Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 no more slight risk Patience... it'll work its way back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Patience... it'll work its way back north lolwut? Get 'em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 LWX HWO updated... calls for threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes tonight and early Wed morning east of the Potomac Highlands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z NAM per Earl Barker giving some ridiculous SRH values for Dec 1 around here in the 0-3km and 1km department... 0-3km SRH at 11PM at KIAD is over 600 and 1km SRH nearing 500. 0-6km shear at 50 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z NAM per Earl Barker giving some ridiculous SRH values for Dec 1 around here in the 0-3km and 1km department... 0-3km SRH at 11PM at KIAD is over 600 and 1km SRH nearing 500. 0-6km shear at 50 kts. I'm jealous... just don't sleep through it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm jealous... just don't sleep through it! I wonder what the new AFD will say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Uh oh AS COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A QLCS ALONG FRONT NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH PERHAPS ONE DOMINANT PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND OF TSTMS FORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN. From SPC 1630 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Uh oh From SPC 1630 OTLK Not for us though right? For areas south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Not for us though right? For areas south? Blue Ridge and Mid-Atlantic states signal us to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Blue Ridge and Mid-Atlantic states signal us to me.. Doesn't look like they moved the probabilities around too much. I think they're referring more to the southern parts of the area rather than our part of the Blue Ridge. Seems like best threat would be from Fredericksburg, VA south. However, with that said HPC has the warm front going well north of the area by 06z maybe like into upper PA and NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Doesn't look like they moved the probabilities around too much. I think they're referring more to the southern parts of the area rather than our part of the Blue Ridge. Seems like best threat would be from Fredericksburg, VA south. However, with that said HPC has the warm front going well north of the area by 06z maybe like into upper PA and NY 2000 OTLK should be interesting. By the way, I forgot that the times had moved forward... so 2000 OTLK will be out by 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z GFS at 06z at KIAD has 0-1km SRH nearing 600 and 0-3km SRH nearing 650... SWEAT around 400 and 0-6km shear around 55 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z GFS 0-3 km Helicity Values Hr 18: MRB: 747 CHO: 533 HGR: 613 Hr. 21 IAD: 904 BWI: 595 DCA: 722 W54 (Westminster,MD): 862 MDT (Harrisburg,PA): 912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z GFS 0-3 km Helicity Values Hr 18: MRB: 747 CHO: 533 HGR: 613 Hr. 21 IAD: 904 BWI: 595 DCA: 722 W54 (Westminster,MD): 862 MDT (Harrisburg,PA): 912 Where did you find that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I see SE winds at IAD and DCA on the 12 PM obs.. is the warm front nearby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I see SE winds at IAD and DCA on the 12 PM obs.. is the warm front nearby? HPC - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Quite a bit of damming though so perhaps it will retreat southward again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 gotta love a trough going neg tilt too bad it's dec.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 one thing about this yr is dynamics have been the story... so if that follows i expect severe wx tomorrow am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 one thing about this yr is dynamics have been the story... so if that follows i expect severe wx tomorrow am So there is no "meh" from you? Who are you and where have you stashed Ian??!?! I'd guess down near RIC would be the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 one thing about this yr is dynamics have been the story... so if that follows i expect severe wx tomorrow am What? Is that you Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What? Is that you Ian? I think somebody has hijacked his account and is holding him hostage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What? Is that you Ian? this yr's been tough... ive busted a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 this yr's been tough... ive busted a few times. This year's definitely been one of the more unusual years as far as setups and forcing is concerned. That being said, I agree with you that (paraphrased) the dynamics are pretty friggen sweet with this system. Severe for the morning hours fo sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 This year's definitely been one of the more unusual years as far as setups and forcing is concerned. That being said, I agree with you that (paraphrased) the dynamics are pretty friggen sweet with this system. Severe for the morning hours fo sho. i'd like to see it all like 6 hrs slower and tilting about that much sooner, but i think we can at least get some severe wind reports and maybe a quick tornado or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 i'd like to see it all like 6 hrs slower and tilting about that much sooner, but i think we can at least get some severe wind reports and maybe a quick tornado or two. True, our area will be a bit lacking. I'm just hyped-up over the potential in VA/NC, because it's pretty awesome for this time of the year. I'll be quite satisfied if there's a wind report IMBY, even if it's a little lackluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 True, our area will be a bit lacking. I'm just hyped-up over the potential in VA/NC, because it's pretty awesome for this time of the year. I'll be quite satisfied if there's a wind report IMBY, even if it's a little lackluster. Why do you think that? SRH is off the charts and good shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Why do you think that? SRH is off the charts and good shear No instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 No instability. I don't think we had any instability for those midnight severe storms a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Why do you think that? SRH is off the charts and good shear I've never been a fan of the northern end of a line of storms Also, I'm concerned about what the actual LL stability will be like. All the dynamics in the world doesn't mean jack if its effects can't be seen at the surface. I don't think we had any instability for those midnight severe storms a few weeks ago. We were a bit better off on 11/16 in the lower-levels compared to tomorrow morning's forecast. That being said, the models could (see: probably are) still underestimating the true instability by a noticeable margin. It'll definitely be something to nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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