March 10 - March 11 Redux Event

[IsentropicLift]

The new GFS has come in ever so slightly lower on the QPF totals, but not by much

[tornadojay]

0z euro has about 1-1.25 inches

[gravitylover]

I just spent the last two days pumping out my basement. Another 2-4" and I'm gonna be watching my house float down the f'n hill

[rgwp96]

Those estimates were from OEM and forwarded by our Chief. Please don't give out info just based on your hunch or estimate when you have no clue what your talking about.

i have plenty of weather friends that do and who take core samples and who will tell your oem is full of ****.  9 inches of liquid in the moth of feb?  their was no snow on the ground before feb.  Stop with all the bs you post please. 

[rgwp96]

Check out this modeled SWE product from NOHRSC from March 9 2010. If my eyes are reading the colors correctly, it shows widespread 2"-4" SWEs, with some localized areas of 4"-6". I think 9" is pushing it, but 3"-6" is nothing to scoff at, especially with the 4"-5"+ of rain that then fell with the mid-March storm!

yes it was 3-4 inches based on what part of the town it was taken from.  9 inches is such  a  huge inflated number

[rgwp96]

How could most places have had 9" of liquid in their snowpack? There wasn't even any snow on the ground here at 400' in Westchester before the 2/25 Snowicane; sure, that storm dumped like 3" liquid in many areas, some of which had previous snowpack, but 9" seems to be pushing it?

because the guys an exaggerator. hes the same guy who said west milford had 36 inch snowpack earlier this year when in fact it was 15 and their total to that point was only 26 for the year.  good thing he likes floods and not fires, he would probably start fires on purpose to get the thrill of seing them

[IsentropicLift]

I'm going to take the high road rather than get into a heated debate over semantics. Right or wrong, those are the numbers we were given. I know that in northern Passaic County last year, they saw alot more snow than I did. For the love of god, I don't like floods. I spent 11 hours on Monday pulling people out of houses and going to get people who drove there car's through flooded roadways and got stuck. Believe me, it's not fun. For the last time, I love severe weather, regardless of what form it takes. Not that I don't feel bad for those that are affected, but WE HAVE NO CONTROL OVER WHAT HAPPENS!

The flooding last year hit #2 all time in my area. We only got about ~4" of rain and had no snow in the ground in our immediate area. Obviously there was alot of runoff.

[ag3]

0z euro has about 1-1.25 inches

Soundings for LGA show 1.73" of rain from 0z euro.

1.80" for Newark

[IsentropicLift]

Soundings for LGA show 1.73" of rain from 0z euro.

1.80" for Newark

The Euro seems to be on the western side of solutions the last few runs. It has some support from the GGEM and the 06z GFS. The 12z runs today will be huge.

Edit: The NAM seems ot have joined the western camp through 39hrs.

[ag3]

The Euro seems to be on the western side of solutions the last few runs. It has some support from the GGEM and the 06z GFS. The 12z runs today will be huge.

6z NAM and Euro are almost identical qpf amounts for NYC vicinity.

[IsentropicLift]

6z NAM and Euro are almost identical qpf amounts for NYC vicinity.

The closest site to my houe is KMMU. I would think this total is higher than the Euro.

06z NAM text soundings. 3.80" of rain.

110310/0700Z 25 10013KT 33.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 70| 0| 30

110310/0800Z 26 10013KT 32.9F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.01|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 14| 43| 43

110310/0900Z 27 10012KT 33.1F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 1| 41| 58

110310/1000Z 28 10012KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1100Z 29 10012KT 33.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1200Z 30 10012KT 33.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.020|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110310/1300Z 31 09014KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.031|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1400Z 32 10014KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.035|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1500Z 33 10014KT 36.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.055|| 0.19 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1600Z 34 10014KT 37.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.059|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1700Z 35 10013KT 39.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.055|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1800Z 36 10014KT 40.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.055|| 0.35 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

110310/1900Z 37 11015KT 42.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.055|| 0.41 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2000Z 38 11015KT 43.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.055|| 0.46 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2100Z 39 11017KT 43.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.079|| 0.54 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2200Z 40 11016KT 44.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.055|| 0.60 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2300Z 41 11016KT 44.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.130|| 0.73 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0000Z 42 11017KT 45.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.185|| 0.91 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/0100Z 43 11018KT 45.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.217|| 1.13 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0200Z 44 11019KT 45.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.169|| 1.30 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0300Z 45 11019KT 45.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.150|| 1.45 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0400Z 46 12018KT 46.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.217|| 1.67 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0500Z 47 12019KT 46.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.205|| 1.87 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0600Z 48 12019KT 46.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.154|| 2.02 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/0700Z 49 12020KT 47.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.134|| 2.16 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0800Z 50 12019KT 47.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.217|| 2.37 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0900Z 51 13019KT 48.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.209|| 2.58 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1000Z 52 13019KT 48.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 2.68 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1100Z 53 13018KT 48.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.075|| 2.75 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1200Z 54 13015KT 49.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.311|| 3.06 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/1300Z 55 14010KT 49.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.476|| 3.54 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1400Z 56 14009KT 48.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.213|| 3.75 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1500Z 57 13009KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.043|| 3.80 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1600Z 58 12009KT 48.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.80 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110311/1700Z 59 15006KT 50.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 3.80 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1800Z 60 19005KT 50.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 3.80 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/1900Z 61 24009KT 50.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.80 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110311/2000Z 62 26011KT 47.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.80 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110311/2100Z 63 27010KT 47.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.80 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

[ag3]

The closest site to my houe is KMMU. I would think this total is higher than the Euro.

Sorry. I meant immediate area. EWR, LGA, NYC, OKX.

MMU is 1.99" on euro.

[IsentropicLift]

New NAM misses us to the west initially, but then makes up for it after the low passes. End result will be QPF totals that fit inside the forecast envelope of 2-3" with locally higher amounts possible west of NYC.

[IsentropicLift]

Sorry. I meant immediate area. EWR, LGA, NYC, OKX.

MMU is 1.99" on euro.

No problem, I often find myself on the fence since I live on the border between Mt. Holly and Upton CWA's. The Euro definitly has less than the NAM. The NAM was well west with the last event until it eventually caved to the GFS. Per Rainshadow on the Philly thread, the GGEM performed the best with the last event. It will be interesting to see which model wins this battle. Normally I would favor the NAM in this range but none of the models seem to be performing well this year.

[Brian5671]

New NAM misses us to the west initially, but then makes up for it after the low passes. End result will be QPF totals that fit inside the forecast envelope of 2-3" with locally higher amounts possible west of NYC.

Total QPF map?

[IsentropicLift]

Total QPF map?

Have to wait for the text soundings, but my guess is numbers dropped about 0.5"-1.0" from 06z. Could be the difference between major flooding and historic flooding.

[Allsnow]

Total QPF map?

Its about a inch of rain for you brian....and around .75-1 for all of sne......biggest rain is in eastern pa.......ggem has been pretty good for the the last two rain event......gfs and nam seem like they have had the axis to far east....I think we watch the magority of the rain out west all day tommorrow...until it swings through and we get a quick inch

[IsentropicLift]

Yeah I agree, the models have also been trending towards a longer duration event with precip lasting well into Friday. Luckily, the precip that we get after the low passes us is not as intense. We have to be careful though, I don't remember any model giving SE upstate NY over 3" of rain and look what happened.

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

[IsentropicLift]

We just got a briefing from our Chief. I'll post it here. Sounds like the QPF totals are a tad higher than what the latest models show.

All,

As you may be aware, we are expected to receive more rain starting Wednesday night through Friday morning. The heaviest amount of rain is supposed to fall during the day on Thursday. NWS has already started posting on their website that the Pompton River at Pompton Plains is expected to start rising again between 1pm and 7pm Thursday afternoon. Following that track, we would most likely enter Action Stage (13ft) again around 3am Friday morning and Flood State (16ft) later that day. Depending on the rate of rainfall, entering Flood Stage could occur very quickly.

As Thursday progresses, please keep an eye on the flood data and I will communicate with you based on what information I receive. All indications I have received so far show us receiving between 3 to 4 inches of rain. If we receive that amount of rain, it may put us at a record flood height. Please see the attached weather briefing for more information on the expected rainfall.

If at all possible, please keep yourselves available for flood evacuation support for Friday. We will most likely need all hands on deck to support the flood operations.

If you are able to confirm that you will be around Friday to assist, please let me know via email so plans can start being made for mutual aid support for both flood operations and fire suppression, should we need it.

Thank you ahead of time for your help and support…

Dave Reeves

Chief – Pequannock Township Engine Co. #2

[IsentropicLift]

I was wrong, text soundings from the 12z NAM still support well over 3" of rain at KMMU

110310/0700Z 31 10013KT 33.4F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 26| 40| 34

110310/0800Z 32 10012KT 33.4F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 1| 40| 59

110310/0900Z 33 10012KT 33.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1000Z 34 10011KT 33.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1100Z 35 10012KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1200Z 36 10012KT 34.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.035|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

110310/1300Z 37 10013KT 34.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.075|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1400Z 38 10014KT 35.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 0.25 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1500Z 39 10014KT 36.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.083|| 0.33 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1600Z 40 10014KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.087|| 0.42 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1700Z 41 10014KT 38.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 0.51 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1800Z 42 10015KT 39.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 0.60 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110310/1900Z 43 11016KT 40.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 0.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2000Z 44 11015KT 41.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.106|| 0.80 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2100Z 45 11015KT 41.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.098|| 0.90 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2200Z 46 10014KT 41.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.173|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2300Z 47 10014KT 42.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.252|| 1.33 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0000Z 48 10016KT 43.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.236|| 1.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/0100Z 49 11016KT 44.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.220|| 1.78 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0200Z 50 12018KT 46.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.228|| 2.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0300Z 51 12018KT 46.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.256|| 2.27 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0400Z 52 12019KT 46.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.217|| 2.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0500Z 53 12019KT 47.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.118|| 2.60 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0600Z 54 12019KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.102|| 2.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/0700Z 55 12020KT 48.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.232|| 2.94 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0800Z 56 14018KT 49.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.315|| 3.25 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0900Z 57 14013KT 48.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.209|| 3.46 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1000Z 58 14011KT 48.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.122|| 3.58 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1100Z 59 14009KT 48.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.063|| 3.65 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1200Z 60 13010KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 3.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/1300Z 61 12009KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 3.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1400Z 62 13009KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.031|| 3.69 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1500Z 63 14008KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 3.71 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1600Z 64 16007KT 48.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1700Z 65 18006KT 48.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1800Z 66 19006KT 49.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/1900Z 67 21008KT 50.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110311/2000Z 68 21009KT 52.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110311/2100Z 69 23010KT 50.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110311/2200Z 70 24009KT 48.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

[Edge Weather]

How can this possibly differ so much from the model graphic that shows Morristown being at about 2.5-3 inches? 3.72 inches would cause devastating flooding.

I was wrong, text soundings from the 12z NAM still support well over 3" of rain at KMMU

110310/0700Z 31 10013KT 33.4F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 26| 40| 34

110310/0800Z 32 10012KT 33.4F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 1| 40| 59

110310/0900Z 33 10012KT 33.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1000Z 34 10011KT 33.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1100Z 35 10012KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1200Z 36 10012KT 34.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.035|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

110310/1300Z 37 10013KT 34.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.075|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1400Z 38 10014KT 35.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 0.25 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1500Z 39 10014KT 36.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.083|| 0.33 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1600Z 40 10014KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.087|| 0.42 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1700Z 41 10014KT 38.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 0.51 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/1800Z 42 10015KT 39.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 0.60 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110310/1900Z 43 11016KT 40.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 0.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2000Z 44 11015KT 41.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.106|| 0.80 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2100Z 45 11015KT 41.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.098|| 0.90 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2200Z 46 10014KT 41.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.173|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110310/2300Z 47 10014KT 42.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.252|| 1.33 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0000Z 48 10016KT 43.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.236|| 1.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/0100Z 49 11016KT 44.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.220|| 1.78 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0200Z 50 12018KT 46.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.228|| 2.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0300Z 51 12018KT 46.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.256|| 2.27 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0400Z 52 12019KT 46.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.217|| 2.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0500Z 53 12019KT 47.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.118|| 2.60 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0600Z 54 12019KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.102|| 2.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/0700Z 55 12020KT 48.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.232|| 2.94 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0800Z 56 14018KT 49.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.315|| 3.25 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/0900Z 57 14013KT 48.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.209|| 3.46 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1000Z 58 14011KT 48.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.122|| 3.58 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1100Z 59 14009KT 48.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.063|| 3.65 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1200Z 60 13010KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 3.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/1300Z 61 12009KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 3.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1400Z 62 13009KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.031|| 3.69 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1500Z 63 14008KT 48.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 3.71 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1600Z 64 16007KT 48.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1700Z 65 18006KT 48.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110311/1800Z 66 19006KT 49.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110311/1900Z 67 21008KT 50.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110311/2000Z 68 21009KT 52.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110311/2100Z 69 23010KT 50.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110311/2200Z 70 24009KT 48.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 3.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

[NJwinter23]

I'm interested in the wind potential with this, particularly as the back edge of the heavy rain swings through Friday morning around 12z give or take. On 12z nam at hr 48 we already have a nice surface pressure gradient, and there is also a solid low level jet overhead 60-70kts as low as 950mb. The inversion on the soundings would keep the strong gusts aloft bottled up I'd guess, but if we get the heavy rain and a squall line comes through then we could mix some good gusts down.

[IsentropicLift]

How can this possibly differ so much from the model graphic that shows Morristown being at about 2.5-3 inches? 3.72 inches would cause devastating flooding.

I was a tad suprised myself. I actually got all the way out of it and went back in to make sure I was looking at the updated sounding. Perhaps there is a bullseye over north Jersey that is hard to see without looking at a very zoomed in graphic.

[IsentropicLift]

From the graphic, looks like GFS came in about the same as the NAM. It has the 3.00"+ totals a tad further east than the NAM.

[tmagan]

12Z RGEM Total Rain through 48 hours.

[IsentropicLift]

12Z RGEM Total Rain through 48 hours.

That's a significant increase over the watch area

[LocoAko]

12Z RGEM Total Rain through 48 hours.

Wow, what a large area of 4"+ totals!

[bluewave]

The rain max on the 12z GFS is right along the PA/NJ border.

[gkrangers]

These should be PDS flood watches.

[LocoAko]

Forecast has it exceeding last March's flood height.