Allsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Do you have exact QPF amounts for HPN, NYC, and EWR? Nope sorry.....going off sv maps.....all those stations get over 2...def... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Nope sorry.....going off sv maps.....all those stations get over 2...def... Thanks, Tim...sounds as if all of us see some hydro issues. The ECM tends to be a bit paltry on QPF so this has to be a warning that some areas could jackpot with 3-4" rainfall and a widespread 2-2.5" except for eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=ruc7t:&runTime=2011031005&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUCModelFields&maxFcstLen=24&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 ruc pounds the area, almost in 2 rounds now it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 6Z GFS has 2-2.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I already have .56 inches of rain and this is just the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I have .60 already. I can't find a single model that even had half that much for me at this point. I am worried I may not be able to make it home from work tonight. The water table is already so high that the springs along my driveway were already gushing water before this rain even started. The Paulinskill River in Blairstown is already near its banks and will likely overflow and do serious flooding to Blairstown and close Rt. 94. This is bad, really, bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The line of heavy rain is only going to crawl east tonight while the upper low closes off at the same time. Elements in the line should train over the same areas delivering heavy rain amounts and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Both high res models easily give most of northern NJ 3-5" with isolated pockets of higher amounts. 2-4" seems like a lock now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 .74 already at my house in Blairstown. Both high res models easily give most of northern NJ 3-5" with isolated pockets of higher amounts. 2-4" seems like a lock now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This is going to be fun, incredible forcing and moisture for a line of convective precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This is going to be fun, incredible forcing and moisture for a line of convective precipitation Yikes. What time frame for the worst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Yikes. What time frame for the worst? Probably overnight tonight. Models differ with how fast that line gets through here but they almost always move faster than modeled. By the way the 09z ETA is insane. Noreaster85 will be washed away to the top of Mt Zucker where he and Zucker can talk about the upcoming snowstorm for anybody above 400 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This is going to be fun, incredible forcing and moisture for a line of convective precipitation What a disaster. I have my grandma's funeral tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 By the way, where has metfan been? Has he been officially deemed a slave at CVS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 What a disaster. I have my grandma's funeral tomorrow. Sorry to hear dude. Just posted about you around seven seconds ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The 12z NAM has the squall passing through NJ and NYC between 4am 7am. With the 60kt+ winds at 925mb, probably see wind gusts up to 50mph, along that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 What a disaster. I have my grandma's funeral tomorrow. It is no distater for NYC area. I feel bad for the stream and river areas though. Again, my condolences to you about your grandmother. Hang in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 What a disaster. I have my grandma's funeral tomorrow. Sorry to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 .79 inches in Blairstown, New Jersey already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 What a disaster. I have my grandma's funeral tomorrow. You have my condolensces. The weather should not be a major factor for the 5 Boroughs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This is going to be fun, incredible forcing and moisture for a line of convective precipitation The moisture flux really maxes out tonight into early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 .79 inches in Blairstown, New Jersey already. Drastic difference well to the east. Barely anything has fallen here in NE NJ. You NW NJ folks be careful out there. If there is standing water on the streets and you are driving do yourself a favor and turn around. Don't try to navigate through that stuff with your vehicle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Probably overnight tonight. Models differ with how fast that line gets through here but they almost always move faster than modeled. By the way the 09z ETA is insane. Noreaster85 will be washed away to the top of Mt Zucker where he and Zucker can talk about the upcoming snowstorm for anybody above 400 ft the NAM is a super soaker for north Jersey on both 06z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 It just started to rain here in Ramsey. You can see the rain really getting it's act together now south of Philly which looks to come right over north Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 It's still making very slow eastward progression, looks like it will get into NE NJ in the next hour or two but could take until afternoon to really reach the city on east It just started to rain here in Ramsey. You can see the rain really getting it's act together now south of Philly which looks to come right over north Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Latest, scary thing is, this usually ends up being way off one way or another. The rise will likely be much higher than this based on the latest guidance and radar signiature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 With the strong SE flow,you can see the NAM hitting the higher terrain areas hardest which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I had a feeling this was going to happen. I will watch the rain to my west and pat my own back fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Anthony, sorry to hear about your grandmother, being 40 and still having my grandmother alive, I know what a special relationship that is, hang in there man, focus on all the positive things that occured during your time with her! 38 windy overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The models have been hinting at a sharp cutoff right along the Hudson River for a long time now, this is exactly as modeled. The city will get it's rain but most of it will be from the squall line that comes in overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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