tombo82685 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Good question...oh, and how come sharp cutoffs have suddenly gone away? because you don't have a cold high pressure up north with lots of dry air. Also different storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Feels nasty already. Damp chill factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 It's not going to snow. I know it's not going to snow. But it sure "feels" like snow out there this afternoon. Current temp 40.3. Everything is up and off the basement floor. Nothing to do now but await the flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Radar not looking to impressive. Currently precipitation shield is more broken up then solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Radar not looking to impressive. Currently precipitation shield is more broken up then solid. The southern moisture associated with the t-storm complex is running off the coast. I gather that the front itself will have at least a couple lows form along it and organize precip. Otherwise, you are correct that it looks disorganized at this time. Plenty of time to get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 None of the models have any of the heavy stuff moving in until during the day tomorrow. Lets not start with how unimpressive this looks, everything is on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 None of the models have any of the heavy stuff moving in until during the day tomorrow. Lets not start with how unimpressive this looks, everything is on schedule. I don't believe anyone said that it wasn't on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Radar not looking to impressive. Currently precipitation shield is more broken up then solid. Not all that surprising so far as the low-level southeasterly jet ramps up later tonight with increasing WAA. This along with incoming stronger lift and convergence will allow the precipitation to develop and expand especially on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 None of the models have any of the heavy stuff moving in until during the day tomorrow. Lets not start with how unimpressive this looks, everything is on schedule. Now you had to know that someone was going to post it. It happens with every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Now you had to know that someone was going to post it. It happens with every storm. They're doing the same thing in the NYC thread too. I get that not a lot of people like rain storms, but lets not downplay it like this is only going to be some nuisance rainstorm. IF everything comes together as modeled, a lot of people in the Delaware Valley are going to have major issues come tomorrow and Friday. Now I'm just talking in general, so don't everybody get all jumpy, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fire39a Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 people along the delaware river need to build an ark. i am not liking this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 What about people on the Neshaminy Creek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fire39a Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 everyone who lives near a creek or a river build an ark. ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 everyone who lives near a creek or a river build an ark. ryan hb a canal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Those unimpressed people need to help bale out those in Easton. They are misinformed and misaligned about the seriousness of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Per e-wall 00z NAM has 5.78" max in poconos .http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_0z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Per e-wall 00z NAM has 5.78" max in poconos .http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_0z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Text soundings at KMMU down to 3.03" instead of 3.80". You can see why now looking at e-wall the soundings were coming back higher than the NCEP QPF graphics were indicating. That second little maxima shifted just a few miles west of Morristown on this run. Still think 2-4" of rain looks like a good forecast for the Passaic River basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 How reliable is the e-wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 930 PM EST WED MAR 09 2011 ...VALID 03Z THU MAR 10 2011 - 00Z FRI MAR 11 2011... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... UPDATE... THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS DECREASED ON THE SRN EDGE ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS..WITH THE THREAT REGION CONFINED ACRS THE MID ATL WHERE FFG VALUES ARE LOWEST. PCPN THIS EVENING IS SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE THAT HAS PUSHED ACRS THE SOUTH AND INTO FL. HOWEVER...PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF PUSHING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THU. AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX VALUES...2 TO 3 STD ABOVE THE MEAN...EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF THESE HT FALLS ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN SEABOARD ON THU. THIS FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS...INCREASINGLY STRONG BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OVR THE MID ATL AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVEMENT AND/OR TRAINING OF PCPN ALONG THE STRONG BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE AXIS WL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WITH GENERAL MODEL AGRMNT ON 1-2"+ AMTS. WITH SOILS SATURATED FROM RECENT RAIN AND SNOW MELT...RUNOFF ISSUES ARE LIKELY ACRS THE MID ATL. ORAVEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The Susquehanna River is expected to crest at 31 feet in Wilkes-Barre saturday morning. That's in the major flood stage level. Levees are 41feet high but as they say here in the valley up da line and down da line, many communities (like mine in Pittston) don't have the levee system. Watch out Shickshinny and Pittston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'm the guy who asks stupid questions around here so I'm not ashamed to ask that if a Flood Watch is in effect, there's no need for a Flash Flood Watch, I'm guessing? They don't separate out the two into different products simultaneously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 That's some pretty nasty looking stuff in VA...headed right towards the Delaware River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 That's some pretty nasty looking stuff in VA...headed right towards the Delaware River. And there's the front starting to set up, and moisture is starting to stream north along it. Like I was saying to the people saying this looks unimpressive, it hasn't even begun yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 I assume that the HRRR is overdoing the precip like usual, but the latest run brings over 1" of rain in by 16z (11am) Although even the sim radar doesn't really support such a high amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 How reliable is the e-wall? It's an accurate representation of what the NAM is spitting out. I like it and use it a fair bit in my model looking when it comes to getting the NAM's take on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Thanks phlwx! 0.14" already this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 as of 5:45AM: .28" in Martins Creek (7 mi. N. of Easton); .34" in Easton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 0.77" already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 .44 here now. So it looks like at present rate of about .13 /hr, we will hit 1inch by 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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