Master of Disaster Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 LWX just briefed the DC Metro area for a Severe Thunderstorm threat with highest risk around 4-9am tomorrow morning. Historically speaking, these early morning events can cause some power issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 ARW Local model from LWX (12z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 LWX just briefed the DC Metro area for a Severe Thunderstorm threat with highest risk around 4-9am tomorrow morning. Historically speaking, these early morning events can cause some power issues. What did their confidence sound like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 LWX just briefed the DC Metro area for a Severe Thunderstorm threat with highest risk around 4-9am tomorrow morning. Historically speaking, these early morning events can cause some power issues. Alright, I'll ask. Any mention of a tornado threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Alright, I'll ask. Any mention of a tornado threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What did their confidence sound like? I did email their severe weather guy about an hour ago at LWX... hope I will get an answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I did email their severe weather guy about an hour ago at LWX... hope I will get an answer Often spotty on their email responses. I guess it depends on if they're busy or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Often spotty on their email responses. I guess it depends on if they're busy or not. True... I sent it from my work account Plus I added in a few questions to push it along Dear Sir, I was doing some researching into tonight’s potential threat for severe weather and isolated tornadoes. I was reading some of the skew-t’s and soundings at KEZF, KIAD, KBWI, and KDCA, during the time periods of 03z-15z. These were based off the 12z NAM from today since the 12z GFS wasn’t out yet for me. I was noticing that the SRH values in both the 1km and 0-3 km are very high – over 500/600 m2/s2. I don’t remember seeing values like that this high in the month of December. However, there does not appear to be any CAPE and the LI values are positive. Does this suggest that the storms will not be able to be rooted in the boundary layer? Also, with such high SRH and shear (I see 50-60 kts of 0-6km shear) but literally non-existent CAPE, how is it possible for storms to form with the potential for tornadoes? I appreciate your time reading this and if you can respond, I would greatly appreciate it. I hope this finds you and all at LWX doing well and I hope you all have a great holiday season. Sincerely, Matthew McConnell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Alright, I'll ask. Any mention of a tornado threat? Nope, not a word on that from them. They mentioned damaging winds and very heavy rainfall as the primary threat. Kenny, I was just looking at the WRF as well and it does show a bowing segment over the DC area. As far as confidence, I can only count one other time that they have briefed everyone that wasnt related to a Watch or Warning issuance. The fact that they did indicates they want to give everyone a heads up on an overnight threat is in the pretty high confidence category. Then add that it was their WCM giving the briefing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Where did you find that from? Extracted it from the BUFKIT files for each city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I did email their severe weather guy about an hour ago at LWX... hope I will get an answer SUBJECT: WEENIE EMERGENCY -- HOW MUCH WINDS FOR MY BACKYARD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Nope, not a word on that from them. They mentioned damaging winds and very heavy rainfall as the primary threat. Kenny, I was just looking at the WRF as well and it does show a bowing segment over the DC area. As far as confidence, I can only count one other time that they have briefed everyone that wasnt related to a Watch or Warning issuance. The fact that they did indicates they want to give everyone a heads up on an overnight threat is in the pretty high confidence category. Then add that it was their WCM giving the briefing. It might have been because of the activity in Baltimore with the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Nope, not a word on that from them. They mentioned damaging winds and very heavy rainfall as the primary threat. Kenny, I was just looking at the WRF as well and it does show a bowing segment over the DC area. As far as confidence, I can only count one other time that they have briefed everyone that wasnt related to a Watch or Warning issuance. The fact that they did indicates they want to give everyone a heads up on an overnight threat is in the pretty high confidence category. Then add that it was their WCM giving the briefing. Hopefully you'll post any updates you get from them. Not many of us have a connection to kind of "read" their exact thoughts. I always am stuck with discussions etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 SUBJECT: WEENIE EMERGENCY -- HOW MUCH WINDS FOR MY BACKYARD? But there were some good questions in there that I would like to learn about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 SUBJECT: WEENIE EMERGENCY -- HOW MUCH WINDS FOR MY BACKYARD? I was going to reply that all of them are severe weather guys, but left it alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 SUBJECT: WEENIE EMERGENCY -- HOW MUCH WINDS FOR MY BACKYARD? (Exact Translation Provided by IanTranslation.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I was going to reply that all of them are severe weather guys, but left it alone. When I clicked on severe weather on the LWX website it gave me the head guy. Thats why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Hopefully you'll post any updates you get from them. Not many of us have a connection to kind of "read" their exact thoughts. I always am stuck with discussions etc. Ill PM you with anything I hear. I stopped posting anything I hear or info from the calls because some people were too childish to have an adult discussion about the information. All I got was personal attacks out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 When I clicked on severe weather on the LWX website it gave me the head guy. Thats why. Nothing wrong with that, calm down. Was just saying they ramp up staff for severe weather events, thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 we've warmed nicely today... 63/52 at DCA now with a pretty good SE wind.. that is way above what MOS was showing yesterday though knowing pre-front patterns around here etc should have made people expect 60+ was a good shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 on 11/17 at this time it was 57/53 with an E wind at 7 -- kept warming to 64/59 at mignight again, right now.. 63/52 SSE at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 LWX just briefed the DC Metro area for a Severe Thunderstorm threat with highest risk around 4-9am tomorrow morning. Historically speaking, these early morning events can cause some power issues. Interesting. Why does the timing (e.g. early morning) make a difference with respect to power issues? SUBJECT: WEENIE EMERGENCY -- HOW MUCH WINDS FOR MY BACKYARD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Interesting to see how the cold pool, marine layer and warm front are progressing. It will be fun to see how all of the boundaries interact with the storms. Wind, dewpoints, cloud cover: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 LWX jumped out early with their AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 234 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LATE TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH THE STRONG FORCING CAUSES A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET POSES A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL HELICITY VALUES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL BECOME ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT TO HAPPEN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 on 11/17 at this time it was 57/53 with an E wind at 7 -- kept warming to 64/59 at mignight again, right now.. 63/52 SSE at 12 I am going to be more watching the DP's tonight. The closer we can get the 60 mark.... the better chance we see severe weather IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 on 11/17 at this time it was 57/53 with an E wind at 7 -- kept warming to 64/59 at mignight again, right now.. 63/52 SSE at 12 11/16*** ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 11/16*** ??? yes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I know this is too our south some, but still PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...POTENTIALLY STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES. WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AFTER DARK WARRANTS HEIGHTENED SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. TORNADOES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY FAST-MOVING AND OBSCURED BY RAIN AND DARKNESS. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS TONIGHT. ..RACY.. 11/30/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 2000 TOR Probs from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 2000 TOR Probs from SPC They look identical to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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