tornadotony Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 One slight problem...if someone (like me) only wants to play a few of these events then there's basically no chance of getting to the championship round. Pick and choose, and forecast and chase, wisely ...this is a really good round to start in on with points being worth 1.5x the usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 One slight problem...if someone (like me) only wants to play a few of these events then there's basically no chance of getting to the championship round. one possible remedy.... we can rank by average points per round rather than total points. To be eligible one would have to had participated in at least half of the rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 one possible remedy.... we can rank by average points per round rather than total points. To be eligible one would have to had participated in at least half of the rounds. That sounds good...or we could due a tourney with seeds based off total points... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 I like the tourney idea actually...it gives everyone a chance at the championship while rewarding those who participate more/do well overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I like the tourney idea actually...it gives everyone a chance at the championship while rewarding those who participate more/do well overall. march madness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 march madness? Haha yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 About 6hr left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Pretty rough forecasting without surface data, IMO. I leaned fairly liberal due to the uncertainty, simply because that's one mother of a trough. Feels kind of like a shot in the dark, though. Target: Syracuse, NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This one is a bit tougher and I feel I am missing something but ill take a stab at it Target city, Kansas City MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Pretty rough forecasting without surface data, IMO. I leaned fairly liberal due to the uncertainty, simply because that's one mother of a trough. Feels kind of like a shot in the dark, though. Target: Syracuse, NE really nice looking moisture axis up into NE but agreed, its stinks not having the sfc maps to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Ok, back from town, and got my wxchallenge forecast in. Lemme go throw something together for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 really nice looking moisture axis up into NE but agreed, its stinks not having the sfc maps to look at. Trust me, I've looked and looked and looked, and I can't find a map that wouldn't basically give everything away. I don't own Digital Atmosphere, which would be really helpful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Trust me, I've looked and looked and looked, and I can't find a map that wouldn't basically give everything away. I don't own Digital Atmosphere, which would be really helpful... I'm still trying to figure this one out while I watch the heat/lakers game...actually hand analyzed most of the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Didnt spend a whole lot of time on this one, got things to do, but that sucks without sfc charts...lol. Anyways, target: Lawrence, KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Okay I'm adding this analyzed sfc map from Jon Finch's site. I took the date off and will credit the page when the contest is over. If this changes your forecast/location, that's fine. You still have until 9 PM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 i'll take that setup k thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsoDerecho Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 GRRRRRRRRRR stuck between a Hard place (Mizzouri) and a Rock (Kansas).......... Mound City, MO.....Although i also feel like i am missing something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Dont know why he has that as a cold front...its obviously a dryline and a good one at that with good heating behind it. Was liking the NE/IA border.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Target Emporia KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 That's some serious juice for what looks to be an April or early May type setup. New outlook is attached. I'll nudge my target a hair west to LNK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 After looking at some older events this evening while at work, Omaha will probably be my chase target and as Brett shows above, it will be a high risk. Map coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 I will say nobody has set up my joke yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Dangit, I need to change my map now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Looks like a late Apr/early May setup. Pretty classic, and I'm calling a High Risk for this one. Large gyre/closed low over Intermountain West. Cap looks fine. Notes based on upper air data alone 1) I'm going to make a basic assumption and say that the gyre doesn't move much between 12Z and 0Z. This is corroborated by the fact that the 925mb low doesn't move much east over the time period. Neither does that quasistationary front in the northern Plains... the low essentially slides up the front. So the shortwaves are going to be mobile agents, and one is analyzed in SW TX at 12Z, looking at H5 and H7 data. As this pivots around into the warm sector I am going to expect supercell initiation near the dryline around 21Z (maybe even a little earlier) from srn NE south to ctrl OK. Cap issues further south (assuming an early May setup, and cap difficulties with H7 temps > 10C), will limit my enthusiasm further south. 2) At first I was concerned about moisture depth given the sw'ly 850's, but the 0Z 925mb data clearly suggests moisture quality is a-okay, and sfc winds should not be death-veered. Dryline at 0Z seems to be aligned just west of I-35, so the I-35 corridor may be impacted very greatly. I feel like I could go just about anywhere and find a tornado lol. Preliminary target areas would be srn NE or NE KS closer to more backed winds but I am willing to go as far south as srn KS. After seeing the surface data.... Still an amazing setup! S NE/N KS seems like the place to go. Pretty nice zone of just a tad more backed winds, and dryline bulge is evident. The two very close barbs in ctrl KS indicate temps of nearly 90F... I can only IMAGINE the lapse rates with H5 temps between -10 and -15C. Nice convergence with those SW'ly winds bumping up against the SSE-SE winds up in NE. Subtle boundary draped NW-SE across KS, separating more backed flow from more southerly flow, may do something later. Initiation in Northern KS might very well be underway. What a play going on there... my target would be just NW, near Superior or Deshler, NE. (Climatology also likes this area for tornadoes). (But of course, every time I am enthusiastic about a setup, I get shot down, so be warned.) Map will be posted shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I will say nobody has set up my joke yet. You suck you know that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Looks like a late Apr/early May setup. Pretty classic, and I'm calling a High Risk for this one. Large gyre/closed low over Intermountain West. Cap looks fine. Notes based on upper air data alone 1) I'm going to make a basic assumption and say that the gyre doesn't move much between 12Z and 0Z. This is corroborated by the fact that the 925mb low doesn't move much east over the time period. Neither does that quasistationary front in the northern Plains... the low essentially slides up the front. So the shortwaves are going to be mobile agents, and one is analyzed in SW TX at 12Z, looking at H5 and H7 data. As this pivots around into the warm sector I am going to expect supercell initiation near the dryline around 21Z (maybe even a little earlier) from srn NE south to ctrl OK. Cap issues further south (assuming an early May setup, and cap difficulties with H7 temps > 10C), will limit my enthusiasm further south. 2) At first I was concerned about moisture depth given the sw'ly 850's, but the 0Z 925mb data clearly suggests moisture quality is a-okay, and sfc winds should not be death-veered. Dryline at 0Z seems to be aligned just west of I-35, so the I-35 corridor may be impacted very greatly. I feel like I could go just about anywhere and find a tornado lol. Preliminary target areas would be srn NE or NE KS closer to more backed winds but I am willing to go as far south as srn KS. After seeing the surface data.... Still an amazing setup! S NE/N KS seems like the place to go. Pretty nice zone of just a tad more backed winds, and dryline bulge is evident. The two very close barbs in ctrl KS indicate temps of nearly 90F... I can only IMAGINE the lapse rates with H5 temps between -10 and -15C. Nice convergence with those SW'ly winds bumping up against the SSE-SE winds up in NE. Subtle boundary draped NW-SE across KS, separating more backed flow from more southerly flow, may do something later. Initiation in Northern KS might very well be underway. What a play going on there... my target would be just NW, near Superior or Deshler, NE. (Climatology also likes this area for tornadoes). (But of course, every time I am enthusiastic about a setup, I get shot down, so be warned.) Map will be posted shortly. I need one county for the chase points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I need one county for the chase points. Nuckolls Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 22 minutes for forecasts/amendments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I probably went back and forth over my target 50 times...tough case. Would do a write up on why I chose here but I'm scrambling to find Bulls tickets for saturday. Target- O'Neill, NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 OK, I'll admit it I am rushing a bit on this since I have other things to attend to: Admittedly, looking at other peoples' entries, and relooking at the sfc map, the northern target near Sioux City may be very well prolific (and something I overlooked), but I wont change my map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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