northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Opinions are all good and fine but you think you know better than HPC? Please give reasoning (scientific reasoning) when claiming the HPC is wrong. No, I am not claiming the HPC is wrong, but they were off on the last storm, just to mention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Afternoon Update: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Late posting lol. For a moment I thought they updated their long term before I realized it was the afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 No, I am not claiming the HPC is wrong, but they were off on the last storm, just to mention Still...you should still give sound reasoning as to why you think they might be off on this storm. You cannot make claims like "that HPC map looks weird" without evidence. Simply saying they were off on the last event is not enough. It would be helpful to members that are still learning (most of us) if you gave some extra support for your theory. Not trying to crack down on you or anything but just a suggestion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Late posting lol. For a moment I thought they updated their long term before I realized it was the afternoon update. I said it was the afternoon update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I said it was the afternoon update! And yet some people miss the first line *DOH!* lol fail on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Still...you should still give sound reasoning as to why you think they might be off on this storm. You cannot make claims like "that HPC map looks weird" without evidence. Simply saying they were off on the last event is not enough. It would be helpful to members that are still learning (most of us) if you gave some extra support for your theory. Not trying to crack down on you or anything but just a suggestion! OK!!!!!, i am just trying to still learn also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 NAM Model showing better warm sector moving further north, more convection pushing north, and higher temps 06z NAM from earlier Current NAM Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SN Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 With heavy precip rates and crashing 850s, anyone think we can get a few back end flakes? Really unlikely because of sfc temps, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 With heavy precip rates and crashing 850s, anyone think we can get a few back end flakes? Really unlikely because of sfc temps, but who knows. shows 2-6+ inches of snow from backside precip for Wednesday into Thursday in the Appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 shows minimum dew points going to 52 degrees+ in the upper ohio valley into mid Atlantic, which is sufficient for severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I'll guess we'll get gusty showers and that'll be it. Wind shear is going to be amazing but we have to see if that can count for anything. Forecast soundings are certainly very impressive in the wind category. 60kts a few thousand feet up! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Showing numerous showers and thunderstorms in a line from the Ohio Valley to Southeast for 12z on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 shows minimum dew points going to 52 degrees+ in the upper ohio valley into mid Atlantic, which is sufficient for severe image I'll tell you this one more time. All surface temps are not created equal. You cannot just look at the surface... you have to look at the entire column of air to determine the atmosphere's ability to produce severe weather. The warm sector will not be going that far north on Monday, and if you knew how to analyze fronts on a map you would see that the HPC's forecast lines up well with the models' forecasts. Not saying the HPC is never wrong, but they won't be 600-800 miles wrong pretty much ever... especially not just two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 good use of smiley but somewhat predictable ... i didnt abandon 40S, have been part of things going on there... have no interest in battling either. just expressing a thought. Fair enough. Between you doing everything you could to drive traffic away from here/Eastern to 40S and your frequent disparaging of Mark's forecasts, the irony was just too rich for me to pass on. Unlike you, I see no need to harass people who chose to post at one place instead of the other. I see no reason why both places can't peacefully coexist. They offer entirely different approaches to discussing weather. Some folks will like it here, some will like it there, and some will like both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Slight risk extended northward to around DC on the 1730z update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 ...ERN GULF COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...MUCAPE OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AS FAR N AS ERN/CNTRL VA AS THE IN-SITU COLD WEDGE ERODES TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. QLCS IS LIKELY AT 12Z TUESDAY FROM MIDDLE TN SWD INTO THE MOBILE BAY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY INTO ERN TN...NWRN GA...AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE A 45-55 KT SSWLY LLJ ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A REDUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS TO ESCALATE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/E OF THE APPALACHIANS... PARTICULARLY SC NWD INTO ERN/CNTRL VA. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK THAT AIDS IN MORE NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG UVV...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KTS OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALL BE FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT QLCS SEVERE MODES. HAVE EXPANDED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES NWD ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK INTO MOST OF ERN/CNTRL VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Maybe a repeat of those storms we had a week or so back around midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Maybe a repeat of those storms we had a week or so back around midnight? Except less intense probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOVING ACROSS CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THE NIGHT TUES NIGHT...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL HOLD MAINLY OVER THE MTNS/MTN VALLEYS...ADVANCING EASTWARD ONCE THE LOW PASSES THROUGH. EXTREMELY MOISTURE RICH AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN...WITH PWATS JUMPING OVER 1.50 INCH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE METRO/BAY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THESE SPOTS WILL ALSO HAVE THE LEAST DURATION OF RAINFALL...LIKELY STAYING MOSTLY DRY UNTIL THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE STARTING 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING...AND EASTWARD TO THE METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN BEFORE THESE TIMES BUT WE ARE TARGETING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...EAST OF THE LOW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND WITH WINDS RACING...STRONG OR EVEN POTENTIALLY SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF DC METRO. THIS WOULD BE IN A BRIEF WINDOW RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 My tl;dr... Take the 11/16 event and shift it 150-200 miles south, taking out a few reports as you go. Agree with the disc. that the main action will be just south of D.C. through NC, but severe is still possible up through SoPA and into NJ. The full write-up... is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 The thunder line shifts further north, and severe probs might be needed the whole way into the upper ohio valley but who knows, i haven't checked the models as of recent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Saw the HPC update just now and had to lol at myself, HPC, this thread, etc... warm sector now analyzed by the HPC to get into eastern Ohio. That's for tomorrow afternoon. If it verifies, I will applaud northpitt's call, even though he used the wrong reasoning to arrive to his conclusion. A little OT, but there's another boundary that actually created a tornado in northern Missouri earlier. This system's throwing all sorts of curve-balls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Saw the HPC update just now and had to lol at myself, HPC, this thread, etc... warm sector now analyzed by the HPC to get into eastern Ohio. That's for tomorrow afternoon. If it verifies, I will applaud northpitt's call, even though he used the wrong reasoning to arrive to his conclusion. A little OT, but there's another boundary that actually created a tornado in northern Missouri earlier. This system's throwing all sorts of curve-balls! You know flooding and high winds are going to be a big threat also, in the Pitttsburgh Area we got an advisory for 45 to 55mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 This is really interesting!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Going to be a long week between this and snow threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EAST OF THE LOW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND WITH WINDS RACING...STRONG OR EVEN POTENTIALLY SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF DC METRO. THIS WOULD BE FM ABT 04-12Z WED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EAST OF THE LOW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND WITH WINDS RACING...STRONG OR EVEN POTENTIALLY SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF DC METRO. THIS WOULD BE FM ABT 04-12Z WED Great... 2-8 AM in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Interesting... GFS at 36 sets a precip maxim in N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I thought that last forecaster was full of hot air over at the HPC... the forecast went back to an occluded front down through KY to the TN border as was close to the original forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 no more slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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