tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Time to get some discussion going on this system. The NAM has been persistent in painting a rather interesting scenario with the system on Monday and Tuesday. It brings a good tongue of 65F Tds up into LA and into central MS. It develops about 750-1000J/kg of CAPE in an extremely sheared environment. Strong environmental shear would promote supercells and tornadoes in the warm sector, with a line along the front. GFS has a similar setup but with less instability, which is likely from poor handling of the lower levels. SREF is really keying in on a threat, with the sig tor ingredients product tripping 30% on the 21z run and the mean sig tor reaching 3. JAN and LCH both mention tornadoes in their AFDs, with JAN even talking up a potential outbreak scenario. I wouldn't say an outbreak is likely yet, but unlike the threat around Thanksgiving, this event has strong SREF support, so my interested is definitely piqued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 And as I say this, the GFS has 1250-1500J/kg of CAPE on Monday along the TX/LA border...crap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Yeah this has a sneaky potential to be pretty good. The moisture return should be very nice come Monday down there, although I'd be eyeing areas a little bit further north where the winds are a bit stronger, like where LA/AR/MS meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Why couldn't this have happened last week when I had a free schedule? GAH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 09z SREF has an expanded 30% area at 21z tomorrow and then introduces higher probs for S MS and SE LA at 03z and 06z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 12z SPC WRF says supercell outbreak ongoing by 21z tomorrow...ouch... 21z: 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 New day 2 is 15% hatched with multiple mentions of significant tornadoes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 This part really catches my eye: WHILE THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY PART OF MONDAY EVENING...THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD CENTRAL TX SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE INLAND INTRUSION OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL AID IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS INTO THE SRN HALF OF MS AND SWRN AL OVERNIGHT. FURTHER INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL WINDS ATOP THE LLJ WILL SUPPORT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TORNADO THREAT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. Sounds like a classic Dixie Alley overnight tornado outbreak...this could be very dangerous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Reflectivity at 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 0-3km CAPE on the NAM...sky high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Catching up a bit on this setup right now looking at things....wouldn't surprise me to see a 15% hatched MDT risk out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 SREF up to 40%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Tomorrow into Tuesday looks like a serious severe weather outbreak with severe weather from the gulf to canada possible, just to mention up in the Upper OV Valley, forecasts have shown extreme helicity in the Mid Atlantic and Upper Ohio Valley on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Tomorrow into Tuesday looks like a serious severe weather outbreak with severe weather from the gulf to canada possible, just to mention up in the Upper OV Valley, forecasts have shown extreme helicity in the Mid Atlantic and Upper Ohio Valley on Tuesday Haven't looked at this much but from what I've seen, I don't see a threat up to Canada. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Haven't looked at this much but from what I've seen, I don't see a threat up to Canada. Am I missing something? No, you're not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 No, you're not. Sorry dude, i ment the warm sector may be up into Canada, but the severe weather threat may be south of the border in the Upper Ohio Valley Steelers and Bills are in going into a OT Thriller, just getting this stuff in quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 That is numerous supercells from the Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley, some actually forming under the low pressure system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 New Orleans office seems to be taking a somewhat conservative approach at present, especially with respect to lapse rates. I'm not so sure. .SHORT TERM... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY STREAMING NORTH FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS A DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS 40+ KNOT LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE SHEAR SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT WITH 50+ KNOTS OF SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM RANGE...THERE WILL BE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL A LACK OF OVERALL INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE WARM AND MOIST...A LACK OF GOOD LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A MORE CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY LINEAR EVENT...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 That is numerous supercells from the Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley, some actually forming under the low pressure system You're clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 You're clueless. not really!!!!! Chicago storm, i am doing like 3 different things right now, watching football, talking to people, and making a weather forecast, it's madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 not really!!!!! Chicago storm, i am doing like 3 different things right now, watching football, talking to people, and making a weather forecast, it's madness I suggest you give up weather and conserve your LIMITED resources----- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 not really!!!!! Chicago storm, i am doing like 3 different things right now, watching football, talking to people, and making a weather forecast, it's madness There's certainly some pretty decent shear into IL etc but where is the instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Greg Forbes has a TOR CON of 4 for the southeast, he says he may need to raise it over time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Greg Forbes has a TOR CON of 4 for the southeast, he says he may need to raise it over time Yeah. the southeast, not Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Yeah. the southeast, not Ohio. yeah still the threat is will possibly extend into ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 yeah still the threat is will possibly extend into ohio A general T-storm threat, yes, but basically no chance of severe weather that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 A general T-storm threat, yes, but basically no chance of severe weather that far north. you can't be sure about that, this looks like December 1st 2006 for this area, no cape yet a tornado touchdown in western pa at 10:00am with temps in the 60s also, my local news station is calling for strong storms on tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 That is numerous supercells from the Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley, some actually forming under the low pressure system can you zoom in on that reflectivity plot and see if either of the two supercells in northeast kansas will hit me? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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