Thunder Road Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Another Lakes-Cutter is upon us. Last night at 0z, the GFS has a similar set-up to this storm, with the primary driving north into Canada and a secondary getting going in the SE. Then it had the secondary occluding over DC, causing copious amounts of rain to fall on the Philly metro area. The 6z was actually rather similar, but it had the secondary occluding a bit farther north, far enough that Philly "misses out" on the extremely heavy rain. The 0z GGEM had a similar idea wrt to the occluding and heavy rains, it brings about 1.75"-3.50" of rain to the area from the storm late this week. With heavy rain today/tonight, the ground will stay saturated, so flooding is definitely a concern for the end-of-the-week storm, especially if the storm occludes like the Canadian & GFS modeled last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 the one after this = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 HPC QPF Days 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 HPC QPF Days 4-5. Rowboats anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 If those amounts pan out this will wind up becoming a serious flooding situation considering the ground, rivers, and streams will already be primed from today's heavy rain. Rowboats anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 If those amounts pan out this will wind up becoming a serious flooding situation considering the ground, rivers, and streams will already be primed from today's heavy rain. I haven't read their disco but outside of last night's 0z GFS, this prediction has almost no model support. Perhaps they're basing this off the fact that today's system overperformed (1.79" IMBY when most models had < 1.25") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 HPC Extended Forecast Discussion I haven't read their disco but outside of last night's 0z GFS, this prediction has almost no model support. Perhaps they're basing this off the fact that today's system overperformed (1.79" IMBY when most models had < 1.25") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 HPC Extended Forecast Discussion According to tombo, even the ECM was only 1-2" for this area. The 12z GGEM was around 1.25"-1.85", still an impressive rainstorm but I don't know about 2.50"-3.00" P.S. can you save that pic (if you didn't already) otherwise it will just update with tomorrow's...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 euro is going 1.5- 2.5 inches of rain over the region for late week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I think there is going to be significant flood potential later this week, especially after yesterdays heavy rain. euro is going 1.5- 2.5 inches of rain over the region for late week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 12z NAM gives PHL 1.33" and ABE 1.81" with more to come past Hr 84 most likely. The ground is saturated, so I'm expecting significant flooding Friday night. I hope it slows down enough that most of the flooding holds off until Saturday morning - better for pictures and whatnot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 0z GGEM held serve last night bringing in generally 35-50mm, or 1.38"-2.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 12z GFS gives PNE 2.09" and PHL 2.00" EWR is the big "winner" on this run with 2.30" of rain 12z Canadian basically the same, 1.50"-2.00" or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 ok ok i know it's the DGEX but holy crap if that verifies buy stock in rowboats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 ok ok i know it's the DGEX but holy crap if that verifies buy stock in rowboats NAM was most bullish with the precip totals through 84, so no surprise there. Anyone have any thoughts on Severe weather aspect of this storm? Neg tilt trough always helps the cause. I imagine the main focus would be down south, but then again, with the re-developing cut off, it throws a wrench into things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 12 Z ECM Text Output brings another 2.46 inches to KABE at this time frame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 12 Z ECM Text Output brings another 2.46 inches to KABE at this time frame.... what about PHL and TTN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 what about PHL and TTN? KPHL 1.56 TTN 1.57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 KPHL 1.56 TTN 1.57 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 thanks No problem..Heaviest QPF is from east central PA and back west thru Central PA to C NY where they get 3-4 inches .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 thanks the heaviest is west, where central pa gets 2-4 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 euro per central pa thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Ski resorts are pretty much closed but this isn't going to help. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Ski resorts are pretty much closed but this isn't going to help. Yikes. Spring Mountain is still hoping to be able to be open this coming weekend for their end of the season party. As I drove past this morning, the ski slope wasn't looking in very good condition. If the consensus forecast of around 2 inches of rain with temps in the 50's for Thursday is correct, there is no chance at all that Spring Mountain will be open this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Wow, that's going to cause quite a problem if it verifies. euro per central pa thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 FWIW updated HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 FWIW updated HPC can you say an exact replica of the 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 if that HPC map verifies I wouldn't want to be anywhere in the Susquehanna flood plain those basin wide totals in addtion to a river that's already around flood stage looks to be a very serious situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 can you say an exact replica of the 12z euro? I would say close but it looks slightly wetter in some areas compared to the ECM ..at least looking at the image that i have available ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 can you say an exact replica of the 12z euro? Heh...they are pretty close.The 3-4" may be a little smaller on HPC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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