CooL Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 can you say an exact replica of the 12z euro? yeah man haha, HPC did this with the last rain event too, everyday i pulled up the euro accum precip and the HPC maps and they were almost always the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 the 18z GFS was actually a hair wetter for MBY, 2.21" vs. 2.09" on the 12z. It looks like training thunderstorms again, so some areas which see significantly less than other areas. Kind of reminds me of the one storm the end of March last year that gave Rhode Island all that flooding, Jersey got pounded while we in PA had drizzle all day, ended up with 1.70" out of a forecast 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 the 18z GFS was actually a hair wetter for MBY, 2.21" vs. 2.09" on the 12z. It looks like training thunderstorms again, so some areas which see significantly less than other areas. Kind of reminds me of the one storm the end of March last year that gave Rhode Island all that flooding, Jersey got pounded while we in PA had drizzle all day, ended up with 1.70" out of a forecast 3-4" the wind storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Heh...they are pretty close.The 3-4" may be a little smaller on HPC's. That would lead to historic flooding concerns here in NE PA. What do you think about the susquehanna up where you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 As of 18z today, 6hr flash flood guidance for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fire39a Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 looks like a repeat of april 05 flood event,ugh. dont want to live through that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 It looks like training thunderstorms again, so some areas which see significantly less than other areas. Kind of reminds me of the one storm the end of March last year that gave Rhode Island all that flooding, Jersey got pounded while we in PA had drizzle all day, ended up with 1.70" out of a forecast 3-4" We would need to get enough instability this far north first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Tom or any met: Is this map the same as Tom just posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Tom or any met: Is this map the same as Tom just posted? yup...they match up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Tom or any met: Is this map the same as Tom just posted? Different map but it shows it on a county-wide average as opposed to gridded. Shows the "same" idea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 the wind storm? no, like two weeks after or so. the wind storm was 3/13, we lost 3 huge pine trees in about 15 minutes, first time any of those trees has fallen since the late 80s according to my dad (he says it was a Blizzard so I'm assuming Feb 1987?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 yup...they match up Different map but it shows it on a county-wide average as opposed to gridded. Shows the "same" idea though. Thanks guys...will these ffg amounts extend to Thursday, or will they update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Thanks guys...will these ffg amounts extend to Thursday, or will they update? The gridded one i posted, updates atleast twice a day, im not sure about yours, but i would imagine it updates atleast once a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The gridded one i posted, updates atleast twice a day, im not sure about yours, but i would imagine it updates atleast once a day. I think he might have meant do the guidance numbers such as <1" for FFG stand for same values needed on Thursday for a FFW or watch. If that is the case, those numbers will probably change as creeks/ rivers and streams all have time to drain out. Same with the soil. However, I can't imagine the area drying out too much without any real heat this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 looks like a repeat of april 05 flood event,ugh. dont want to live through that again Delaware River at Trenton the afternoon of 4/3/05, moderate flooding at the time - 23'. River would go on to reach major flood stage over 25' the following day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Well up my way the mighty Susquehanna River would have to top 41 feet to flood downtown wilkes-barre (That's not going to happen) but it's at it's natural flood stage right now of 22 feet. Areas to my n and w got 20+ inches. If and IF the warm up and 3 inches of rain happens thursday, you can bet there will be SERIOUS issues for communities not protected by Wilkes-Barre's levee system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 0z NAM PHL 1.80" PNE 1.98" DYL 2.23" ABE 2.60" MPO 2.89" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 0z GFS 2.50"-3.00" in Philly, 3-4" N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 0z GFS 2.50"-3.00" in Philly, 3-4" N&W Wow, the NAM is less than the GFS for QPF. This must be a first for this winter. 3-4 inches appears to be a pretty good bet. There will be serious flooding if training thunderstorms show up. I wonder how full the reservoirs are in the Delaware River watershed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 going off the b&w charts, the 0z GGEM looks like a soaker as well. easily 1.75" minimum along I-95, central PA sees up to 4". more logical than the 12z, which had the secondary occluding in Georgia Edit: 1.75"-2.50" in SEPA, 2.50"-3.50" in CPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 0z GFS PNE 3.37" PHL 2.83" DYL 3.54" ABE 3.73" MPO 4.34" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 00z ECM PNE 2.26 PHL 2.19 DYL 2.73" ABE 3.34" MPO 3.81 AVP 3.72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 What is the Euro showing for places like TTN, NYC, EWR? 00z ECM PNE 2.26 PHL 2.19 DYL 2.73" ABE 3.34" MPO 3.81 AVP 3.72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 What is the Euro showing for places like TTN, NYC, EWR? TTN: 2.31 NYC 2.02 EWR 2.16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Pretty ominous forecast for my location per State College. Some really heavy qpf for the headwaters of the Schuylkill River here, as well as the Susquehanna and Delaware elsewhere if forecasts like this verify. Wednesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 1am. Low around 35. East wind between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 48. Southeast wind between 11 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday Night: Rain. Low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Historic flooding??? Susquehanna is already near bankful already Pretty ominous forecast for my location per State College. Some really heavy qpf for the headwaters of the Schuylkill River here, as well as the Susquehanna and Delaware elsewhere if forecasts like this verify. Wednesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 1am. Low around 35. East wind between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 48. Southeast wind between 11 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday Night: Rain. Low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Geez, the models overnight sure don't paint a pretty picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 QPF bullseye is dangerously close to the Delaware and Leigh River headwaters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 From the HPC latest QPF discussion: AXIS OF STRONG SELY INFLOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE PIVOTING NEG TILTED SHRTWV AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...MOVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR HVY/EXCESSIVE AMTS FURTHER N ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO CNTRL/ERN PA AND SERN NY ON DAY 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I don't think the Schuylkill will be too bad in my area (Berks), but the susquehanna from northern PA to harrisburg and south will potentially be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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