Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 8:48 PM, FiveAlarmPhotography said: Who thinks a watch will go up and when? 35 percent chance guess from me. And 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 8:50 PM, Kmlwx said: 35 percent chance guess from me. And 2am I'll raise. 40% and 1 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 8:53 PM, yoda said: I'll raise. 40% and 1 AM Oh daring are we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 100% chance of a TOR watch for the D.C. area and south. Issued at 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 8:55 PM, Kmlwx said: Oh daring are we? I will make final call after the 0100 SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 8:56 PM, Ellinwood said: 100% chance of a TOR watch for the D.C. area and south. Issued at 3am. Define your area. Is that like Montgomery Co. as well or literally DC south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 8:58 PM, yoda said: I will make final call after the 0100 SPC OTLK Ellinwood is going bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 8:58 PM, Kmlwx said: Define your area. Is that like Montgomery Co. as well or literally DC south? D.C. area = D.C. metro, so MoCo is included. On 11/30/2010 at 8:58 PM, Kmlwx said: Ellinwood is going bullish. I've watched this thing for too long to not get in a TOR watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 8:58 PM, Kmlwx said: Ellinwood is going bullish. I want to as well.. but I am going to hold on to some of my severe weather chips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 8:59 PM, yoda said: I want to as well.. but I am going to hold on to some of my severe weather chips Probably last decent threat until spring so you may want to go all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 8:59 PM, Ellinwood said: D.C. area = D.C. metro, so MoCo is included. I've watched this thing for too long to not get in a TOR watch There's the Ellinwood we all know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 9:01 PM, Kmlwx said: Probably last decent threat until spring so you may want to go all in I want one last look at some new info before pushing all the chips in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 9:01 PM, Kmlwx said: There's the Ellinwood we all know! That, and I wasn't bullish enough on the 11/16 forecast... Quote A mesoscale discussion for this area will probably be put up in the evening, with a 30-50% chance of a TOR watch in the next 24 hours. I won’t expect to see more than a half-dozen severe weather reports in the region today, with no more than 1-2 tornadoes. It’s another day of SPC hyping it up for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 agree we should get a torn watch out of this, though how far north not sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 we didnt get a watch on 11/17 did we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 9:05 PM, Ian said: agree we should get a torn watch out of this, though how far north not sure... I think up to the Mason-Dixon line will be the extreme limit depending on the movement of the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 9:06 PM, Ian said: we didnt get a watch on 11/17 did we? My mistake... it was a severe thunderstorm watch: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0742.html TOR watch (issued on 11/16) only made it up through central VA. And look where the tornadoes actually verified Can't win 'em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 9:06 PM, Ian said: we didnt get a watch on 11/17 did we? No, but I thought there was a small oddly shaped one to the East on 11/16, or maybe I'm thinking of the previous event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 9:08 PM, Ellinwood said: My mistake... it was a severe thunderstorm watch: http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0742.html TOR watch (issued on 11/16) only made it up through central VA. And look where the tornadoes actually verified Can't win 'em all. hmm, maybe just a stw then tonight. one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 9:05 PM, Ian said: agree we should get a torn watch out of this, though how far north not sure... My guess is Yoda will get the watch not so sure about the MD crew. (St. Mary's etc should be fine too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 15z SREF run is showing up on SPC's website now looks like it upped supercell parameters a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 9:39 PM, Kmlwx said: 15z SREF run is showing up on SPC's website now looks like it upped supercell parameters a bit. Define "a bit" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Seems Atlanta just got hit hard My link http://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-storm-major-damage-759044.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I say we just got to watch the triple point and see where it places when it moves over the region. If your just SE of it when the front passes, you have the best chance of seeing some action tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 18z run of the ARW holds onto this line thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 20z run of the HRRR showing maybe a line developing tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 11/17 developed coming out of the mtns and into the area too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I know this is an IMBY question but o well. My sister and her kids are leaving BWI between 6-7AM and flying to Orlando, FL. Will the possible severe weather be out of the area between that time or not? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 11:55 PM, FiveAlarmPhotography said: I know this is an IMBY question but o well. My sister and her kids are leaving BWI between 6-7AM and flying to Orlando, FL. Will the possible severe weather be out of the area between that time or not? Thanks. Looks potentially active at that time. Potentially being the key word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 On 11/30/2010 at 11:55 PM, Kmlwx said: Looks potentially active at that time. Potentially being the key word. Thanks! Yeah, I already told her to expect delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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