ksstormhunter Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Hello all, per request and good suggestions, I wanted to explain how my model output works and how the graphics I post are built for future reference. To Start I ingest the NAM, GFS, WRF text data from Surface to 300mb. I take the current run and the previous run. Then it grabs the 24 history of surface observations, upper air (if available) and some PIREPS and ArtyMET. Then I compare the actual observed data with the previous and current model output to identify trends and how much each surface parameter was off. For example if the NAM was going for winds 120 at 8 knots but the observed wind was 190 at 13 kts. The model was off by -60 degrees and -5 knots. I do this comparison for Winds, Temperature, Clouds, Visibility, precipitation amounts, altimeter, present weather. Then based off of performance and establishing overall under or over forecasting of each parameter, I take that value and apply it to the current model run and then output the data into a spreadsheet, which is broken down hourly. These calculations take place every hour as I get new surface observation, Upper Air, and PIREPS/Artymet. So the output changes hourly, I only post when significant changes occur. As for the severe weather graphics and snowfall forecast. I use the same NAM, GFS, WRF, and RUC SVR, current observation trends for temps, dew point and pressure, and Pireps. It compares 68 environmental indicies and synoptic conditions, and each is valued different, and produces a threat value, with 1.00 meaning that ll the indicies and synoptic conditions are met for a significant Tornado threat. This is updated hourly as surface conditions changes and as weather reports come in. The graphical map outlines areas in Green (Marginal Instability) that show at .4 or higher value, Orange (Moderate Instability) for .6 or higher, .8 or higher for Red( Strong Instability), and .9 for Purple. (Extreme Instability). Every 10 days I compare how the values related to what the storm reports showed to fine tune the numbers. As for the snowfall predictions it takes the average temperature and give a best guess of snowfall ratio and adds up the 24 hour precip total and inputs the snowfall ration to give the snow amounts you see on the .pdf's. This is a general scope of what it does, any specific questions please let me know, still have plenty of work left to do on it. And would love any additional guidance or performance critique. Thx. My ultimate goal here for my program is to have the ability to run hour by hour model data combined with surface observations to provide an accurate potential of weather in a certain areas. Each run I do, I compared what actually happened and try to note similarities in the microscale-mesoscale-snynoptic scale, and be able to learn from these patterns to produce a more accurate product. June 11,2011--I have added an experimental Tornado Index indicie, it takes wind shear values combined with current surface pressure falls and provides a precentage output of potential to see a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 New City Output Design, would love some feedback on it, I have thick skin and love constructive criticism. Thanks... I have attached a .PDF to view. Test1.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Does it cost to use the smart model and where can you access it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 It is free, does not cost anything. The product can be viewed at http://smartwxmodel.net Soon I will have it available for download. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Hello all, I have just updated my site and data output, i have also added a help file which explains my program in a bit more detail. Love some feedback on it. The data is located at http://smartwxmodel.net and the help file is at http://smartwxmodel.net/SmartCast.pdf Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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