earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 What could happen? The winds could blow so hard that our climate would be altered significantly and Nzucker would be at sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Rainmageddon. Rainpocalypse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 People are gonna stay up until 4am to see a 15 minute burst of convection? I know John will but anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 People are gonna stay up until 4am to see a 15 minute burst of convection? I know John will but anyone else? I'll be staying up or waking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'll likely begin evacuations by then. The river has just begun rising as of the last hour. Based on radar, it likely hits flood stage by late tonight, about 12hrs ahead of forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'll likely begin evacuations by then. The river has just begun rising as of the last hour. Based on radar, it likely hits flood stage by late tonight, about 12hrs ahead of forecast. What river do you live near? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'll guess since he lives in Pompton Plains, it would be the Pompton... but the Ramapo and Passaic run through that area as well, so i won't be a smartass. What river do you live near? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The Pompton River, and allthough the last observed tabular data does not indicate a rise as of yet, steady moderate precip has been falling for the better part of an hour so the 12:15 observation will likely show a rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The winds could blow so hard that our climate would be altered significantly and Nzucker would be at sea level. All 400 feet of it? Haha how strong can winds be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Good luck to anyone involved in the flooding. The folks that are saying that it will not be that bad, really need to wake up to reality. Just because you dont live in a flood prone area does not make this a nothing storm. Even if it was only an inch of rain, thats still alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Rain has really pick up here. Radar looks to be solid for heavy rain in cnj and nnj for the next several hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Absolutly pouring now here in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I know they usualy over do it but it still keying in on the same areas 12z NMM totals 12 ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 If even 2/3 of that verifies over NNJ and S CT, both areas are in deep doo-doo. I know they usualy over do it but it still keying in on the same areas 12z NMM totals 12 ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 How come I'm still on a 5 post limit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Flood watch NYC area except Suffolk 000 WGUS61 KOKX 101643 FFAOKX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1143 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL HEADED THIS WAY... .LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLUGGISHLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. NYZ072>075-176>179-110545- /O.EXB.KOKX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-110311T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS- SOUTHERN NASSAU- 1143 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS EXPANDED THE * FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SOUTHERN QUEENS. * THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE ALSO FEASIBLE. * THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THIS MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-110545- /O.CON.KOKX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-110311T2300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD- SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON- WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 1143 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX... EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN... WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM... ROCKLAND AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. * THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO FEASIBLE. * DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE AT HIGH LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOIL WILL RESULT IN HIGH RUNOFF RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 New Euro has only 1.24" for NYC. 1.64" for MMU Eastern PA around ABE is 2.05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 New Euro has only 1.24" for NYC. 1.64" for MMU Eastern PA around ABE is 2.05" current radar supports more......in any event, time to stop looking at models. I could have posted earlier that the latest GFS has 2.0-2.5" of additional rainfall for the city on westward but its a moot point now. The Euro has been on the lower end of guidance with this whole event for some reason. If anything, trust the NAM or the high res short term models. Personally watching the radar is the best model right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 current radar supports more......in any event, time to stop looking at models. I could have posted earlier that the latest GFS has 2.0-2.5" of additional rainfall for the city on westward but its a moot point now. The Euro has been on the lower end of guidance with this whole event for some reason. If anything, trust the NAM or the high res short term models. Personally watching the radar is the best model right now. Just posting data. Euro has the best verification of QPF hours 0-6. Not arguing. Just posting data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 12z GFS actually had 2.86" of additional QPF for KMMU. Probably underdone considering the dynamics the NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Just posting data. Euro has the best verification of QPF hours 0-6. Not arguing. Just posting data. I'm suprised that it has the best verification inside 6 hours. I would think it would be the NAM or one of the short term high res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'm suprised that it has the best verification inside 6 hours. I would think it would be the NAM or one of the short term high res. Euro and Srefs. It was posted in the main forum a couple months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Steady rises have begun Observed Data:|Date(UTC)||Stage||--Flow-|03/10 18:1511.29ft2.51kcfs03/10 18:0011.24ft2.47kcfs03/10 17:4511.21ft2.44kcfs03/10 17:3011.18ft2.41kcfs03/10 17:1511.16ft2.4kcfs03/10 17:0011.13ft2.37kcfs03/10 16:4511.12ft2.37kcfs03/10 16:3011.1ft2.35kcfs03/10 16:1511.11ft2.36kcfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 For whatever reason the 12z SPC WRF didn't run yet...bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 For whatever reason the 12z SPC WRF didn't run yet...bummer It was showing 12" rain totals so HPC scrapped it and said it had "initialization errors" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'm suprised that it has the best verification inside 6 hours. I would think it would be the NAM or one of the short term high res. NAM and the High Res models have pretty much been awful even in the very short term. I'd prefer to use the SREF's for something more reliable or even the RUC which has been solid in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 1.28 inches so far in Blairstown, Warren County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 New NAM coming in with 2-2.5" of rain additional from western LI to about the NJ/PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Turkey Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 If this were a snowstorm, everyone would be complaining about a relative dry-slot about to cover NJ. Any thoughts on when that big line up through PA will begin to shift/pivot towards NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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