tornadotony Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 One more hour! Jim, I will use your post for verification unless you have a map that you want to include. Just post it here if you get to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 One more hour! Jim, I will use your post for verification unless you have a map that you want to include. Just post it here if you get to it... Here it is.... pretty much in agreement with everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Hopefully I can get involved when I am less busy. One suggestion--there should be a way to send in submissions without posting. Humans are humans--and seeing previous submissions will undoubtedly have an influence on later submissions unless other posters don't look at the thread at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 And the contest is closed. Results shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Well to begin, every contestant went moderate risk. And every contestant was one level off. Here's why: Here are the wind and hail reports: This was a very intense early April tornado outbreak, that luckily stayed over mostly open areas. There were two fatalities in western Illinois, and four fatalities in the early morning F4 near Cincinnati. The F4s in southern Iowa were extremely large, up to and surpassing one mile wide, and extremely fast moving, moving at 60-65 MPH. Jim wins this round rather handedly. The first F4 touched down in Taylor County, where Bedford is located. Several surrounding counties also were hit by tornadoes. I gave either 1 or 2 points for everyone's outlooks. You only got 1 point if you missed much of the southern Iowa area. Overall, this one was about a 2 in terms of difficulty...cold core on steroids. SPC did well this day...moderate risk in SW IA and high risk s-central/SE IA, NE MO, and W IL. I will probably post another challenge later tonight. I think we'll do several of these through the spring and then have a championship round for the 2 or 3 highest scores. Current Standings: thewxmann: 28 points Thundersnow12: 14 points brettjrob: 13 points L.B. LaForce: 13 points Chicago Storm: 9 points Kevin Askew: 8 points Stebo48858: 6 points Chinook: 1 point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 This was cool Thank you for doing this! I was wondering about the clear/hazy METAR in Cape Girardeau. A cap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 *crosses fingers for such fortunate luck in future chase cases* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 *crosses fingers for such fortunate luck in future chase cases* Good job you pretty much nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Good job you pretty much nailed it Thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Major props to Jim for this round! I didn't fare as badly as I expected. Really lucked out in that I extended the SLGT just far enough E along the WF to catch most of the IN/OH stuff. Kind of funny how I thought I was being bold also pulling it back into extreme E NE for cold core, but it wasn't quite far enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 AHHH! lol I was thinking Red Oak, IA last night but went further east. Thats alright, I will take 2nd place right now lol nice job, Jim! thanks for doing this, Tony. Looking forward to the next case study! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 really an amazing radar loop of this event.. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=1999&month=4&day=8&hour=12&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Wow, that is some tight wrapping around the low really an amazing radar loop of this event.. http://mesonet.agron...our=12&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 New contest coming out shortly. It will be due Wednesday at 6 PM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 New case...if you didn't participate in case 1, please join in! We'll probably have a good 10 rounds or so before the championship, so please, join the fun! This case will be operated exactly like the last one. Due to the increasingly interesting threat developing for tomorrow, I'm placing the forecast deadline for this one at 6 PM CST Wednesday. Now for the maps...good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I think Mr. Tony here is trying to trick us with this one with a few possible areas? have been looking at this one since you posted it lol I like two areas right now, working on my maps since I have nothing else to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I decided to go more all out on this one given I was doing absolutely nothing tonight lol Well this one wasa bit more tricky IMO with two "BIG" areas that I saw analyzing these maps with one being a bigger than the other. We have strong southwesterly mid-level flow with H5 winds between 50-70kts and a strong LLJ at 50kt from southwest TX all the way up to OAX on the 12z roab soundings pumping up alot of moisture with a 850mb dew point of 17 at that site. You also can clearly see that on the sfc maps with 70 dew points from the gulf all the way up into freakin' Iowa by 18z. Now this sfc map was a bit harder with finding everything and putting the fronts in the right spot with the eastern warm front being on the top end of that scale. It looks like we have an occluded low up in ND with an occluded front arching southeastward with the warm front oriented NNW to SSE across IA and into MO/southern IL. From that occluded front there is a cold front crawling and almost stationary stretching southwestward across NE and into northwest and western KS. This cold front than hooks up with another weak sfc low somewhere along the CO/NM border (harder to see) with dryline/marfa front extending southward from it and slowly moving eastward. Target 1. southwest KS into the OK and TX PH region. You obviously have a trigger with abundant moisture into the upper 60's with the shear there for supercells. *If* that was my target I would hope that the dryline pushes further eastward into this area later on in the afternoon/evening. The thing I dont like about this area is the sfc winds and how they are veered along the cold front and unless you can get that dryline to push eastward and locally back the winds or have it bulge a bit and play the northeast side of it, I dont see that area being as good as my other area. I think you will get supercells in this area and possibly tornadoes, but think it's second best. Who knows maybe even further south on the dryline will fire in southwest TX down near Pecos. That area always seems to have something isolated when nobody expects it. Target 2. southeast MN into northeast IA. I think this area is a bit more conditional but think it could be big time if something can go up in the environment in place in that area. You have a slowly eastward moving warm front going through IA clearing it out and advecting juicy type dew points of 70 degrees or more into the area with its own warm sector with the cold front off to the west. The cap is not too strong in this area and with the mid-level jet streak looking to go over this area later in the day..and nicely backed sfc winds..I'd pick here over the other target. I was tempted to pick a town just north of the IA border cause I've never had good luck chasing IA but I decided differently. Target town: Mason City, IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 C'mon guys!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 ^Sorry, this case is a tough one and between studying and tracking the severe wx today, I just haven't had much time to look at things. Wow, this case looks so familiar to me, I can't put my finger on it though. At this point I will consider a MDT risk. Some notable features... 1) This looks like a May case. Note the northerly mid-level/upper-level winds over the east coast... but yet dewpoints are still pushing 65-70 in many areas (Td of 70+ all the way to IA!). That can't happen early in the year. On the other hand, the cloudy/cool conditions along the west coast and the *relatively* cool mid-level temps suggest to me this is not yet a June scenario. The upshot is that being mid-late May, it won't take much to create tornadoes. 2) As for the synoptic setup, the 180 degree turning of mid/UL wind vectors along the west coast immediately jumps out at me, as well as the easterly wind vectors in the PAC NW. I can feel kinda a rex (or other) block up there. However the block *seems* to be opening up and the energy (either in the form of a trough or a closed low) ejecting out... low confidence because I am having difficulty discerning CA sfc data (aside from the rainfall reported in the Central Valley), but lee cyclogenesis is already commencing in SW KS, as noted by modest pressure falls in the vicinity and backing of the winds in CO at 18Z. These setups can prove annoying cap-wise, and there's a stout ridge over the SE that extends west into TX. Winds are veering at 18Z across the Panhandles, but they may re-back before 0Z. More importantly, the ejecting trough/closed low might be able to pump up heights ahead of it, which also does not bode well for cap. Neither does the southerly jet at H7. Assuming late May, the 12C H7 temp at LUB is already unfavorable for surface-based initiation. Any hope of a southern target area rests on the triple point. 3) Unfortunately, the northern target area doesn't look that much better. Quasistationary front is evident and winds are veering along the front. The SW'ly LLJ is mixing out all the moisture, and flow aloft is running parallel to the front. LCL's are quickly becoming prohibitive in many areas. By nature I would choose a target area with stronger low-level backing and lower T/Td spreads.... i.e. southern MN. So in essence, both targets have significant downfalls. The reason I am going MDT is I believe the significant moisture, timing of the year, and SW'ly flow will ultimately lend itself into a MDT risk scenario by the SPC. I don't think I'll have time to create a good map, but it would look something like Thundersnow's (I didn't take his forecast into consideration however). As for target, these events usually end up doing more for the Southern Plains than for the Northern Plains, so I will throw darts and say Ashland, KS near the TP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I was really close to picking the southern target, maybe somewhere in the northern TX PH and play the triple point as sfc winds at AMA were starting to back but temps were climbing fast and worries of high bases (LBB sitting at 84/63 at 18z) and the cap pushed me away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Yeah, will get mine up later. Not too keen on the northern target due to the more SWerly H85's. Probably will pick a target near the triple point further south. Lots of moisture, but im not sure it will warrant a MDT risk. I made an extremely rough sketch of H7 temps here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I was really close it picking the southern target, maybe somewhere in the northern TX PH and play the triple point as sfc winds at AMA were starting to back but temps were climbing fast and worries of high bases (LBB sitting at 84/63 at 18z) and the cap pushed me away. And likewise, I was really close to picking the northern target in srn MN if weren't for those SW'ly 850's. I could see either target producing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Tony, Chi storm is working till 7 30pm and wanted me to ask you about extending the deadline to maybe 9pm so he could do it when he got home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 3 more hours left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Still am not fully confident on a MDT risk, and it may come back to bite me, but oh well. I like the 300mb diffluence of the northern target, but definitely not the H85's. Not a huge fan of the sfc winds of the southern target, and the 9C at H7 I think will be breakable. Like thewxmann said though, both areas have their negatives. Target: Rochester, MN Another target for me would be Montezuma, KS, but I don't have clones of myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 If I understand the rules correctly, there's no penalty for chasing and busting? (Must not be a case from the past few years with gas prices...) If that's the case, what the hell... I'll go with DBQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 If I understand the rules correctly, there's no penalty for chasing and busting? (Must not be a case from the past few years with gas prices...) If that's the case, what the hell... I'll go with DBQ. That's right, there is no penalty for busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Tony, Chi storm is working till 7 30pm and wanted me to ask you about extending the deadline to maybe 9pm so he could do it when he got home? Yeah sure. I think that's fair since we only have 4 entries thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsoDerecho Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Well, since I also cannot be in two places at once, I personally would be in the Minnesota/Iowa boarder. The potential storms in the Texas/OK Panhandle was what I would have really wanted, but that silly cap kept saying "NO". So I chose Manchester, MN. 1) Because i am not a fan of Iowa storms 2) Its right near the I-90/I-35 Junction just in case something did break out to my south or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Well, since I also cannot be in two places at once, I personally would be in the Minnesota/Iowa boarder. The potential storms in the Texas/OK Panhandle was what I would have really wanted, but that silly cap kept saying "NO". So I chose Manchester, MN. 1) Because i am not a fan of Iowa storms 2) Its right near the I-90/I-35 Junction just in case something did break out to my south or east. Welcome! Do you have an outlook area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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