Allsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Cold rain here. Winter ended feb 2nd. The lifeboat is ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Cold rain here. Winter ended feb 2nd. The lifeboat is ready He will come back one more time. (Old Man Winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Sleeting pretty damn hard now with some snow mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Cold rain here. Winter ended feb 2nd. The lifeboat is ready Why do people think winter is over on March 9th when there's a coastal showing up at Day 6 on all models and another potential threat with 850s dropping near -10C at Day 9/10? This area almost always receives accumulating snow in March, and we haven't had any yet, so we're bound to see at least one minor event. Even the blowtorch March 2010 had like 1.5" snow here in Dobbs Ferry. I certainly wouldn't give up yet. For those who think winter is over: -SN 35.2/32 coating on the cars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Why do people think winter is over on March 9th when there's a coastal showing up at Day 6 on all models and another potential threat with 850s dropping near -10C at Day 9/10? Mostly likely because the majority of this forum does not live at the ear popping elevation you live at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Mostly likely because the majority of this forum does not live at the ear popping elevation you live at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 NYC and north received 4"-8" on Feb. 21st. People keep forgetting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Yep. I got 4" on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 NYC and north received 4"-8" on Feb. 21st. People keep forgetting that. Luckily I was in SE PA for the 2nd wave of that week, CNJ got screwed both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Mostly likely because the majority of this forum does not live at the ear popping elevation you live at LOL...we also had a decent event on 2/21. Most people got 3-5", right? I had 8" here and I know there was one 9" report from NNJ from a poster here. That was a great event with heavy powder snows falling in NYC metro, and really a surprise to get that much. It didn't seem like a big snowstorm compared to the December 26th, January 12th, and January 27th events, but an 8" storm is a great one for this area...I've had some seasons here that didn't even had one 8" snowfall. Amazing how spoiled we have become. People may make fun of my elevation obsession, but I'm just a microclimate guy. Spent a lot of time growing up in NE PA where you can quickly go from 1000' on the Delaware River to 2300' hiking a ridgeline, always learned to recognize the difference there and with early season/late season events in Vermont. Campus was in the valley at 350' in Central VT, but there was a 800' hill nearby that we always used to hike during marginal snowstorms, and it was fascinating to observe the changes as you left the valley floor. Besides, a few hundred feet of elevation and being in a wooded area really makes a difference here...those few hundred feet are critical when you live near the ocean and in urban environments. It's why I got 26" in the Snowicane instead of the 18-20" reported across much of Westchester. I just love seeing this microclimates play out, even here where the hills are small. I also feel like you have given up on winter early. Are you not tracking the Day 6 threat, John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 LOL...we also had a decent event on 2/21. Most people got 3-5", right? I had 8" here and I know there was one 9" report from NNJ from a poster here. That was a great event with heavy powder snows falling in NYC metro, and really a surprise to get that much. It didn't seem like a big snowstorm compared to the December 26th, January 12th, and January 27th events, but an 8" storm is a great one for this area...I've had some seasons here that didn't even had one 8" snowfall. Amazing how spoiled we have become. People may make fun of my elevation obsession, but I'm just a microclimate guy. Spent a lot of time growing up in NE PA where you can quickly go from 1000' on the Delaware River to 2300' hiking a ridgeline, always learned to recognize the difference there and with early season/late season events in Vermont. Campus was in the valley at 350' in Central VT, but there was a 800' hill nearby that we always used to hike during marginal snowstorms, and it was fascinating to observe the changes as you left the valley floor. Besides, a few hundred feet of elevation and being in a wooded area really makes a difference here...those few hundred feet are critical when you live near the ocean and in urban environments. It's why I got 26" in the Snowicane instead of the 18-20" reported across much of Westchester. I just love seeing this microclimates play out, even here where the hills are small. I also feel like you have given up on winter early. Are you not tracking the Day 6 threat, John? GFS completely lost day 6 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I've been watching that D 6 threat for awhile. it's been on the GFS in some form for several days now, which is good. Good news is the PNA looks more favorable next week, and we've got beautiful strong HP sprawling W-E to our north. Let's get the short wave to remain open, and a bit further north, with a close off near MD/VA, that'd be ideal. Right now the close off occurs too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I've been watching that D 6 threat for awhile. it's been on the GFS in some form for several days now, which is good. Good news is the PNA looks more favorable next week, and we've got beautiful strong HP sprawling W-E to our north. Let's get the short wave to remain open, and a bit further north, with a close off near MD/VA, that'd be ideal. Right now the close off occurs too far south. Actually, the most ideal setup for an all out blizzard: H500 gets open, then goes closed, neutral tilt until AL/GA location, then forms a cutoff low; goes on a negative tilt...... viola... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Why do people think winter is over on March 9th when there's a coastal showing up at Day 6 on all models and another potential threat with 850s dropping near -10C at Day 9/10? This area almost always receives accumulating snow in March, and we haven't had any yet, so we're bound to see at least one minor event. Even the blowtorch March 2010 had like 1.5" snow here in Dobbs Ferry. I certainly wouldn't give up yet. For those who think winter is over: -SN 35.2/32 coating on the cars... My snow stuff is all away, have not plowed since jan 27th...got the screw for feb 21st.......pretty mild febuary outside a ice event on the 2nd that was the highlight for the month and end of winter conditions imby. You change your thoughts more then i change my underwear. One day you post lr sucks, next ur in the sne thread saying day 11 blah blah blah......nate i respect ur thoughts, but you need to drop it. The winter is over for our location and idc if ur 400ft above sea level......just because it can snow in march, does not mean we are going to get it. The 00z gfs has lost the day day 6 threat and then slides the high offshore...dont see how i get snow out of a set-up like that....the last month and a week has lived up to ur winter outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 My snow stuff is all away, have not plowed since jan 27th...got the screw for feb 21st.......pretty mild febuary outside a ice event on the 2nd that was the highlight for the month and end of winter conditions imby. You change your thoughts more then i change my underwear. One day you post lr sucks, next ur in the sne thread saying day 11 blah blah blah......nate i respect ur thoughts, but you need to drop it. The winter is over for our location and idc if ur 400ft above sea level......just because it can snow in march, does not mean we are going to get it. The 00z gfs has lost the day day 6 threat and then slides the high offshore...dont see how i get snow out of a set-up like that....the last month and a week has lived up to ur winter outlook Basically agree Tim, have thought winter was essentially over for awhile now. With that said, next week's system is probably the best shot we've had since early feb (and thats not saying much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Next weeks storm is a long shot at best. You basically need the shortwave to cut off from a pattern which has 570dm H5 heights into the Central United States, slow down and produce a CCB, but be fast enough to avoid the mid level warming which is occurring with the ridge building out west. Not likely at all. If you ask me, winter is over. Unless you live on Mt. Zucker, where they get snow flurries in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Guys, this thread is for this upcoming rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Guys, this thread is for this upcoming rainstorm. Thanks, we know, there's some room for discussion on the pattern around the system and a few days after it. Here's tonights GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Next weeks storm is a long shot at best. You basically need the shortwave to cut off from a pattern which has 570dm H5 heights into the Central United States, slow down and produce a CCB, but be fast enough to avoid the mid level warming which is occurring with the ridge building out west. Not likely at all. If you ask me, winter is over. Unless you live on Mt. Zucker, where they get snow flurries in August. There could be some weenie snow when the ULL goes overhead from this system. Probably wouldn't accumulate much, but someone could see a coating to an inch if it worked out well....except 6-10" on Mt. Zucker at 380 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 There could be some weenie snow when the ULL goes overhead from this system. Probably wouldn't accumulate much, but someone could see a coating to an inch if it worked out well....except 6-10" on Mt. Zucker at 380 feet. Yeah, that's pretty much what I was thinking too. The ULL is a good shot for at least some flurries/etc. But I find it hard to believe the cutoff type scenario is going to produce snow. Even on the 18z GFS which had the cutoff and shortwave--look at the heights in the MS Valley. Not much room to work with. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 GFS shows 2"+ QPF for NYC west...looks like moderate flooding for most of the metro with some more serious issues in NNJ and E PA. Models seem to be pretty steady for this storm in terms of banding and precipitation totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I've been watching that D 6 threat for awhile. it's been on the GFS in some form for several days now, which is good. Good news is the PNA looks more favorable next week, and we've got beautiful strong HP sprawling W-E to our north. Let's get the short wave to remain open, and a bit further north, with a close off near MD/VA, that'd be ideal. Right now the close off occurs too far south. I was talking to someone the other day from the site, basiclly talk about how you have a very unbias way of looking at things....and i remember you saying right after the feb 2nd event it was over......and i believe dt pretty much said the same thing........Your short term lr thoughts this winter has been very good 38 here.....and .05 in the bucket from that band before...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 One thing is for sure--we are going to see a pretty dramatic cutoff in QPF just to the east of the convergence zone where the models show the heavy QPF. The boundary really slows for a while and that's where you're getting these insane QPF amounts from with the ample moisture and lift. But once this feature lifts east it accelerates pretty rapidly and the H5 trough orients in a way that you're more likely to get a fine line of convection moving northeast with the feature as opposed to synoptic heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I was talking to someone the other day from the site, basiclly talk about how you have a very unbias way of looking at things....and i remember you saying right after the feb 2nd event it was over......and i believe dt pretty much said the same thing........Your short term lr thoughts this winter has been very good Yeah I agree...there are definitely some people here who were screaming winter was over Dec 20th, and then there are those who are still talking about major snowfall events. Isotherm luckily falls right in between, that's where the good forecasters usually wind up anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Yeah I agree...there are definitely some people here who were screaming winter was over Dec 20th, and then there are those who are still talking about major snowfall events. Isotherm luckily falls right in between, that's where the good forecasters usually wind up anyways. This winter is another learning tool....just like '08-'09 was. Most were obsessed with a warmish pattern for January and it ended up exactly the opposite. Though I'm not sure how much we can actually "learn" from it other than that long range still has a long ways to go in accuracy. Even for those who thought January might not torch...it was partially "right for the wrong reasons"...as not many saw a big +PNA coming. At any rate, I don't to clutter this thread too much about LR winter forecasts, but its been an interesting year regardless. Someone in NW NJ is probably going to see a ton of heavy rain from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Yeah I agree...there are definitely some people here who were screaming winter was over Dec 20th, and then there are those who are still talking about major snowfall events. Isotherm luckily falls right in between, that's where the good forecasters usually wind up anyways. Unless you're Joe Bastardi, of course. But the problem is and will always be: the upstream pattern is crap. no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 GFS completely lost day 6 threat. Not really...the shortwave is still there at 120 hours but just looks weaker. We could see this evolve into a clipper/overrunning type threat instead of the idea of a big coastal with a cut-off low. I'd gladly take that as it means the storm would move faster and get here before the warmth in the MS Valley moves Northeast. Earthlight has a very good point that we have high heights moving in so we need the system to rapidly amplify and approach us, otherwise it will just be light rain. We don't want this to cut-off and meander around for ages....a speedy clipper could actually do the trick here with a nice 2-4" snowfall to get the bitter tastes out of our mouths. Here is 120 hours from the 0z GFS: My snow stuff is all away, have not plowed since jan 27th...got the screw for feb 21st.......pretty mild febuary outside a ice event on the 2nd that was the highlight for the month and end of winter conditions imby. You change your thoughts more then i change my underwear. One day you post lr sucks, next ur in the sne thread saying day 11 blah blah blah......nate i respect ur thoughts, but you need to drop it. The winter is over for our location and idc if ur 400ft above sea level......just because it can snow in march, does not mean we are going to get it. The 00z gfs has lost the day day 6 threat and then slides the high offshore...dont see how i get snow out of a set-up like that....the last month and a week has lived up to ur winter outlook Maybe you need to drop it....Just because I want to discuss winter weather on a winter weather board in early March doesn't mean I should be vilified. I honestly didn't think February was that bad up here; it was clearly a let-down compared to the other months, but I did have 2" of snow followed by .5" ice on 2/2-2/3, and then an 8" snowstorm on 2/21. Temperatures were above average because of the mid-month torch but also had some windy and cold conditions at the start and end of the month. Definitely some great winter scenery with the deep snowpack coated in thick, glistening ice after the 2/3 SW flow event, and then the beautiful powder snow on 2/21 that ended up getting deep. One has to change his thoughts often in late-season winter forecasting. I agree that the pattern is mediocre, and I have said since early February that we've seen a breakdown in blocking from the AO/NAO which means fewer snow chances and less sustained cold for NYC metro. I think I have acknowledged quite well that the La Niña has taken more control of the pattern and that it's been a tale of two winters. But this often doesn't matter once you get into March because you can see a tendency towards sudden cut-off lows, and the teleconnections mean less since the shorter wavelengths in the migrating jet stream garble the usual signals. You have to be alert for sudden threats. This area averages 5-10" snow in March so there's no reason to think we're totally done. I remember some awesome Marches including 2004 and 2001, as well as a few April events. Never say die buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 You can see the band of rain starting to set-up down by DC streaming north....... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes there is def a sharp cutt-off to the east as what has been talk about the last few days and what john just posted about........ http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=dix&loop=yes I believe last sept we had a similiar storm and we watch the brunt of the rain to our west all day long until the line moved east......perhaps the metro area will be speared the higher range of the 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 euro 00z run is 2+ for nyc west...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 euro 00z run is 2+ for nyc west...fwiw Do you have exact QPF amounts for HPN, NYC, and EWR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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