David Reimer Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 you can't be sure about that, this looks like December 1st 2006 for this area, no cape yet a tornado touchdown in western pa at 10:00am with temps in the 60s also, my local news station is calling for strong storms on tuesday That was most likely caused by high amounts of 3 KM CAPE. Your highest dewpoint on Tuesday will be the upper 40's to around 50. The low level jet at 850 MB will be screaming out of the south at 60 knots, but MLCAPE looks to remain below 250 J/Kg. You may get some damaging wind gusts, but you won't likely even see lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 That was most likely caused by high amounts of 3 KM CAPE. Your highest dewpoint on Tuesday will be the upper 40's to around 50. The low level jet at 850 MB will be screaming out of the south at 60 knots, but MLCAPE looks to remain below 250 J/Kg. You may get some damaging wind gusts, but you won't likely even see lightning. Wow i looked at an article about that day, and the MLCAPES were only 250j/kg , I think this could be a isolated severe weather event for the area in the Upper Ohio Valley back to Louisiana area tomorrow, i think a MDT Risk is possible and a threat for strong to violent tornadoes, models are going to have difficulty with this storm based on what i am seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Wow i looked at an article about that day, and the MLCAPES were only 250j/kg , I think this could be a isolated severe weather event for the area in the Upper Ohio Valley back to Louisiana area tomorrow, i think a MDT Risk is possible and a threat for strong to violent tornadoes, models are going to have difficulty with this storm based on what i am seeing What were the dewpoints? There is so much more then one ingredient, such as mixed-layer instability. Seriously, less talking and more listening, unless you want to provide a detailed reason to show why there is a chance of any severe weather in your area Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 What were the dewpoints? There is so much more then one ingredient, such as mixed-layer instability. Seriously, less talking and more listening, unless you want to provide a detailed reason to show why there is a chance of any severe weather in your area Tuesday? Dewpoints were mid-upper 50s...haha...no chance of a 12/1/06 repeat...none...zero...zip...zada...zilch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yeah, main threat seems to be in the southeast, to southcentral, where things could get really interesting. There may be lots of shear up in the Ohio valley, but instability is lacking, and the moisture return is horrendous. Places right off the gulf fortunately (or unfortunately) get the most moisture return due to their location-which again is obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Tomorrow into Tuesday looks like a serious severe weather outbreak with severe weather from the gulf to canada possible, just to mention up in the Upper OV Valley, forecasts have shown extreme helicity in the Mid Atlantic and Upper Ohio Valley on Tuesday You typically get extreme helicity in the late fall and winter systems....they usually average over 500 often over 1000....there is no instability tomorrow....a severe weather outbreak in that area is as likely as Matt Stafford playing 16 games in a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 What were the dewpoints? There is so much more then one ingredient, such as mixed-layer instability. Seriously, less talking and more listening, unless you want to provide a detailed reason to show why there is a chance of any severe weather in your area Tuesday? Yeah I agree with you Dave and tornadotony....the timing on it sucks too....northpitt is wrong....I had high helicity last week with a tor watch to the west when the ORD and MKX areas got tors, and had basically the same shear....while sitting at 62/58 and didn't even get one flicker of lightning....like you said shear isn't enough alone.....nor does one past event even if the dewpoints did verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yeah I agree with you Dave and tornadotony....the timing on it sucks too....northpitt is wrong....I had high helicity last week with a tor watch to the west when the ORD and MKX areas got tors, and had basically the same shear....while sitting at 62/58 and didn't even get one flicker of lightning....like you said shear isn't enough alone.....nor does one past event even if the dewpoints did verify. LOL, you get in that watch too? That was the most ridiculous tor watch ever. not even really worth a svr watch. I was like what is Corfidi smoking, let alone GRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 LOL, you get in that watch too? That was the most ridiculous tor watch ever. not even really worth a svr watch. I was like what is Corfidi smoking, let alone GRR SPC was being very cautious, it was surprising when we saw those 7 tornadoes in Northern Illinois and even that 1/2 mile wide wedge was reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 SPC was being very cautious, it was surprising when we saw those 7 tornadoes in Northern Illinois and even that 1/2 mile wide wedge was reported Wondered what they estimated that 1/2 mile against. I believe the report said max of 200 yds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 SPC was being very cautious, it was surprising when we saw those 7 tornadoes in Northern Illinois and even that 1/2 mile wide wedge was reported There were only 3 confirmed tornadoes...and given the environment, it was not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 There were only 3 confirmed tornadoes...and given the environment, it was not surprising. not suprising at all....wish would of played further north than on the 2 supercells to the southwest. will be interesting to see what SPC does with the day 1 later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 LOL, you get in that watch too? That was the most ridiculous tor watch ever. not even really worth a svr watch. I was like what is Corfidi smoking, let alone GRR Nah it was just west of me by a few counties but was watching it on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 not suprising at all....wish would of played further north than on the 2 supercells to the southwest. will be interesting to see what SPC does with the day 1 later tonight. I think we could have a moderate risk for severe, 15% Hatched Tornado, 30% Wind Hatched and maybe a 15% Wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Good thing I just shifted work around, so I'll be out there chasing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 was just going to post that lol some bells should start going off....have only seen a 50 bust once and that was a few days after the 6/5 event this year...all others were 6/5...5/10....and 4/24 BTW...GO BEARS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Good thing I just shifted work around, so I'll be out there chasing tomorrow. I HATE you bag a birthday tornado for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 If the SREF is to be believed, SPC will need to shift the higher tornado probs to the west as it shows the same high number along the TX/LA border at 12 PM tomorrow. I'm gonna have to keep an eye on that, because if so my initial target may end up being in extreme east Texas before shifting into LA. The 0Z NAM is showing about 30 knots for storm motion tomorrow, which is quite manageable. If we start getting storm motions around 50 MPH then it's gonna be problematic to keep up with the 'poor' road networks in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Wowza - I've never seen 400 J/Kg before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 This shows the threat area pretty well with Strong tornado risk not making it much past SE AR. Thats some impressive dews all over LA. at 2100 South Of Stuttgart AR. looks good for significant Severe and tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Really thinking that general area from Lake Charles to Jackson may be the heart of a Moderate Risk at some point in the game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I HATE you bag a birthday tornado for me! Yeah but why chase when you have Dr. Mower's Dynamics class....errr....scratch that....I'd wanna chase too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yeah but why chase when you have Dr. Mower's Dynamics class....errr....scratch that....I'd wanna chase too. LOL, yeah im pretty sure nobody wants to take his exams. I'm not that far yet, but im always hearing groans every now and then from some of the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Good luck tomorrow and post some pics....or video....I'd prob set up just east ok Lake Charles in case you had to jet ne to Alexandrea, which may not be a bad set up spot....good hunting.:mapstorm: Yeah I'm thinking about the Alexandra area. Since I'd be coming in from Dallas that would be an easy jog on I-20 down I-49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 If the SREF is to be believed, SPC will need to shift the higher tornado probs to the west as it shows the same high number along the TX/LA border at 12 PM tomorrow. I'm gonna have to keep an eye on that, because if so my initial target may end up being in extreme east Texas before shifting into LA. The 0Z NAM is showing about 30 knots for storm motion tomorrow, which is quite manageable. If we start getting storm motions around 50 MPH then it's gonna be problematic to keep up with the 'poor' road networks in place. Good luck tomorrow and post some pics....or video....I'd prob set up just east of Lake Charles in case you had to jet ne to Alexandrea, which may not be a bad set up spot....good hunting.:mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The 0z SPC WRF would point towards a very active day/night across AR/LA/MS/AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Just posted over on the blog concerning tomorrow and my chase plans. It looks like I'll be chasing tornadoes, then going on damage coverage. http://www.texasstormchasers.com/2010/11/28/chasing-in-louisiana-tomorrow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Just posted over on the blog concerning tomorrow and my chase plans. It looks like I'll be chasing tornadoes, then going on damage coverage. http://www.texasstor...siana-tomorrow/ Looks like we could have some violent tornadoes (Good Luck David) also for 12z time period on tuesday shows t-storms from great lakes to gulf coast looks like a 2 day outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I would think we'll be looking at a moderate risk across portions of AR/LA/MS/AL with an area of 15% hatched tor probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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