tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 wow that is hilarious lol you guys post those at the same time as I just saved the images and was going to post them just now. Been watching these for awhile now...huge area for the 50 values...and very long duration... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Been watching these for awhile now...huge area for the 50 values...and very long duration... and they have been coming up a 20 or 30 after right near New Orleans.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cajun Thunder Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Heh I just realized tomorrow is Fat Tuesday...this could set up to be a major disaster if Louisiana is in the cross-hairs of a tornado outbreak on one of its biggest days of the year... Most of the true Mardi Gras day parades in N.O...are in the morning tomorrow. One of the larger weekend parades...Endymion...got moved from Saturday to yesterday...which was a good thing. A squall line moved through right in the middle of when they would have been setting up for the parade. Organizers for that parade paid attention to the information they were given. They ran it back to back with Bacchus last night, which made for a pretty long evening along the parade route. After dark tomorrow...most of the celebrating will be in the French Quarter...and that ends at midnight. Normally...we'd prefer that severe weather occur during the day when people are more active and aware of the weather. I guess we could wish for no severe weather at all the next 48 hours, but that seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Most of the true Mardi Gras day parades in N.O...are in the morning tomorrow. One of the larger weekend parades...Endymion...got moved from Saturday to yesterday...which was a good thing. A squall line moved through right in the middle of when they would have been setting up for the parade. Organizers for that parade paid attention to the information they were given. They ran it back to back with Bacchus last night, which made for a pretty long evening along the parade route. After dark tomorrow...most of the celebrating will be in the French Quarter...and that ends at midnight. Normally...we'd prefer that severe weather occur during the day when people are more active and aware of the weather. I guess we could wish for no severe weather at all the next 48 hours, but that seems unlikely. Hope you stay safe down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Most of the true Mardi Gras day parades in N.O...are in the morning tomorrow. One of the larger weekend parades...Endymion...got moved from Saturday to yesterday...which was a good thing. A squall line moved through right in the middle of when they would have been setting up for the parade. Organizers for that parade paid attention to the information they were given. They ran it back to back with Bacchus last night, which made for a pretty long evening along the parade route. After dark tomorrow...most of the celebrating will be in the French Quarter...and that ends at midnight. Normally...we'd prefer that severe weather occur during the day when people are more active and aware of the weather. I guess we could wish for no severe weather at all the next 48 hours, but that seems unlikely. I was in New Orleans for 4 days last april, great town. We were in the French Quarter quite a bit. They are going to be under the gun tomorrow and it could very well likely be around midnight or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 This is about what I'm thinking for tomorrow, in terms of an outlook area... Notes: 1) Played it safe by extended slight risk W on the south end, though don't really expect too much in SE TX. 2) E OK/W AR is going to be a wildcard...NAM had for awhile hinted at decent instability making it up there but then backed off...don't think we'll see too much there, but it's worth watching to see how far N the warm front gets. 3) In my mind, the mdt risk is about as high-end as mdt risks go. With the insane amount of low-level instability in play tomorrow night with low-level wind shear through the roof and the models now yelling discrete to semi-discrete structures from the rooftops...the only thing that kept me from putting a high risk on the map is that I want to ensure we see the moisture return painted for LA. If it does, expect a high-risk-style verification, especially across the northern half to two-thirds of LA and far srn AR. 4) It's not often that the ensembles (SREF, MREF) are more bullish than the op guidance, and op guidance isn't exactly a walk in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 ust updating my forecast for tommorrow. Right now I am tracking a the most favored areas for tornado potential across the extreme eastern part of TX, running through Lousisanna area to southern part of Arkansas. Right now I think SW border or LA and AR will see the greatest potential of Tornadic storms. Showing -3 to -4 LI's, CAPES running around 1000, seeing good 0-3KM Shear. Here is the zoomed in threat area. Any thoughts on the potential for these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2011 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ..SYNOPSIS AS LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES OTHERWISE PREVAIL IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A SOUTHERN SPLIT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM NORTH TX TO NORTHEAST MO/WESTERN IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ..OZARKS/AR/NORTHERN LA TO MS VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY AIDED BY A 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST /SUB 1000 J PER KG MUCAPE/...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. ...CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OK AND TX TO ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... A RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF TX/OK AND ARKLATEX TODAY...CHARACTERIZED BY JUST 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE/SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST TX AND THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE LOW LEVEL HEATING COUPLED WITH APPRECIABLE COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY/MID EVENING...INITIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN OK AND NEAR A TRIPLE POINT/ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...ALONG AND MORE SO EAST OF I-35. A SEMI-DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE SHOULD BE LONGEST LIVED WITHIN A BROADER WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTHEAST TX ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY OVERTAKES THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND A LINEAR MODE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT. IN ALL...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...MUCH OF LA TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR/NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT IS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING/SHORTWAVE RIDGING COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM SECTOR...COMBINED WITH A CAP ALOFT AND INITIALLY MODEST MOISTURE. REGARDLESS...THE WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BUT MAY OTHERWISE EFFECTIVELY BE REINFORCED/IMPEDED BY WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. IN THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OTHERWISE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR. WHILE THE EXTENT OF A DIURNAL SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS THE BASAL/SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD AND HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET /40-55 KT/...ELONGATED/STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG GIVEN AMPLE 0-1 KM SRH /300-400 M2 PER S2/. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE NEAR THE RAIN-REINFORCED EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND ADJACENT WARM SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD MATERIALIZE WITHIN A GENERAL NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS LA INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MS...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST AL LATE TONIGHT. ..GUYER/ROGERS.. 03/08/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 If you're not going to contribute anything productive, stop posting. There's no shame in reading. I have had enough the way you talk to me. I can post what ever I want if its related to tornadoes. I am not a know it all like you so there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 gonna be a crazy day tomorrow, dixie alley in full swing right now, those sref probabilities have really nailed a few events and when they really go nuts its a nice signal but then again they aren't a sure thing, I do think we go moderate tomorrow. Does spc use their own sref products operationally because its listed under their spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref, ie. experimental, i'm not sure how much weight these sref progs are given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 I have had enough the way you talk to me. I can post what ever I want if its related to tornadoes. I am not a know it all like you so there. Are we two-year-olds here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I have had enough the way you talk to me. I can post what ever I want if its related to tornadoes. I am not a know it all like you so there. just pm each other severe threads really shouldn't get cluttered with OT because some people want to get up to speed quickly and don't want to read the bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 gonna be a crazy day tomorrow, dixie alley in full swing right now, those sref probabilities have really nailed a few events and when they really go nuts its a nice signal but then again they aren't a sure thing, I do think we go moderate tomorrow. Does spc use their own sref products operationally because its listed under their spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref, ie. experimental, i'm not sure how much weight these sref progs are given. Whats the terrain like there? Just curious, if there will be any/many live streams from the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I am a bit surprised they don't have a 30 wind for tomorrow, honestly I am thinking the tor will be upped on the very next outlook too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I have had enough the way you talk to me. I can post what ever I want if its related to tornadoes. I am not a know it all like you so there. Your post was kinda weenieish though. Staff was in "survive winter" mode with the transition to this board but we really hope to attract more of the Midwest/severe crowd in particular in the coming weeks and months. Every post doesn't need to be a meteorological essay, but that type of stuff really isn't productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 gonna be a crazy day tomorrow, dixie alley in full swing right now, those sref probabilities have really nailed a few events and when they really go nuts its a nice signal but then again they aren't a sure thing, I do think we go moderate tomorrow. Does spc use their own sref products operationally because its listed under their spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref, ie. experimental, i'm not sure how much weight these sref progs are given. I was interested in seeing what the 0z SPC WRF was going to show, but it looks like it will be a late updating run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Your post was kinda weenieish though. Staff was in "survive winter" mode with the transition to this board but we really hope to attract more of the Midwest/severe crowd in particular in the coming weeks and months. Every post doesn't need to be a meteorological essay, but that type of stuff really isn't productive. Fine then but I think we can be more mature about it. I dont like being immature about things but that David Reimer has always something negative about my posts and it really ticks me off. No I dont that much about forecasting or posting things from other websites but I feel though what is the point in being a member if I cant at least comment on something. I am nearly 31 years old and am probably older than quite a few of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Fine then but I think we can be more mature about it. I dont like being immature about things but that David Reimer has always something negative about my posts and it really ticks me off. No I dont that much about forecasting or posting things from other websites but I feel though what is the point in being a member if I cant at least comment on something. I am nearly 31 years old and am probably older than quite a few of you. Ok first of all, age has nothing to do with anything..but you would think it would show in the english department. People get ticked off when you make a statement like you did about EF-3 tornadoes on interstates!!! you go ahead and try to justify or explain what you said. One with lesser knowledge is better off hanging back and reading what people post, It's what I did years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Ok first of all, age has nothing to do with anything..but you would think it would show in the english department. People get ticked off when you make a statement like you did about EF-3 tornadoes on interstates!!! you go ahead and try to justify or explain what you said. One with lesser knowledge is better off hanging back and reading what people post, It's what I did years ago. this x 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Whats the terrain like there? Just curious, if there will be any/many live streams from the area. You mean the area in the bullseye tomorrow, LA and S AR? Dreadful. If it weren't for the new breed of extreme addict chasers that's emerged over the past 2-3 years, I'd say there probably won't be anyone chasing this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 You mean the area in the bullseye tomorrow, LA and S AR? Dreadful. If it weren't for the new breed of extreme addict chasers that's emerged over the past 2-3 years, I'd say there probably won't be anyone chasing this event. Hills or forest, or both? I have never been to that part of the country. Similar to the Ozarks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Hills or forest, or both? I have never been to that part of the country. Similar to the Ozarks? You won't see them either unless it crosses a major interstate. That area is IMPOSSIBLE to chase in. Its a sit yourself down and hope you see something as it goes past you. Visibility is always an issue due to the trees. I'd say Lousianaa is the worst area to chase in. Out in Arkansas you have hills, but its flatter in LA so you don't have any view. If they do get significant tornadoes out there and it hits a town, you can bet it will end up producing a substantial fatality count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 11z RUC is ominous for LA tonight. For 03z it is progging 1000-1500 CAPE, low level helicity of 250-400 and 65-70 dews for much of LA. Will be interesting to see if SPC pulls the moderate trigger at morning update. Low 60 dews are already beginning to stream northward from se TX and coastal LA at this early hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 SPC has just issued a public outlook for potential sig tors for tonight for much of LA and southern MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 60ºF plus dewpoints should be in place in Northern Louisiana and Southern Alabama before evening. Cooler in SHV, but no really obvious cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 There are areas on US 82 East of the Red River but West of Lewisville that are semi-agricultural, and not totally covered with trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 RUC showing 68 Td's for some areas later today. Look at them already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Somewhat surprised we didn't have a small moderate area this morning, esp given those dew points shown on the map above, clearly decent enough moisture coming up combined with a strongly sheared set-up suggests that like the warning said some stronger tornadoes do look probable late today and into the night time hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 NCEP Operational Status Message Tue Mar 8 14:40:30 2011 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 081438ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD1437Z TUE MAR 08 201112Z NAM IS RUNNING BEHIND SCHEDULE BY 60 MIN...SUPPORT ISCURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DELAY... 12Z RAOB RECAP..OUN/72357 - PURGE 734 TO 582MB TEMPS/HUMIDITY WET BULB EFFECT..LCH/72240 - PURGE 776 TO 726MB TEMPS/HUMIDITY WET BULB EFFECT..LIX/72233 - PURGE 722 TO 683MB TEMPS/HUMIDITY WET BULB EFFECT..MPX/72649 - SHORT TO 818MB; 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS..CWD WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 15Z 3/8/11 TO 21Z 3/9/11 DUE TO SHUTTLELANDING..$$SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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