SmokeEater Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 First severe warning of the day in N TX. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 306 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... FANNIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... EASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 400 PM CST * AT 306 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF TOM BEAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... SAVOY AND HENDRIX AROUND 315 PM ECTOR AROUND 320 PM BONHAM AROUND 330 PM BONHAM STATE PARK AROUND 335 PM DODD CITY AROUND 340 PM HONEY GROVE AROUND 355 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 I think there's a pretty good shot that thing NW of Nawlins is trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Does everything rotate when it gets near a Greensburg? I was wondering when that big blob of a supercell would finally start rotating I guess so... Looks like there;s a broader, larger area of rotation SW of the first one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 I guess so... Looks like there;s a broader, larger area of rotation SW of the first one as well. Yeah, it's a bizarre looking HP-supercell blobby mess...hope to God there's nothing on the ground there because the probability of being able to see it is <0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Yeah, it's a bizarre looking HP-supercell blobby mess...hope to God there's nothing on the ground there because the probability of being able to see it is <0. Its barely even moving, too....radar estimates of 3-4" in the area already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 If I were at FWD, I would probably TOR this thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 353 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL FANNIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... * UNTIL 445 PM CST * AT 354 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR HONEY GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ROXTON AROUND 415 PM CST... TOCO AROUND 425 PM CST... PARIS AROUND 435 PM CST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Frisky little thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 353 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL FANNIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... * UNTIL 445 PM CST * AT 354 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR HONEY GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ROXTON AROUND 415 PM CST... TOCO AROUND 425 PM CST... PARIS AROUND 435 PM CST... This storm here is in a good environment for tornadoes, in an area of 80kts of SFC-8KM Shear, also right inline with that tongue of higher CAPE's of over 1500 (J/kg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Pain in the rump location of this storm...still impressive at 13kft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Pain in the rump location of this storm...still impressive at 13kft... That rotation is going to pass right over Paris pop. 25,898 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Pain in the rump? Between FWD and SHV. Scary to think how warnings would work if, say SHV went down for repairs. That'd be a lot of area to be covered by Granger, Fort Worth and Fort Polk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Baseballs reported west of Paris, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Not necessarily. A Smartmodel's not going to catch all the mesoscale nuances. Nor do indexes tell you the whole picture. For instance, Mesoanalysis shows 50kt of Bulk shear in SE LA, but d(wind velocity) between 850 and 500mb is nearly zero. And as a result, note that all the storms in SE LA thus far have failed to remain discrete. The "high risk" purple area in east central TX is lodged in an area of subsidence between the two areas of forcing/convection in LA and N Ctrl TX. I'm not trying to diss on the smartmodel, but I'm trying to make a point - like any other model, it is just guidance. Good to have to look at, but look at the bigger picture. No worries, you are correct, it is 80% Model and 20% hourly surface observations and Pireps. I try to adjust the model output with how it is performing now and in the past to give a future outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 DFW station has a live feed up, with chopper. http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Tornado-Watch-Issued-Until-8-PM-117600298.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Man I would be sweating bullets in Paris right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Shame this storm is in such a radar hole, 100 kts G2G, but it's at over 14,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 A little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 No worries, you are correct, it is 80% Model and 20% hourly surface observations and Pireps. I try to adjust the model output with how it is performing now and in the past to give a future outlook. I do wish you best of luck on the endeavor. I'm definitely looking forward to future improvements and updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 429 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 TXC277-082245- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110308T2245Z/ LAMAR TX- 429 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTY... AT 427 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A RADAR INDICATED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN PARIS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WEST OF PARIS WITH THIS STORM THAT MAY HAVE BEEN FROM A TORNADO. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SOUTH SIDE OF PARIS AT 430 PM CST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 433 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... RED RIVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLARKSVILLE...BOXELDER... * UNTIL 530 PM CST * AT 426 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 20 MILES WEST OF BAGWELL...OR NEAR PARIS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Warning along the WF BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 437 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... NORTHERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKLINTON... SOUTHERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 515 PM CST * AT 434 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WILMER...OR 13 MILES WEST OF FRANKLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Several areas of rotation in LA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 72/68 at Alexandria LA. Some juicy air advecting northward with that warm front to add fuel to the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 519 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 TXC387-082330- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110308T2330Z/ RED RIVER TX- 519 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST FOR RED RIVER COUNTY... AT 511 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED EAST OF DETROIT...NEAR HIGHWAY 82...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS TORNADO WAS REPORTED TO BE RAIN WRAPPED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 528 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 TXC387-090015- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110309T0015Z/ RED RIVER TX- 528 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR RED RIVER COUNTY... AT 524 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND IN CITY OF CLARKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. RESIDENTS IN AND NEAR CLARKSDALE...TAKE COVER NOW!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Lots of chasers live right now. David Reimer appears to have a very nice wall cloud on his feed http://www.chasertv.com/watch/video-wall-chat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 My buddy Brandon Sullivan is reporting damage around Clarksville, TX. He says there is a semi on top of a car, and debris all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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