Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Groaaannn. I was expecting better Tony. Tsk tsk tsk. Congrats on being the "winner" for this round, Thundersnow! Thank you sir! got me a bit of breathing room lol hopefully I can keep the good rounds going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Chase 4. This one is due at 9 PM CST Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Will be on the road all today tomorrow, so I'll get this in now. Targeting some of the best chase territory in the country (IMO, anyway): Corn, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 T-minus 2 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 T-minus 2 hours... It probably was not a good idea having this due on a Friday night...IMO. I'll get to it if I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Carnegie, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 12, 2011 Author Share Posted March 12, 2011 It probably was not a good idea having this due on a Friday night...IMO. I'll get to it if I can. Yeah, I'll move it to 9 PM tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Yeah, I'll move it to 9 PM tomorrow evening. alrighty, well now I can go out tonight lol. I will have mine up around noon tomorrow probably since I'm going to the bulls game tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Ok, sticking my map in here before I'm out for the weekend. Target Area: Ponca City, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 First chase I've been able to spend some time on and decided to make an entry on - pulled out a high risk. Oklahoma, particularly Northern and North Central Oklahoma looks prime IMO. Never claimed to be great at this though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 First chase I've been able to spend some time on and decided to make an entry on - pulled out a high risk. Oklahoma, particularly Northern and North Central Oklahoma looks prime IMO. Never claimed to be great at this though I am thinking i might go a bit further north but nice graphics...... mine are plain awful, using the touchpad, but very nice touch, looks like it is broadcast/tv quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 I am thinking i might go a bit further north but nice graphics...... mine are plain awful, using the touchpad, but very nice touch, looks like it is broadcast/tv quality. Thanks. Graphic design is my hobby, so anytime I do weather graphics, I have to make them look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Here comes another fail map Target Oklahoma City, OK As for reasoning, I think this is your classic dryline setup with tornadic storms along dry line and along the warm front to the north also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Here comes another fail map Target Oklahoma City, OK As for reasoning, I think this is your classic dryline setup with tornadic storms along dry line and along the warm front to the north also. I dont know if I would call this a classic dryline setup..It's not really that tight at all with mid 60 dew points in central OK only dropping off to the 40's around AMA. I can possibly see this being a MDT risk. Nice steep mid level lapse rates between H5-H7 with good shear/abundant moisture and nice southerly-backed sfc winds. A strong H3 jet streak of 90kts observed at AMA at 12z. I am looking at southern KS right now but will fine tune tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 I dont know if I would call this a classic dryline setup..It's not really that tight at all with mid 60 dew points in central OK only dropping off to the 40's around AMA. I can possibly see this being a MDT risk. Nice steep mid level lapse rates between H5-H7 with good shear/abundant moisture and nice southerly-backed sfc winds. A strong H3 jet streak of 90kts observed at AMA at 12z. I am looking at southern KS right now but will fine tune tomorrow. Yeah you are right I was miss reading a few dewpoints, still a weak to moderate dryline though, just not as good as I originally saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 After looking at this while sleep deprived last night, my gut reaction was northern Oklahoma.... After eating some Fruity Pebbles... I have decided to deploy to Tonkawa, Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Target city: Harper, KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Whoo woo, just finished watching Sean Casey's IMAX film called Tornado Alley. Here is my map. Target: Arkansas City, KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Difficult chase case. Here's why: 1) Despite the strong flow at 300mb, the flow at 500mb isn't all that strong. Clearly this is a case of a strong Pacific jet carving out a beautiful broad trough in the western U.S., but at 12Z, this process is just beginning. I imagine a rather loose height contours at H5 with multiple areas of shortwave ridging and troughing, rather than the clear dynamic system of prior cases. 2) For some reason the EML doesn't seem that robust. The cap does not look super strong, and the dry air aloft is having a tough time mixing down to the sfc, with Td's behind the dryline in the 40's. All this with SW'ly 850's too, so one would expect better. 3) Notice that temps at OKC drop between 15Z and 18Z despite robust warm advection all around that area. A closer inspection with a magnifying glass indicates that this is a rain-cooled airmass as thunderstorms are in the vicinity. In fact, looking at other obs, there has been precip from Midland to Abilene to Dallas all morning, which may explain Point #2. Culprit appears to be a shortwave over W TX at 12Z. Of greater concern, in immediate areas around this band of precip, winds are veering. Nevertheless, the warm advection is amazing, and the winds in vicinity of the precip are backing. Is that precip induced, or something legit? But really, I haven't made any definitive conclusions yet. After all, winds could re-back, convection could lift out, etc. However, I'm going to be extra cautious about a southern target, given the veering winds around the precip and the area of precip itself (which could mean an area of subsidence nosing into that area later). This is all of course highly uncertain, and low-confidence. And I would hate to break with the OK-S KS consensus, because that usually means I'm wrong, and I am missing something significant; after all, the southern target doesn't look that bad otherwise. I would target N KS, but that missing ob near Concordia at 18Z makes me worrisome. If the sfc temps aren't going to rise enough up there the low-lvl lapse rates are going to be an issue up north. Lol, I'll post a target later. I will however go with an SPC categorical outlook of MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsoDerecho Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Winfield, KS is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 Difficult chase case. Here's why: 1) Despite the strong flow at 300mb, the flow at 500mb isn't all that strong. Clearly this is a case of a strong Pacific jet carving out a beautiful broad trough in the western U.S., but at 12Z, this process is just beginning. I imagine a rather loose height contours at H5 with multiple areas of shortwave ridging and troughing, rather than the clear dynamic system of prior cases. 2) For some reason the EML doesn't seem that robust. The cap does not look super strong, and the dry air aloft is having a tough time mixing down to the sfc, with Td's behind the dryline in the 40's. All this with SW'ly 850's too, so one would expect better. 3) Notice that temps at OKC drop between 15Z and 18Z despite robust warm advection all around that area. A closer inspection with a magnifying glass indicates that this is a rain-cooled airmass as thunderstorms are in the vicinity. In fact, looking at other obs, there has been precip from Midland to Abilene to Dallas all morning, which may explain Point #2. Culprit appears to be a shortwave over W TX at 12Z. Of greater concern, in immediate areas around this band of precip, winds are veering. Nevertheless, the warm advection is amazing, and the winds in vicinity of the precip are backing. Is that precip induced, or something legit? But really, I haven't made any definitive conclusions yet. After all, winds could re-back, convection could lift out, etc. However, I'm going to be extra cautious about a southern target, given the veering winds around the precip and the area of precip itself (which could mean an area of subsidence nosing into that area later). This is all of course highly uncertain, and low-confidence. And I would hate to break with the OK-S KS consensus, because that usually means I'm wrong, and I am missing something significant; after all, the southern target doesn't look that bad otherwise. I would target N KS, but that missing ob near Concordia at 18Z makes me worrisome. If the sfc temps aren't going to rise enough up there the low-lvl lapse rates are going to be an issue up north. Lol, I'll post a target later. I will however go with an SPC categorical outlook of MDT. You have a target Jim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Target: Beloit, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 kingman, ks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 Haha and all the last minute guesses roll in. I'll accept them until 9:15 CST since I didn't post a reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 Time is up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 Most of you guys played a little too far to the east. This was a prolific dryline tornado outbreak in western Oklahoma. The most notable tornadoes were the F3 near Elk City and the borderline F3/F4 that hit Cordell. None of you went for the equally fun Nebraska target, though... As the maps show, those of you who went along the KS/OK border got snake-bitten and snake-bitten badly (and unfortunately, that was a lot of you). As for outlook verification, I preferred moderate from NE to OK, but also accepted high risk as long as it was for the southern target, since there were 19 tornadoes there but 3 of them were F3. Chase 4 scores: brettjrob: 34 OHweather: 30 Stebo48858: 8 Chicago Storm: 7 TheWeatherPimp: 7 cmichweather: 4 *IndyMeso*: 4 IsoDerecho: 2 L.B. LaForce: 2 Thundersnow12: 2 thewxmann: 1 Overall scores: Thundersnow12: 91 brettjrob: 85 Chicago Storm: 54 thewxmann: 53 L.B. LaForce: 37 OHweather: 30 Stebo48858: 16 Kevin Askew: 11 cmichweather: 9 *IndyMeso*: 9 TheWeatherPimp: 7 IsoDerecho: 6 CandymanColumbusGA: 4 Chinook: 1 Chase 5 will be up later tonight and due at 9 PM CDT on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 None of you went for the equally fun Nebraska target, though... I shouldn't have second guessed myself...I was going to go with Aurora, NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Oops, lol I forgot to follow up on my post! Sorry Tony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 Chase 5...this one is quite a little change of pace. It'll be due 9 PM CDT Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Crap! Thought to myself at first glance western OK but changed that, oh well. Congrats to Brett! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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