fire39a Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 why is binghamton not issuing any flood watches for my area of pennsylvania.they must be good at downplaying events. ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Woah with the ground already saturated and more rain coming, all we need now is some wind to start uprooting these already loose trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Woah with the ground already saturated and more rain coming, all we need now is some wind to start uprooting these already loose trees. Won't take much wind now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Flood watches extended for all of New Jersey. Also, the new RGEM puts out 4"+ in a huge swath of Eastern PA. The Schuylkill River looks to be in trouble. River forecast for the Raritan at Bound Brook: (Would begin flooding Main Street) River forecast for the Passaic River at Pine Brook: (nearing record stage) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 gfs drops 3.96" on PNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fire39a Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 not looking good at all now. we might some problems on the delaware river now come friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 not looking good at all now. we might some problems on the delaware river now come friday More like will...probably on the lines of the Ivan flooding in '04 (at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fire39a Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 april of 05 was bad up in pike county. i am in the westfall township fire department ,we had to evacuate people from areas along the river and also had to rescue people who drove through flooded roads. i had 4 days of no sleep doing flood cleanup. i dont want to see that again. ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 gfs drops 3.96" on PNE You're so PA-centric, I haven't seen NJ in your QPF lists for a while Here's some regional totals thru 60 hours (I should leave PA out but I won't ) SID NAM GFS MPO 3.84 3.52 ABE 2.99 3.45 RDG 3.18 3.54 TTN 2.18 2.50 PHL 2.37 2.61 ILG 2.48 2.93 ACY 1.39 1.48 GED 1.30 1.95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 through 48 hrs euro has 2+ from the gsp in nj west to PA.....and from easton pa-lehigh valley a strip of 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Pretty amazing the consistency across the suite of models when its a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 You're so PA-centric, I haven't seen NJ in your QPF lists for a while Here's some regional totals thru 60 hours (I should leave PA out but I won't ) SID NAM GFS MPO 3.84 3.52 ABE 2.99 3.45 RDG 3.18 3.54 TTN 2.18 2.50 PHL 2.37 2.61 ILG 2.48 2.93 ACY 1.39 1.48 GED 1.30 1.95 haha I can't help it. it looks like there may be a sharp cut-off right along I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 the 12z RGEM gave most of Eastern PA 80-100mm, or 3.15"-3.93" some areas just inland see up to 140mm (5.51") the 12z GGEM was similar, generally a 90-130mm total spread. (3.54"-5.11") The NMM is 2-3" right along I-95, 3-4" for Bucks Mont and N&W with a few dots of 7-8" and streaks of 6-7" The ARW gives everyone 3-4", with one spot of 7-8" upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 12z NMM: 12z ARW: There's a little bit more to fall past 48 hours on both models, moreso on the ARW than the NMM judging by sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12 Z GGEM drops 4-5 inches of rain across a good portion of E PA ...and what is kind of worrisome is the GGEM did well with the last systems rainfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12 Z GGEM drops 4-5 inches of rain across a good portion of E PA ...and what is kind of worrisome is the GGEM did well with the last systems rainfall... Mind posting map? Trying to get an idea of where in eastern pa..Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Stockton NJ forecasted to crest just below major flood stage. However if the GGEM is correct, this will need to be revised all along Delaware River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Where was all this moisture a month ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Mind posting map? Trying to get an idea of where in eastern pa..Thanks Well i was looking at the accu pro image but Raleighs will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wonderful, I live on the Neshaminy, and my house is being raised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Where was all this moisture a month ago? Good question...oh, and how come sharp cutoffs have suddenly gone away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Was that large squall line in the south forecasted? If not, I wonder if it'll rob any energy away from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Was that large squall line in the south forecasted? If not, I wonder if it'll rob any energy away from the north. yes it was well forecasted as was the severe threat. This is going to be historic, no two ways about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Was that large squall line in the south forecasted? If not, I wonder if it'll rob any energy away from the north. Nah. If anything, it's going to help enhance the trough going negative and aid in more moisture being transported. ( as modeled of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Good question...oh, and how come sharp cutoffs have suddenly gone away? Uh, is this not a sharp cutoff? It goes from 2.50-3.00" in Northern NJ to 0.75" in Western-Central Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 models are definitly hinting a lul in the precip about 24hrs from now. The NAM was too far west earlier in the week and I suspect it is again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 NAM has a two part system. End result QPF probably won't be too much different than 12z. Based on the 48hr accumultated precip it looks lower for NE NJ. Maybe 1-2" but it looked low at 12z and the text soundings indicated higher. NAM seems to be on the low end of the solution envelope. It's hard to believe with a closed off low tracking over E PA that the moisture won't be abundent on the eastern side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12z euro qpf map blue 1-5-1.75 yellow 1.75-2 orange 2-2.5 red 2.5-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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