tornadojay Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The GFS has continued to advertise a potential heavy rain event late next week, while the Euro has a more progressive system. The current 0Z GFS has an impressive cutoff system developing in response to a piece of energy diving southeast along from the Northwest coast and then sharpening and cutting off in response a huge blocking pattern in the Atlanctic. Should the pattern evolve somewhat close to this solution, we could have a heavy QPF situation depending on where the best dynamics set up and park themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Jay, I love cutoff season, but its really too bad we don't have a decent setup aloft. because a cutoff snowstorm is all what we dream of.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 Jay, I love cutoff season, but its really too bad we don't have a decent setup aloft. because a cutoff snowstorm is all what we dream of.... yea.. what's interesting is that the GFS eventually develops this into a powerhouse low pressue in the 50/50 location and it almost looks like some blocking develops northward up towards Greenland.. too bad the Pacific still looks like garbage, but it's certainly an interesting evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 yea.. what's interesting is that the GFS eventually develops this into a powerhouse low pressue in the 50/50 location and it almost looks like some blocking develops northward up towards Greenland.. too bad the Pacific still looks like garbage, but it's certainly an interesting evolution. GFS still has the 15th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 GFS still has the 15th storm. yea.. that'll be interesting.. it's like a thread the needle chance... there is briefly a fairly decent set up with blocking north of us.. and then the pattern looks to go to hell after that... if this cutoff really evolves like the GFS is saying, we might have a 1-2 day window where we can get just enough cold air forced southward with a system at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 yea.. that'll be interesting.. it's like a thread the needle chance... there is briefly a fairly decent set up with blocking north of us.. and then the pattern looks to go to hell after that... if this cutoff really evolves like the GFS is saying, we might have a 1-2 day window where we can get just enough cold air forced southward with a system at the same time. yeah the blocking the cutoff low eventually creates is temporary, i would not get excited about any snow until next december honestly. But that cutoff monster could get pretty interesting to track if it evolves like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 I'm curious to see if the blocking over the Atlanctic, like the global GFS is saying, will materialize.. It is extremely impressive. If it does set up, then systems along the east coast will have no choice but to slow down and cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I'm curious to see if the blocking over the Atlanctic, like the global GFS is saying, will materialize.. It is extremely impressive. If it does set up, then systems along the east coast will have no choice but to slow down and cutoff. Ensembles almost unanimously agree with the idea of the day 8-9 snowstorm also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 Ensembles almost unanimously agree with the idea of the day 8-9 snowstorm also. interesting... rather impressive for such an agreement 8-9 days out... my guess is that all the members must also agree on the strength of the block over the Atlanctic, since that is what will be the key factor in all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 We have a problem with the ECMWF not buying this idea, however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 We have a problem with the ECMWF not buying this idea, however... yes, true.. I was just looking at the 500 mb NH plots from 12Z.. certainly, it has the massive block off the Atlanctic and sharpening trof developing, much like the GFS, however, it appears a bit weaker with the ejecting shortwave which creates the cutoff.. It actually does have a sense of a cutoff on the Euro, but it ends up being weak and over Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 500 mb spaghetti plots show that the operational GFS is much more amplified than it's other members and the mean, so it's likely that a lot of other members wouldn't have the cutoff scenario. I guess we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 they are actually all in good agreement on the overall setup.. the shortwave on the operational GFS is progged to be the strongest amongst its members which allows it amplify enough to close off... but even so, a majority of the members show a deep, negatively tilted trof, at the very least, which would suggest the potential of a slow moving system with good dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 this is not a classic block. Extremely east based maybe more like a western atlantic ridge. It will def. break up the fast flow, but I would suspect the cutoff is cutoff to the south and east of the area with this type of setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Is there any chance of this making all of us into a bunch of shovelers for the NYC area and Coastal areas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Is there any chance of this making all of us into a bunch of shovelers for the NYC area and Coastal areas ? 4 runs in a row, the GFS has a snowstorm right after this cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ says 3 - 10 inches possible the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 12z gfs shifts the cutofff to the south and east, makes sense given the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Biggest threat again looks to be widespread rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ says 3 - 10 inches possible the 15th Very slight chance. Under 30%. But given the recent trends of more blocking the second half of March, it does appear that at least one more shot of significant wintry precip is an increasing possibility but I'm not sure if it's the March 15th period or just a little later on. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The DGEX advertises the potential for flooding with this cutoff low--this is how we get some of our more classic flooding events http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Very slight chance. Under 30%. But given the recent trends of more blocking the second half of March, it does appear that at least one more shot of significant wintry precip is an increasing possibility but I'm not sure if it's the March 15th period or just a little later on. WX/PT Should be emphasized that when the models keep on delaying the idea of an event, usually it does not happen the way it is being depicted. And obviously, the later threat for the 18th-19th has for the first time popped up today, so at this point, one has to be skeptical. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Should be emphasized that when the models keep on delaying the idea of an event, usually it does not happen the way it is being depicted. And obviously, the later threat for the 18th-19th has for the first time popped up today, so at this point, one has to be skeptical. WX/PT IMO shouldn't even advertise it right now the GFS long range in March is very unreliable when used to predict frozen vs. liquid events longer range in any particular area.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 The DGEX advertises the potential for flooding with this cutoff low--this is how we get some of our more classic flooding events http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html model has been terrible even by its own standards lately. Had a good month in January, that was it. Euro hardly shows any type of cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 With such a strong blocking high near the Canadian Maritimes,a very slow moving or even closed off solution looks like it's in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 With such a strong blocking high near the Canadian Maritimes,a very slow moving or even closed off solution looks like it's in the cards. Does look like a classic coastal flooding set-up with a closed low trapped under a strong high pressure to the NE. Could also trend colder though if the surface front makes more progress east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Don't be surprise if late week storm is colder storm and white ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 radar upstream is really getting intense now, looks like some of those higher rain totals accross western sections will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 New NAM continues trend of giving us very heavy rain, if this were to verify, the rivers will end up well above current forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 New NAM continues trend of giving us very heavy rain, if this were to verify, the rivers will end up well above current forecasts wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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