bluewave Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 You can see the very strong training signal on the GFS that occurs right around the time H5 low is closing off. I would not be surprised to see the models underestimating the QPF for the areas that get the best training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 When looking at river forecasts, just remember they are generated by computers and usually end up being way off. Last March we were forecasted to crest at ~16'. We crested at ~22-23'. Earlier this week we were forecasted to crest at 14.4" as of Sunday. We ended up at ~20-21'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 How's the wind aspect for this storm? Here in edison there is a nice sustained wind now, wonder if this will increase or hold steady the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12z GFS has 2.57" QPF over KMMU. Up very slightly from 2.50" at 6z. Not good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Turkey Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I live up in Ringwood, and I'm frequently driving either on Route 23 or along the Passaic River in Paterson. I fully expect both roads to be closed for all or part of Thursday and Friday. Does anyone know if local or county police/OEM need volunteers to assist with anything? I don't really have any training, but would be willing to help if things get really bad this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 euro is 2+ from nyc west Its alot wetter for the metro area then 00z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 euro is 2+ from nyc west Its alot wetter for the metro area then 00z was How much at KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12z euro qpf from soundings: LGA: 2.15" EWR: 2.20" MMU: 2.52" ABE: 2.61" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 How much at KMMU? def close to 2.5, i dont have exact numbers. ag3 will have that, i go off the sv maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12z euro qpf from soundings: LGA: 2.15" EWR: 2.20" MMU: 2.52" ABE: 2.61" BDR and HPN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 BDR and HPN? BDR: 1.39" HPN: 2.14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 12z SPC WRF has a ton of rain with the best stuff still back to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I don't say this too often, this is an extremely dangerous life threatening situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The Canadian high to the north maxed out very close to 1050 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Do we know the timing? I know some models were showing it as more of a 2 part event with some rain tonight and tomorrow and then another batch towards Friday. 2 to 2.5" spread out over 36 hours might be our saving grace, although it isn't going to help the rivers in any way euro is 2+ from nyc west Its alot wetter for the metro area then 00z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I don't say this too often, this is an extremely dangerous life threatening situation. at least nzucker will be safe at 401ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 High res simulated radar at hr 48 Precip already fallen through 48hrs - easily 4-5" over NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Do we know the timing? I know some models were showing it as more of a 2 part event with some rain tonight and tomorrow and then another batch towards Friday. 2 to 2.5" spread out over 36 hours might be our saving grace, although it isn't going to help the rivers in any way we get prob .25-.50 for the first part tonight into tommorrow AM. The rest is from tommorrow afternoon into friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Turkey Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 High res simulated radar at hr 48 Precip already fallen through 48hrs - easily 4-5" over NJ You know things are bad when it starts approaching yellow on the color scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 at least nzucker will be safe at 401ft ....... until the Tsunami comes up through the Hudson River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Hi-res models like the NMM are good to use for banding signals but often overdo the QPF at this range; I'd be cautious to forecast more than 3" jackpots but would definitely put the heaviest rain in C/N NJ as this seems to be agreeing well with the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The good news is, the high res is likely overdone. The bad news is, that its still pouring at hr 48 and even at half value it probably ends up being 3-4" +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 at least nzucker will be safe at 401ft Yeah these events don't interest me at all, just runs down the hill. The only bad part is it closes the Saw Mill Parkway for days which makes it impossible to get to work Too bad there won't be many flakes in the Westchester Alps tonight, not that you would see them anyways. More interested in the Day 6/7 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Yeah these events don't interest me at all, just runs down the hill. The only bad part is it closes the Saw Mill Parkway for days which makes it impossible to get to work Too bad there won't be many flakes in the Westchester Alps tonight, not that you would see them anyways. More interested in the Day 6/7 threat. Westchester roads are horrible with flooding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 does anyone know what model the river forecasts are based off of? Right now they are not giving forecasts beyond 36hrs except for the main rivers which always recieve forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Westchester roads are horrible with flooding! Yeah the Saw Mill/Taconic pretty much suck if it rains which makes some places very hard to access. There is always a closure just past the 287/87 interchange that gums things up. Hutchinson and Bronx River Parkways are also hazardous when heavy rains occur in the County, especially with the repeated moisture like we've had this season with 25" snowpack melting and then three major rainstorms in a row. Route 9 and the Thruway stay in good shape though, which means you're never totally screwed around my area of SW Westchester. It does become extremely hard in the eastern sections of the County to commute since there aren't a lot of options to the Bronx River/Hutch except for always crowded 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Yeah the Saw Mill/Taconic pretty much suck if it rains which makes some places very hard to access. There is always a closure just past the 287/87 interchange that gums things up. Hutchinson and Bronx River Parkways are also hazardous when heavy rains occur in the County, especially with the repeated moisture like we've had this season with 25" snowpack melting and then three major rainstorms in a row. Route 9 and the Thruway stay in good shape though, which means you're never totally screwed around my area of SW Westchester. It does become extremely hard in the eastern sections of the County to commute since there aren't a lot of options to the Bronx River/Hutch except for always crowded 95. yea... the big problem area in Rockland is always on Route 59 in front of the Palisades mall. I have this Rockland County history book and it has pictures of epic floods that took place in that area back in like 1900. It's pretty amazing. They are doing major road construction in that area now and trying to address the water drainage... The mall is in a huge valley so the water collects very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I think for you guys this is going to be one hell of a flooding event. The Susquehanna in NEPA is in big trouble too. Convection is going to be tough to nail down so everyone from W CT to NE PA is in the game for major flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 This might be old news for most, but I found the new Ensemble-forecasting page for river forecasts. Here's Pine Brook's page. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/marfc/GEFS/html/PINN4.html GEFS NAEFS SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Not sure why the coastal flooding threat is being brushed aside by the NWS. Winds have increased significantly today - up to 27 mph with gusts to 34 mph at Shinnecock Inlet on eastern LI. We have about 40 hours more of E/SE winds at 20-30 mph, which will continue to pile water up, esp. along the South Shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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