind direction so with little in the way of an air mass change tonight. Lows will be in the 30s to near 40, which is a bit above normal. There are still some river flood warnings up for parts of NJ and CT. Please check your local media outlet for the latest from the NWS. Remember to turn your clocks ahead tonight. Daylight savings time begins at 2 AM. The sun will rise tomorrow at 711 AM EDT and set at 7 PM EDT. Short Term With the cold front thru tomorrow, we will still have a couple of surface trofs in its wake. The vort max to our N will slide E during the morning hours and should be out of the picture by late afternoon. Temps aloft will be chilly in the post frontal air mass as finally we get into some CAA since the sfc flow becomes NW. With the cold air aloft, it will promote cumulus/stratocumulus development as convective temps are easily reached with steep low-level lapse rates. With mixing up to 850 mb, highs will reach the upper 40s/low 50s across the region. There will also be some wind to contend with due to the deep mixing. The winds in the low-levels will be 25-30 knots, so some of that will mix to the sfc. This is most likely in areas that see more breaks of sunshine. Canadian high pressure will slowly build in tomorrow night. This will relax the winds in the low-levels a bit so the winds will abate. Another robust s/w trof will once again move into our region from the great lakes. It will be just to our NW by 12z MON. Models often are a bit on the dry side with the moisture with these things, and today is no different. Went with partly cloudy skies to cover it. Lows are colder with readings into the 20s in the burbs, with low/mid 30s for the city, the coast, and S NJ. For the start of the work week (MON), nothing really new to report from the prev forecast. The Canadian high will move closer to the region. The boundary to our S will have a frontal wave form on it with some rain down over the deep south. That system will be our next wx-maker. Temps on MON are cooler even tho we have good mixing to h85. Temps at that level are around -8C, and so highs will be in the 40s. With the s/w trof moving thru during the day, it should set off some SCT cumulus. Otherwise, a dry day is in store. The surface high starts to make a jaunt for the coast by MON night. Mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling, even in the urban areas. Widespread 20s for lows with temps close to our just under freezing for the urban areas. The pine barrens of long island may radiate into the teens in this setup. Long Term Still low confidence forecast for the long term. The one thing that looks likely is that the surface high will move off the coast and will usher in an onshore flow. Coastal areas will be much cooler than inland spots on TUE. Looking at mostly sunny skies but highs only in the 40s to near 50 (a little warmer inland). There is still some question with the next storm. There is better agreement today in the global models with respect to a s/w that dives into the mid south states and moves up to the OH valley later on TUE. All the while, another pacific system quickly moves ashore and is over the northern plains by 00z WED. With the southern s/w moving atop the boundary over the deep S, it will ehance rainfall there and try to pull a frontal wave up the coast. The issues come as to whether the 2 jet streams phase or not. Yesterday, the pacific system looked more dominant, and the guidance had a cold front moving in with minimal chances for precip on WED. Now with more interaction between the 2 systems, the focus is more twds a weak sfc low that rides up the coast and right over the NYC metro. With the GFS/Euro and ensembles in agreement on this, I upped pops to high chance for WED. The placement of the sfc low, and where it tracks, will have a big influence on the sfc temps for WED. Right now, I didn't go as high as the MOS has it, but I did increase temps a bit. Right now, it doesn't look like a big rain maker, however, any additional rainfall won't be good for the already swollen rivers across the region. That system exits for THU with clearing skies and milder temps close to 60 as we get into a bit of a deep SW flow around a high over the SE states. Went above the MOS in this regard. Another front approaches for the end of the week. The +NAO will be raging attm, so mild temps are likely into the weekend. The ensembles do show a return to a -NAO, but not for another couple of weeks. That may be our last shot at snow for the season. RC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 congrats to anybody who tracks models from now on, the 00z euro will be running at 2am. And on that note, here's the DGEX showing 65+ F temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Euro is a mega torch in the long range with a strong +NAO and GoA low: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 Friday is going to be a warm one if the guidance has the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 Euro is a mega torch in the long range with a strong +NAO and GoA low: Yup, it has us 60+ F next Friday and then 65+ the middle of that following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Yup, it has us 60+ F next Friday and then 65+ the middle of that following week. Yeah, Friday looks really mild on all the models with the low tracking to the north...NWS already has 60F for our high here in Dobbs Ferry. I think the Euro would get us to near 70F at Day 10 if it verified verbatim...850s are like +11C with southerly flow ahead of that low. If we could clear out for a while, it might be possible. Pattern still looks piss-poor for any snow chances, another mild March on the way. Thinking about planting the garden early this year with the progged pattern not suggesting any serious chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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