Weigh in on the March 11-12th system along the East Coast

[Typhoon Tip]

The current consensus is for a partially closed 500mb surface to then lift up the Coast from ~ the Va Capes to the GOM. This is typically ideal for producing a nor'easters.

March is fickle. There are so many nuanced possibilities in this, I almost am at a loss as to where to begin. First of all, the actual depth to which any such closure ultimately achieves will be related to the strength of the dynamics set to relay off the eastern Pacific in 3 days. Deterministic model solutions will waver on that potency [probably] with greater stochastic results both individually, but amongst one another, until that happens. One should not let a given model solution guide their opinion of the system in the meantime. If more dynamic strength in available to the southern stream, naturally that would impose a deeper deep level tropospheric response, but also opens the door for dynamic/marginality to become a player as the system gains latitude up the Coast. If less, much of this becomes less necessary to even discuss.

That is the trick with the fickleness of March - often it is an all or nothing type of ordeal ...

The other aspect is the weaker overall baroclinic vibe given by the deterministic runs (I'm hitting deterministic hard here merely because I have yet to see the ensemble mean beyond a glance). That is having an impact of the current depicted strength of surface to 850mb level cyclogenesis. What puzzles me a little there is that we have a 1040+ mb large spatially sprawled polar high nosing down to the MA from N NE and eastern Ontario as the primary scoots to its death in the GL (and I don't believe that primary will be the whole shabang with the trough evolution). Usually said configuration of features enhances baroclinicity along the MA and NE coastal regions, because you have cold gradient N to S with an ENE fetch setting up... Yet the models are entirely blase about the horizontal thickness gradient and that seems a little off to me. As the mid level vortex then closes off near the VA Capes, that's usually powdered cyclogenesis...just add water. That "banded" cyclone model product someone once posted, the one that labeled on the jet fields amid a typical coastal storm is the ideal facsimile here (I just don't have that annotation on my system).

We are in the early seasonality where teleconnectors become less useful. As the zygote warm season matures, the wave lengths become shorter ... the flow over all more nebulous and "spaghetti logic' in appearance (ooph, I haven't eaten yet today). Statistical packages begin to break down because the conservation of mass everywhere is resolved at smaller and smaller spatial intervals. In lay-terms, having NAO heights higher or lower over the Davis Straight has less correlation to imposing anomalies locally. This is in part why "bowling season" has its distinction, because these cut-offs and there magic are entirely orchestrated within the local domain they affect; whereas the on-going larger scale teleconnectors have become disconnected because the wave lengths have shortened just enough such that mass-conservation is controlled at small scales (to re-iterate). I think, ..or presume rather, that it is too early in that transition season to assess less correlation just yet. With that, the PNA is spiking to nearly +1SD going forward over the next 3 or 4 days, and that does time rather well with at least transient western N/A ridge. This signal is much less obvious at CDC - there may be some usefulness in determining why by I haven't expended any thought there. The NAO is fairly statically positive around +.5SD ...but perhaps slowly falling - not enough of a differential though to argue for much influence.

That generally should cover it - those pesky nuanced possibilities et al should fit fairly well into this conceptualized overview of the system after the current snow eater.

[CoastalWx]

The current consensus is for a partially closed 500mb surface to then lift up the Coast from ~ the Va Capes to the GOM. This is typically ideal for producing a nor'easters.

March is fickle. There are so many nuanced possibilities in this, I almost am at a loss as to where to begin. First of all, the actual depth to which any such closure ultimately achieves will be related to the strength of the dynamics set to relay off the eastern Pacific in 3 days. Deterministic model solutions will waver on that potency [probably] with greater stochastic results both individually, but amongst one another, until that happens. One should not let a given model solution guide their opinion of the system in the meantime. If more dynamic strength in available to the southern stream, naturally that would impose a deeper deep level tropospheric response, but also opens the door for dynamic/marginality to become a player as the system gains latitude up the Coast. If less, much of this becomes less necessary to even discuss.

That is the trick with the fickleness of March - often it is an all or nothing type of ordeal ...

The other aspect is the weaker overall baroclinic vibe given by the deterministic runs (I'm hitting deterministic hard here merely because I have yet to see the ensemble mean beyond a glance). That is having an impact of the current depicted strength of surface to 850mb level cyclogenesis. What puzzles me a little there is that we have a 1040+ mb large spatially sprawled polar high nosing down to the MA from N NE and eastern Ontario as the primary scoots to its death in the GL (and I don't believe that primary will be the whole shabang with the trough evolution). Usually said configuration of features enhances baroclinicity along the MA and NE coastal regions, because you have cold gradient N to S with an ENE fetch setting up... Yet the models are entirely blase about the horizontal thickness gradient and that seems a little off to me. As the mid level vortex then closes off near the VA Capes, that's usually powdered cyclogenesis...just add water. That "banded" cyclone model product someone once posted, the one that labeled on the jet fields amid a typical coastal storm is the ideal facsimile here (I just don't have that annotation on my system).

We are in the early seasonality where teleconnectors become less useful. As the zygote warm season matures, the wave lengths become shorter ... the flow over all more nebulous and "spaghetti logic' in appearance (ooph, I haven't eaten yet today). Statistical packages begin to break down because the conservation of mass everywhere is resolved at smaller and smaller spatial intervals. In lay-terms, having NAO heights higher or lower over the Davis Straight has less correlation to imposing anomalies locally. This is in part why "bowling season" has its distinction, because these cut-offs and there magic are entirely orchestrated within the local domain they affect; whereas the on-going larger scale teleconnectors have become disconnected because the wave lengths have shortened just enough such that mass-conservation is controlled at small scales (to re-iterate). I think, ..or presume rather, that it is too early in that transition season to assess less correlation just yet. With that, the PNA is spiking to nearly +1SD going forward over the next 3 or 4 days, and that does time rather well with at least transient western N/A ridge. This signal is much less obvious at CDC - there may be some usefulness in determining why by I haven't expended any thought there. The NAO is fairly statically positive around +.5SD ...but perhaps slowly falling - not enough of a differential though to argue for much influence.

That generally should cover it - those pesky nuanced possibilities et al should fit fairly well into this conceptualized overview of the system after the current snow eater.

The cutoff disaster season certainly beginning to show.

Regarding the baroclinic talk, it's too bad the primary floods the east coast with milder air because low pressure would have a field day, if it were a normal transfer of power to the secondary low. I think the warmer temps over the east coast just prior to the secondary forming tempers the low for now.

It's also starting to have that narrow frontal or even WCB look to the low pressure with heavy rain along the strong convergence area near the front, and even signs of sheet rain due to a TROWAL feature over us. That storm should be watched for anyone with water concerns imo.

[ORH_wxman]

Next week might finish off whatever snow pack survives this current storm in SNE. Its not looking very promising. Looks like almost a sick repeat of last March with a monster cutoff and cold rain.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Avg snowpack of 28" when I arrived up here in Claremont, NH......25-31". Big crust of ice eveident from what must have been a rather substantial glaze this past week.

Down to an avg depth of 25", now....

[CoastalWx]

Next week might finish off whatever snow pack survives this current storm in SNE. Its not looking very promising. Looks like almost a sick repeat of last March with a monster cutoff and cold rain.

Looked cold enough at the onset for you, but then turns into another chilly rain event.

[ORH_wxman]

Looked cold enough at the onset for you, but then turns into another chilly rain event.

Yeah I wasn't even counting that stuff at the beginning. It might not even happen like that given that most of the moisture is still west of us when the CAD is trying to hold. The orientation of these troughs are putrid...they basically render the tough 1040-1045mb highs useless by the time the precip actually starts. The hope is that the southern stream rips strong and digs further SE almost creating a pseudo block in NE Canada like Dec '92 did....that would hold enough cold air in for a blue snow bomb, but I'm not holding my breath at all.

I've pretty much resigned that one to being a rain event except maybe at the onset.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I wasn't even counting that stuff at the beginning. It might not even happen like that given that most of the moisture is still west of us when the CAD is trying to hold. The orientation of these troughs are putrid...they basically render the tough 1040-1045mb highs useless by the time the precip actually starts. The hope is that the southern stream rips strong and digs further SE almost creating a pseudo block in NE Canada like Dec '92 did....that would hold enough cold air in for a blue snow bomb, but I'm not holding my breath at all.

I've pretty much resigned that one to being a rain event except maybe at the onset.

This is precisely what I was getting at, exactly!

Did you get a load of the 20-30" bible bomb on the 300 hour panel of the GFS.

[nzucker]

Yeah I wasn't even counting that stuff at the beginning. It might not even happen like that given that most of the moisture is still west of us when the CAD is trying to hold. The orientation of these troughs are putrid...they basically render the tough 1040-1045mb highs useless by the time the precip actually starts. The hope is that the southern stream rips strong and digs further SE almost creating a pseudo block in NE Canada like Dec '92 did....that would hold enough cold air in for a blue snow bomb, but I'm not holding my breath at all.

I've pretty much resigned that one to being a rain event except maybe at the onset.

Couldn't this be a snowstorm, Will, if the initial primary low brings the front past us and then the cut-off forms? It looks as if the GFS wants to stall the front out at like 120hrs instead of its progressing eastward, then it has a TROWAL feature that impacts the NYC/SNE region with +RN. Is it possible we could get the cutter past us and still have the lingering 500mb energy form the coastal? I noticed that the 12z GFS started to show some "bubbles" of <0C 850s behind the cut-off whereas the 0z didn't really; could it start picking up more on this and turn the event into an elevation snowstorm for the Poconos or something like October 2009 or early March of last year? Any similarities to those events?

[Typhoon Tip]

Just when things could not be any gloomier for the locals of SNE, the models defy all odds and make it that much worse.

I don't think I have ever seen a more putrid series of charts from the deterministic ECM and the GFS. These overnight runs have managed to destroy any hope of weather-related joy for either end of the spectrum, and for those in the middle - everyone, unilaterally, is targeted for cosmic dildo by those runs.

Truly, incredible. Usually there is at least one person that can derive some semblance of happy-times from a given majority-ruled bad era of weather, but this just is an utter extinction event.

I wonder if the utter absence of hope and joy can be hope and joy in its self? Seriously, let's think about this for a moment. Can we contest the fates - as it were - in challenging these runs to succeed at even greater degrees in misery horror? Let's see if the 12z GFS can up the pumping speed of the cosmic dildo. This could be fun!

Jesus - I wish I never looked this morning. Humor aside, really....I mean it, I do not recall a more sombre series of model depictions in my life. Never. This takes first place over some of those blase patterns even in the late 1980s - and for those old enough to recall, that was unmittigatingly depressing. This crushes that. No one benefits from this pattern, the warm wanters, the can't let winter goers, the just want springers....naddo, zilch, no one. You are all getting the wrong pattern for what brings you joy - really, it is kind of remarkable that could happen when you think about it.

Well, that about sums it up for me - although, I'll go on record as saying, this latest series also pretty much nails down the reality that winter has been over for many weeks for us locally. And what actually adds to the unfairness of it, that affectation is really restricted to us locally, considering what just happened SW-W-NW and N of us, we've been singled out by the fractiles of chaos.

Basically the weather was really really nice to us, and then ... out of the blue, went f*ck you like a date with some unpredictable psycho b**ch with an errant vector for a tampon.

I was musing to my self in route to the office this morning, that if chaos had an agenda to steal moments of your life away, the process of instilling hope and failing to deliver could not have been more brilliantly achieved since ...oh, say Feb 10th... I no some would argue that 3" here, and a fleeting ice event there, could somehow refute this sentiment. Perhaps. Not for me though. I chose no delusion over despair. When you juxtapose the Dec 25 - Feb 10th period of time against the last month, AND, what has just teased to the brink of quontom tollerance with this latest nightmare, you'd simply have to be insane to see it any other way.

Welp... 20 minutes to go time on GFS' next installment of elaborate and seemingly unattainably painful dildo pump -

wah wah waaaaah

[CoastalWx]

Just when things could not be any gloomier for the locals of SNE, the models defy all odds and make it that much worse.

I don't think I have ever seen a more putrid series of charts from the deterministic ECM and the GFS. These overnight runs have managed to destroy any hope of weather-related joy for either end of the spectrum, and for those in the middle - everyone, unilaterally, is targeted for cosmic dildo by those runs.

Truly, incredible. Usually there is at least one person that can derive some semblance of happy-times from a given majority-ruled bad era of weather, but this just is an utter extinction event.

I wonder if the utter absence of hope and joy can be hope and joy in its self? Seriously, let's think about this for a moment. Can we contest the fates - as it were - in challenging these runs to succeed at even greater degrees in misery horror? Let's see if the 12z GFS can up the pumping speed of the cosmic dildo. This could be fun!

Jesus - I wish I never looked this morning. Humor aside, really....I mean it, I do not recall a more sombre series of model depictions in my life. Never. This takes first place over some of those blase patterns even in the late 1980s - and for those old enough to recall, that was unmittigatingly depressing. This crushes that. No one benefits from this pattern, the warm wanters, the can't let winter goers, the just want springers....naddo, zilch, no one. You are all getting the wrong pattern for what brings you joy - really, it is kind of remarkable that could happen when you think about it.

Well, that about sums it up for me - although, I'll go on record as saying, this latest series also pretty much nails down the reality that winter has been over for many weeks for us locally. And what actually adds to the unfairness of it, that affectation is really restricted to us locally, considering what just happened SW-W-NW and N of us, we've been singled out by the fractiles of chaos.

Basically the weather was really really nice to us, and then ... out of the blue, went f*ck you like a date with some unpredictable psycho b**ch with an errant vector for a tampon.

I was musing to my self in route to the office this morning, that if chaos had an agenda to steal moments of your life away, the process of instilling hope and failing to deliver could not have been more brilliantly achieved since ...oh, say Feb 10th... I no some would argue that 3" here, and a fleeting ice event there, could somehow refute this sentiment. Perhaps. Not for me though. I chose no delusion over despair. When you juxtapose the Dec 25 - Feb 10th period of time against the last month, AND, what has just teased to the brink of quontom tollerance with this latest nightmare, you'd simply have to be insane to see it any other way.

Welp... 20 minutes to go time on GFS' next installment of elaborate and seemingly unattainably painful dildo pump -

wah wah waaaaah

Yeah certainly crappy set of runs. Not even frisbee weather for the hippies. Sometimes it's these patterns...where just when everyone is ready to pack it in..a nice ridge bubbles up out west and a late season snow event is born. We'll see..if it's over..then it's over. This winter certainly was much, much better than I would have thought. Chances are there for a weak Nina next year so perhaps we get another good one.

[klw]

Do the runs look any better for up this way? The BTV write up makes it sound like a mixed bag but it is hard to tell how much qpf we are talking about during the event. Hopefully it will track further SE like everything has this year.

[ApacheTrout]

Basically the weather was really really nice to us, and then ... out of the blue, went f*ck you like a date with some unpredictable psycho b**ch with an errant vector for a tampon.

I was musing to my self in route to the office this morning, that if chaos had an agenda to steal moments of your life away, the process of instilling hope and failing to deliver could not have been more brilliantly achieved since ...oh, say Feb 10th... I no some would argue that 3" here, and a fleeting ice event there, could somehow refute this sentiment. Perhaps. Not for me though. I chose no delusion over despair. When you juxtapose the Dec 25 - Feb 10th period of time against the last month, AND, what has just teased to the brink of quontom tollerance with this latest nightmare, you'd simply have to be insane to see it any other way.

Welp... 20 minutes to go time on GFS' next installment of elaborate and seemingly unattainably painful dildo pump -

wah wah waaaaah

Woah, Tip. Take a step back. You're letting March weather b**ch slap you around. It's time to accept the , put the away the , get out the , and prepare for the . It may be ugly, but it's okay.

[Typhoon Tip]

Woah, Tip. Take a step back. You're letting March weather b**ch slap you around. It's time to accept the , put the away the , get out the , and prepare for the . It may be ugly, but it's okay.

Nope - try again. That parade of emotocons doesn't change the reality of what those model runs offered.

Hey, I have no dogs in this race - I know it sounds hypocritical, but I really want to see how miserable the runs can get. It's actually darkly humorous for me.

But I am also a realist. And that post is more reflective of what is factuallly on the table, much less how I personally "feel" about it.

Scott, actually... My buddy T-Bone and I went to Barre Falls on Saturday morning in wind whipped mist, and managed 18 holes of Disk Golf with snow shoes over 20" of granulated winter corpes. The downside is that I have a resulting injury to my right foot that - that's what sours my dispostion. Not this failed attempt by a mercilously repulsive weather god. hahaha. Eh, what can you do... But, point is, it takes a lot to keep us hippsters down.

[Damage In Tolland]

Nope - try again. That parade of emotocons doesn't change the reality of what those model runs offered.

Hey, I have no dogs in this race - I know it sounds hypocritical, but I really want to see how miserable the runs can get. It's actually darkly humorous for me.

But I am also a realist. And that post is more reflective of what is factuallly on the table, much less how I personally "feel" about it.

Scott, actually... My buddy T-Bone and I went to Barre Falls on Saturday morning in wind whipped mist, and managed 18 holes of Disk Golf with snow shoes over 20" of granulated winter corpes. The downside is that I have a resulting injury to my right foot that - that's what sours my dispostion. Not this failed attempt by a mercilously repulsive weather god. hahaha. Eh, what can you do... But, point is, it takes a lot to keep us hippsters down.

T bone??????

[bobbutts]

Do the runs look any better for up this way? The BTV write up makes it sound like a mixed bag but it is hard to tell how much qpf we are talking about during the event. Hopefully it will track further SE like everything has this year.

bump (for N. VT)

looks like the fork has already been stuck in it locally for me

[Organizing Low]

T bone??????

[40/70 Benchmark]

T bone??????

Poor OL.....I'm convinced that we'll be 90* in July with swampazz and he'll still be smoking cold, dry cirrus.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jesus, John....lol

It hasn't been all bad.....that clipper that overproduced was awesme and I'm satisifed with this season.

I got my KU and an it came in a cold epic period as a nice added bonus.....true to my word, no more bit*****....until next year.....lol

[CoastalWx]

Jesus, John....lol

It hasn't been all bad.....that clipper that overproduced was awesme and I'm satisifed with this season.

I got my KU and an it came in a cold epic period as a nice added bonus.....true to my word, no more bit*****....until next year.....lol

Might not be needed if we have a weak Nina...lol.

I'll b*tch a bit if March is a dud.

[Organizing Low]

Poor OL.....I'm convinced that we'll be 90* in July with swampazz and he'll still be smoking cold, dry cirrus.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Might not be needed if we have a weak Nina...lol.

I'll b*tch a bit if March is a dud.

I guess, but we just got all of our alloted seasonal snowfall condensed into a cold, 1 month period in the dead of winter, so I can understand if winter punches out a bit early.....maybe it's just me, but losing out on a few 5" events that were destined to roast under an MLB postseason sun is fine by me, all things considered.....

[40/70 Benchmark]

How much did you get....

I'm guessing you are more in my camp, than the "give me 2-5" every week and keep it cold" camp in which Kev resides.

Gimme a huge one month every season and let the rest go to hell.

[CoastalWx]

I guess, but we just got all of our alloted seasonal snowfall condensed into a cold, 1 month period in the dead of winter, so I can understand if winter punches out a bit early.....maybe it's just me, but losing out on a few 5" events that were destined to roast under an MLB postseason sun is fine by me, all things considered.....

I like to keep it going into March. March is one of the worst months of the year, if there is no action. Even if it's a nice 3-5" deal..fine by me.

That said, the euro has a nice miller b nuke d6-7..lol.

[jconsor]

The Euro pattern day 6-7 is a classic example of how wavelength shortening this time of year can lead to amplification.

I like to keep it going into March. March is one of the worst months of the year, if there is no action. Even if it's a nice 3-5" deal..fine by me.

That said, the euro has a nice miller b nuke d6-7..lol.

[Organizing Low]

How much did you get....

I'm guessing you are more in my camp, than the "give me 2-5" every week and keep it cold" camp in which Kev resides.

Gimme a huge one month every season and let the rest go to hell.

defintely agree, im all about the big storm and then put me in florida in between.

exception is that i am big on snowpack (once we get to >2 feet, i'm all about continuing to build on it, then i shift to kevins camp).....

if its less than 2 feet, then it doesnt do much for me. this year has been a stagnant 16-25 much of the year and still there, so very blue ballish really lol. this weekend was a perfect example, 8 or 9 inches of total snow but only after 1.5 inches of rain before it with temps in the mid 40s, so only a small net gain, lol.

when i was living down in NYC/CT, i was all about the big storm because snowpacks never seemed to materialize..

but i would have loved the 1 month you guys got with the storms+ snowpack >30 inches, defintely makes a winter worth it.... too bad it couldnt have kept going for a while longer.

i did enjoy this weekends weather though, it was a lot of fun up here. i chased the changeover in ottawa saturday, and the conditions there sat nite were some of the best i have ever experienced for a rain-snow transition, just awesome and thrilling for weenies like us lol.

then got back in time yesterday for the part 2 snow here today.

[Damage In Tolland]

I like to keep it going into March. March is one of the worst months of the year, if there is no action. Even if it's a nice 3-5" deal..fine by me.

That said, the euro has a nice miller b nuke d6-7..lol.

Lock it

[CoastalWx]

The Euro pattern day 6-7 is a classic example of how wavelength shortening this time of year can lead to amplification.

Yeah precisely. Any potential events probably won't be sniffed out until 5 days out or so.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah precisely. Any potential events probably won't be sniffed out until 5 days out or so.

The GFS hinted at this yesterday, but it could easily trend back north again.

[CT Rain]

Yeah precisely. Any potential events probably won't be sniffed out until 5 days out or so.

The Thursday/Friday event could be interesting in terms of hydro issues (where's Ginx?) if we can get this thing to slow down any.

[Typhoon Tip]

Jesus, John....lol

It hasn't been all bad.....that clipper that overproduced was awesme and I'm satisifed with this season.

I got my KU and an it came in a cold epic period as a nice added bonus.....true to my word, no more bit*****....until next year.....lol

Wait, I didn't say anything about this last winter though - sure. Agreed. Any above average winter in snow and cold is good if you are a winter weather enthusiast.

That was all regarding what the 00z model suite was painting.

That said, all one need to do is b**ch and complain the loudest and viola - the 12z 240 hour GFS is pubic hair away from something Biblical... So that character of satan's poop model runs swung pretty wildly toward angel bush.