yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 About 20 mins till the 0100 OTLK... should be interesting to see if the wind and/or tor probs are increased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 dews in the mid 50s now in dc area... temp steady or rising after some drops in rain. we should push 60 dew i'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The 0100 SPC OTLK... not encouraging at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The 0100 SPC OTLK... not encouraging at all mm, it's roughly the same here.. small tweaks. the 10% hatched area was unlikely to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 A VERY POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING EXTREME OVERNIGHT. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES...CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF GA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO CNTRL VA BY 12Z. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WHERE NON-ZERO SURFACE BASED CAPE EXISTS. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO CAPE FROM CNTRL VA NWD...TRUE NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS UNKNOWN AND MAY BEST BE APPROXIMATED IN REAL TIME BY INCORPORATING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INTO MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 mm, it's roughly the same here.. small tweaks. the 10% hatched area was unlikely to verify I meant the discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 one important thing to remember is that if the line comes through here at or after 12z tomorrow morning that will be covered by TOMORROW's SPC outlook (0600z issuance). The outlook only covers up until 12z the following day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 mm, it's roughly the same here.. small tweaks. the 10% hatched area was unlikely to verify The 2% tor was trimmed back as well as the slight. It had been north of DC before not it is roughly on DC with some trimmings on the northern end. What were we outlooked in on the 16/17th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I meant the discussion they're being bouncy.. too up to too down. it's not going to be an event like that morning one during the summer but we'll get something of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The 2% tor was trimmed back as well as the slight. It had been north of DC before not it is roughly on DC with some trimmings on the northern end. What were we outlooked in on the 16/17th? midday: http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20101116_2000.html evening: http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20101117_0100.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 midday: http://spc.noaa.gov/...01116_2000.html evening: http://spc.noaa.gov/...01117_0100.html Well the slight risk was farther away then than it is today. I would be interested to see what LWX has to say in a little while and then SPC at 2am but I agree that we'll get something somewhere in the area. I don't know about a tornado watch. How have peoples thoughts changed on watch probability? Watch yes or no: Type of watch: Time issued if yes: I have lowered my prediction to 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 i think shear will probably end up being too much in most instances especially if there is no cape until the convection is more defined (if it ends up so)... it's hard to make real educated guesses i'd definitely be less gung ho about a torn watch at this pt but the risk is there still... see what's up by 10-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 i think shear will probably end up being too much in most instances especially if there is no cape until the convection is more defined (if it ends up so)... it's hard to make real educated guesses i'd definitely be less gung ho about a torn watch at this pt but the risk is there still... see what's up by 10-11 I will make a ballsy call and say showers with an isolated rumble with no watch and 0-1 severe report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I will make a ballsy call and say showers with an isolated rumble with no watch and 0-1 severe report. that's almost as ballsy as saying a hurricane season will peak in september Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 that's almost as ballsy as saying a hurricane season will peak in september Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 20z run of the HRRR showing maybe a line developing tomorrow AM yeesh that looks like all of the moisture got destroyed by the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 we prob want to see some torn warnings go in sc/nc next few hrs... region in front of them is becoming more favorable for such. if we can't get things pumped down there then our chances up here will seemingly be less than hoped. as far as reports... it might be worth thinking that most trees are leafless or much less leafy than spring/summer etc., not to mention the batterings already this yr. i'd still bet there are a few isolated 60+ gusts at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 we prob want to see some torn warnings go in sc/nc next few hrs... region in front of them is becoming more favorable for such. if we can't get things pumped down there then our chances up here will seemingly be less than hoped. as far as reports... it might be worth thinking that most trees are leafless or much less leafy than spring/summer etc., not to mention the batterings already this yr. i'd still bet there are a few isolated 60+ gusts at least. I see SC has a warning or two right now on the national map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Doesn't look very impressive in terms of thermodynamics. Shear is amazing as expected, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 New watch up...creeping closer but from the text of the last mesoscale disco it doesn't look good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Although, there's a warning in SC/NC like Ian was saying would be a good thing. But it's only 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 ECHO! echo echo echo echo cho ho o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 december ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Latest HRRR actually looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Brand new ARW run out of LWX (0z run) for 12z tomorrow - WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 my main concern is still the northern extent.. i think that stuff cranking to the sw will work this way but it may end up just se of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 my main concern is still the northern extent.. i think that stuff cranking to the sw will work this way but it may end up just se of dc. Ditto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I guess Yoda bailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I guess Yoda bailed. he should probably go to sleep so he can wake up early and paste the warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.